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Scheme to restore confidence

actually undermines it

Martin Woffs Page 12

WEDNESDAY MARCH 10 1999

Nato expansion Why weapons makers are circling eastern Europe Page 3

Movie it

Fear of roving in Las Vegas Pages

Factory asteiatiOES

Simulation software cuts development time

Page IS

WORLD NEWS

French police round up Basque terror suspects

BUSINESS NEWS

Telecom Italia may grant new voting

rights in bid battle

. French police yesterday arrested the alleged head of the military wing of the Basque separatist movement Eta and five other members. The most dramatic action taken against the group since last September's ceasefire In Spain came as Spanish prime minister Jose Maria Aznar visited Paris. Europe, Page 2

Holbrooke to press Milosevic Veteran US negotiator Richard Holbrooke will today urge Slobo- dan Milosevic, the Yugoslav president, to give up his hardline position before Kosovo peace talks resume on Monday.

Europe, Page 2

Solatia suggests aid for Balkans Nato secretary general Javier Soiana wants the west to offer the Balkans political and eco- nomic benefits as well as military security. Nato, Page 3; Editorial Comment, Page 13

•Mr Yen’ set to move on

Esuke Sakakibara, known as “Mr Yen* for his reputed influence over the foreign exchange mar- kets. is expected to leave his post as Japan’s vice-minister of finance for international affairs this summer. Page 14

Khmer Rouge chief charged Cambodia laid charges against Khmer Rouge chief Ta Mole making him the first member of the group set to answer directly for the deaths of some 1.7m of hrs countrymen.

French Hood ferial ends A French court acquitted former prime minister Laurent Fabius and one of his ex-ministers In an Aids-related case involving tainted blood. Europe, Page 2

Bomb blast lots German show A bomb damaged a World War Two exhibition in the German city of SaarbrOcken that has angered far-right groups with its daim that ordinary German soldiers took part in Nazi crimes.

India- Pakistan deal Hose India and Pakistan are dose to an agreement that would mark a big improvement in their rela- tions. Only details are said to need settling before they agree a cross-border electricity deal.

Ada, Page 6

Iranian president visits Italy Iranian president Mohammad Khatami began a state visit to Italy, seen as opening a new epoch in relations between the Islamic, state and the west The stuffing face of Iran, Page 13

Ecuador crisis deepens Banks were shut for the second day running in Ecuador and labour unions called a general strfre. Americas, Page 5

UK chancellor cuts taxes The UK government slashed taxes to the lowest levels in a generation as finance minister Gordon Brown unveiled what he called “a Budget for Britain to succeed in the new economy and lead hi the new century." British economy. Page 8

Garik farmers on the march Spanish garlic farmers plan to demand European Union action to block rising imports of Chi- nese garlic. Spain is Europe's leading garlic producer.

Telecom Italia is considering enfranchising its non-voting savings shareholders as part of its defence against Olivetti's €53bn (S57bn) hostile bid. The move could make Telecom Italia a much harder target for Olivetti to swallow. Companies and markets, Page 15; Lex, Page 14; Analysis, Page 16

Ahold, Dutch supermarkets group, built on its US presence with a $1 .75bn agreement to buy Pathmark Stores, which runs 132 outlets around New York. Com- panies and markets, Page 15

Endesa, Spain's leading power group, will have a second oppor- tunity later this month to gain outright control of Enersis of Chile, its main investment target in Latin America. International companies. Page 16

A single stock market to trade the shares of Europe’s top 300 companies moved closer when the London and Frankfurt stock exchanges unveiled plans to har- monise share trading. Compa- nies and markets, Page 15

Fiat, the Italian motor manufacturer, said it would soon issue a €1bn five-year loan to take advantage of favourable market conditions. International companies, Page 16

De Bams, South African diamond group announced a halving of its total net profit last year to $61 7m from $1.23bn in 1997. Interna- tional companies. Page 17

Microsoft is to announce a partnership with China Telecom and the Chinese government in a project linking more than 40 gov- ernment ministries to the internet Asia news. Page 6

Andersen Consulting shrugged off any effects of its separation from sister firm Arthur Andersen with a 25 per cent surge in 1998 global revalues to $8.3bn. Interna- tional companies. Page 17

Germany's main energy utilities pulled out of “consensus" talks with the government on setting a timetable for the closure of the country's nuclear power stations. European news. Page 2

Gucci president Domenico De Sole has agreed to reopen nego- tiations with French luxury goods group LVMH in a bid to resolve their legal battle. International companies. Page 17

British American Tobacco, which next week publishes details of its proposed £5.28bn ($8.5bn) take- j over of Rothmans International, said its underlying performance was positive in spite of a 16 per cent fall in profits. Companies and markets. Page 15; Zurich adds charge. Page 17

Roche chairman Fritz Gerber plans to step down in 2001 and' hand over the Swiss group’s chairmanship to chief executive Franz Humer. International companies. Page 16

World Equity Markets

The latest trends and data from more than 50 national martats at a glance Page 31

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EU and US make first moves to resolve banana war

BRITAIN, SWEDEN. DENMARK AND ITALY THREATEN TO FORCE THROUGH LIBERALISATION

Ultimatum to Brussels on milk reform

By IfichaeJ Smith in Brussels

Four European Union countries yesterday threatened to force through full liberalisation of the union's milk market next year unless other governments agreed to its reform.

The warning came as EU farm ministers, meeting in Brussels, criticised proposals by Germany that would dilute a European Commission blueprint for wide- ranging changes to the common agricultural policy.

Diplomats said chances were rising for a deal this week and it was likely to be closer to the commission's proposals than those of the German government

The commission wants to cut guaranteed prices for beet cere- als and milk by 30, 20 and 15 per cent respectively to enable the EU to enlarge eastwards and increase exports.

Last week Germany shocked fellow governments by suggest- ing the cuts be limited to 20 per cent 10 per cent and nQ to save money. Price cuts are expensive because the EU is committed to paying fanners compensation for thprn. Germany said plans to lift

production-limiting milk quotas should be shelved.

Nick Brown, UK agriculture

minister, said yesterday Britain. Sweden, Denmark and Italy were not prepared to accept the status quo on milk and, in the absence of reform, would block a continu- ation of current quota and price arrangements, which end next April.

"It is not my preferred option," said Mr Brown. “My over-riding objective is a workable refotm. But I am not willing to vote for the continuation of quotas if milk remains unreformed." The gov- ernments of Sweden. Denmark and Italy agreed, he said.

The production-limiting milk quotas regime was introduced in 1984 and has remained unchanged since.

Diplomats said yesterday that one option was to delay comple- tion of milk reforms by two years to 2006. Some countries could agree a lower price cut than the commission has suggested on beef - with 20 per cent one possi- bility - although most wanted to stick to 20 per cent on cereals.

Germany, in its role as EU president, was yesterday talking with the commission on a com- promise to present to farm minis- ters on CAP reform today. Offi- cials said the compromise would draw on suggestions from all countries including its own.

Gorman agriculture maiteter Kari-Hefnz Funks, right, talks to European farm commissioner Franz FtseWer before a meetrog in Brussels yesterday

Several ministers said yester- day that Bonn's dilution propos- als - made in the name of Ger- many’s farm ministry and not the presidency - were unaccept- able.

Loyola de Palacio, Spanish agriculture minister, said she could not agree to the German proposals. “We need to do a proper reform." she said. Joe Walsh, Irish farm minister, said the German paper did not form the basis for a compromise.

France’s Jean Glavany has wel- comed Germany's proposals, hav- ing consistently argued that the commission's proposals are too radical and are unnecessary.

Yesterday Mr Glavany adopted a more conciliatory tone, suggest- ing a deal could be achieved by the end of the week.

Asked if delaying milk reform could be part of the deal, he said; “If we really want to make a mistake, the later the better”.

R JR Nabisco sells global tobacco arm

By Andrew Edgec&ffe-Johnson in New York

RJR Nabisco stunned analysts yesterday by selling its inter- national tobacco business for SShn to Japan Tobacco. The move paves the way for a separation of its food and US tobacco busi- nesses. which some had thought impossible.

RJR Nabisco, which has Camel cigarettes and Oreo cookies among its brands, headed off shareholder pressure for a break-up by saying it would spin off shares in the domestic tobacco business to shareholders.

Japan Tobacco, which controls four-fifths of its domestic market but has a limited overseas pres-

ence. is paying about 30 per cent more for RJR International than analysts had thought it might fetch.

Its offer, which includes taking on S200m of RJR International’s debt, is thought to have trumped bids from Philip Morris of the US, Seita of France and Tabacalera of Spain. Philip Morris said it exam- ined the business “thoroughly", but was constrained by tax and antitrust problems.

As well as businesses spanning Asia and Eastern Europe. Japan Tobacco will take the inter- national rights to Camel. Win- ston and Salem cigarettes.

Nyren Scott Malden of Credit Suisse First Boston said: "This price Is amazing. This valuation

benchmark could be used to up ratings across the sector."

Japan Tobacco is paying 15 times operating cash flow, almost twice the multiple BAT Industries paid for Rothmans.

Shares in RJR Nabisco were up STi to S29Tz in afternoon trading. Analysts said the market had previously placed a negative val- uation on its tobacco assets, and feared a break-up was impossible, because of the threat of smoking- related litigation.

The tax-free spin-off of shares in RJ Reynolds Tobacco, the domestic cigarettes business, will leave RJR Nabisco as a holding company for its 80.6 per cent stake in Nabisco Holdings, its food division, which already has

a separate New York Stock Exchange listing.

The separation will not. how- ever, insulate Nabisco from future tobacco litigation against the parent company - analysts bad feared that the threat of "fraudulent conveyance" claims against RJR Nabisco could pre- vent a break-up of the group.

Steven Goldstone. RJR Nabis- co’s chairman and chief execu- tive, said the food and tobacco businesses would “best be able to achieve their full potential under separate ownership structures".

The group would also reap “substantial" cost savings.

Lex, Page 14

BAT still upbeat, Page 15

By Guy de Jonqureres in London aid Peter Norman in Strasbourg

The US and the European Union appeared to be edging towards an attempt to settle their conflict over trade in bananas last night that would avert a showdown in the World Trade Organisation.

A senior EU official said that the European Commission planned a high-level diplomatic approach to the US in the next 48 hours to determine whether it was “in the market for a deal".

He said Brussels believed the dispute could be settled before a WTO panel ruled on it later this month or early next, provided President Bill Clinton's adminis- tration was ready to sell a deal to Congress.

Sir Leon Brittan, trade commis- sioner, told the European parlia- ment in Strasbourg that the Com- mission was urgently seeking a solution and had begun informal exploratory’ talks with Washing- ton. Rita Hayes, US ambassador, said in Geneva that the talks had yielded some progress.

Robert Mallett. deputy US com- merce secretary, added to hopes of a breakthrough. He said in Rome there was a “window of opportunity" for negotiating a solution but it was up to the EU to make an acceptable proposal.

The conflict was brought to a head last week when the US began implementing a threat to impose sanctions on more than $500m (€459) of European

exports. It said the EU had not complied with a 1997 WTO ruling against its banana regime which favours African. Caribbean and Pacific i ACPj imports.

Although the regime has been modified. Washington says it still discriminates against U-S distrib- utors of Latin American fruit. The EU says the US sanctions are illegal.

EU officials said they and the US had gone a long way towards identifying the basis for a possi- ble settlement when Peter Scher, US special trade ambassador, vis- ited Brussels 10 days ago.

“The talks clarified what the US might need, and we made clear how far we might be able to move." an EU official said.

US officials were less positive, saying Mr Scher had made sev- eral proposals but the Commis- sion had appeared to resist them.

Sony restructuring plan lifts shares 9%

By Mlchtyn Sakamoto in Tokyo

Shares of Sony jumped 9 per cent yesterday after the leading elec- tronics and entertainment group unveiled an aggressive restruct- uring plan that would see the loss of 17.000 jobs, 10 per rent of it worldwide workforce, and the closure of 15 of its 70 factories.

The plan is aimed at refocusing Sony’s traditional electronics businesses, which have been suf- fering from the strength of the yen and product price erosion, on internet opportunities. It is part of a far-reaching reorganisation aimed at ensuring survival in an increasingly competitive and East-moving market

"This is not a mere reorganisa- tion. It is the only way for the Sony group to remain a young and active group in the 2 1st cen- tury," said Norio Ohga, chairman mid chief executive.

Nobuyuki Mei, president said: “Over the next three years, Sony will invest aggressively so that our electronics business, which is our core business, can evolve to best meet the needs of a network- centric world," but added “We want to look at those business areas that we don't need.”

The electronics group, which provides about 60 per cent of

of the group’s three main busi- ness pillars, together with enter- tainment and Insurance and finance businesses. But the re- organisation will enable Sony to consolidate and assume greater control over those units that are critical for the shift of focus.

As part of that move, Sony is taking three of its listed subsid- iaries - Sony Music Entertain- ment (Japan), Sony Chemicals and Sony Precision Technology - back into the group as wholly- owned subsidiaries. In the fast- moving age of the internet, "speed is very important”, said Mr Mei.

Within the electronics group, the existing operations will be consolidated into three segments focused on networks - the home network company, the personal IT network company and the core technology and network com- pany.

Sony Computer Entertainment

- which provided more than a third of Sony’s operating profits in the nine months to December

- will no longer be independent but part of this group.

“Sony's short-term problems have not disappeared, but its growth potential has increased,” said Hitoshi Kmiyama at Merrill Lynch in Tokyo.

total revenues, will remain the

biggest revenue earner and one Japan wakes up, Page 17

CONTENTS

World Nows: North America 5 International 4, UK 8,9 European News: 2,3 RfeBagennnt/Technology: 10

Comment & Analysis: 12,13

Companies & Finance: 15-18 International 16,17 UK 18,

Capital Markets 20 World Stock Markets: 26-32

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FINANCIAL. TIMES WEDNESDAY MARCHTO 1999

WORLD mNEWS

EUROPE

BASQUE SEPARATISTS CROSS-BORDER SECURITY CO-OPERATION GROWS 8ETWEEN FRANCE AND SPAIN

French police round up Eta suspects

By Robert Graham hi Paris and Tom Bums in Madrid

French police yesterday rounded up the suspected head of the military wing of Eta. the Basque separatist movement, along with five other members, in the most dramatic action taken against the group since a ceasefire came into effect in Spain last year.

The move coincided with a visit to the French capital by Jose Marta Aznar, the Span- ish prime minister. It also underscored France's deter- mination to help the Spanish authorities prevent Eta reor- ganising its structures dur- ing the ceasefire that began last September.

The alleged head of Eta’s military arm. Javier Arizeu- ren-Ruiz. “Kantauri”, was detained along with three others in an hotel in the 11th district of Paris. Two more Eta members were picked up in a fiat in the 15th district, which police said was being used as a logistical base. All six were armed, but the antt- tenorist police involved in the operation reported no shots being exchanged.

Romania pressed on debt refinance

By Arkady Ostrovsky in London and Joe Cook in Bucharest

The International Monetary Fund is stepping up pressure on Romania to seek refinanc- ing of $$63ra of its external debt which falls due later this year, a move which could result in the country's default on its international bonds.

Emmanuel Zervoudakis. head of the-EMF mission for Romania, said the release of the IMF financing package, which could be about S450m this year, needed to stabilise its economy, depended on Romania's ability to renego- tiate at least 80 per cent of its international bond pay- ments Tailing due in May and June.

Mr Zervoudakis said the IMF had advised Romania to seek refinancing of its inter- national bonds from Nomura and Merrill Lynch, the origi- nal bond underwriters.

“We should not be faced with a situation where the money from the IMF would be used to repay private creditors." he said.

However, bankers said international bonds could not be rolled over or refin- anced in the same way as bank loans, because they were tradeable instruments.

“The IMF seems to assume that banks keep those bonds on their books, but they have been sold to investors a long time ago and the bur- den will be on the bond holder and not on their underwriters.” said Juan Del Azar, managing director for emerging markets trading at Merrill Lynch.

Andrew Kenningham, emerging markets analyst at Merrill Lynch, said the only I way to restructure an inter- I national bond was to default | in order to reschedule pay- ments to bond holders.

Adrian Vasilescu, a direc- tor of the National Bank of Romania, said: “Romania has always paid its debts and will continue to do so. As a last resort, our strategy is to roll over external debt, not to postpone it”

FINANCIAL TIMES Pubtebed by The Fmamal Tuna I Europe) GmbH. NibdungenplaU .1. £0318 Frank - fart ora Main, uoinany Telephone ■*■*49 89 158 *50. Fai +*49 69 596 mi. Rcpn- senicd in Frankfort by Cotin A. Rennud u Genduflsfubrer and in London by David CM. Bed Chairman, and Alan C Miller. Dqsiiy Chairman. The shareholder of the Finaaml Time (Europe) GmbH is Pearson Overseas Holdings Linn led. 3 Bur- lington Gardens. London. WtX ILE. Shareholder of ibir company is Parson pic, RgBIcrcd ai the same address GERMANY:

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Publish inn Pkeliot. P. ttaravufia. 42 Roe La Boctie. 7500$ PARIS. Telephone lOli 5376 8254. Fax (Ml 5376 8253 Printer S.A. Nord Eclair. 15/21 Roe de Carre. F-5910O R outran Cedes I. Editor. Richard Lambert. ISSN 114.8-2753. Commission Panuirc No 67H08D.

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Lionel Jospin, (right) France’s prime minister, meats his Spanish counterpart Jose Marfa Aznar in Parte yesterday. French poDce yesterday arrested Javier Arizetqnen-flUiz (ter right}, the suspected head of the miitary wing of the Basque separatist group Eta AP

French judicial authorities were yesterday expecting Spain to make a formal extradition request for the six arrested persons, five men and a woman.

The round-up was pre- ceded by a visit last Friday

to Paris by the Spanish inte- rior minister, Jaime Mayor Oreja. He is understood to have expressed to Jean- Pierre Chevgnement. his French counterpart, the con- cerns of Spanish intelligence that Eta was taking advan-

tage of the ceasefire to rebuild its military organisa- tion. damaged by infiltration and earlier arrests.

Two weeks ago. the sepa- ratist group had said it reserved the right to self-de- fence and to “act in order to

maintain necessary* provi- sions”. French and Spanish intelligence have recently monitored a number of car robberies in France that have been carried out by Eta activists. The vehictes were believed to have been used

KOSOVO CONFLICT YUGOSLAV PRESIDENT UNDER PRESSURE OVER PEACE DEAL

Holbrooke to press Milosevic

By Guy Dhimora in Belgrade

Veteran US negotiator I Richard Holbrooke, follow- ing where several European foreign ministers have failed before him, will attempt today to persuade Slobodan Milosevic, the Yugoslav pres- ident. to back down from his hardline position before Kos- ovo peace talks resume in Paris next Monday.

The US State Department said Mr Holbrooke would press Belgrade to accept in full the agreement drafted during 17 days of talks in France last month. The deal provides Tor broad autonomy for the Serbian province and its ethnic Albanian majority.

as well as 28.000 Nato troops to keep the peace.

Mr Milosevic has rejected both elements and over the past month has sent away the foreign ministers of Britain. Norway and Ger- many empty-handed. Euro- pean diplomats were con- cerned that Mr Holbrooke had been given leeway by Madeleine Albright. US sec- retary of state, to cut a deal in Belgrade that they too will be forced to accept.

But they also recognised that Mr Holbrooke, who negotiated an end to the Bos- nian civil war. was the only man Mr Milosevic would deal with. On his last trip to Belgrade. Chris Hill, the

chief US mediator at last month's talks did not even get an audience.

“The Yugoslav side has been tough and uncompro- mising. .Meanwhile, there is fighting which concerns us greatly in parts of Kosovo." Mr Holbrooke said on arrival. He made no direct reference to Washington's repeated threats ot Nato air strikes should Belgrade block n peace deal hut said he would warn Mr Milosevic of the US "view of the conse- quences' if the situation did not improve dramatically.

Mr Holbrookes mild choice of words reflects seri- ous divisions among Euro- pean governments over

using air strikes to force a political settlement

Last October, after a gov- ernment offensive that cre- ated 300.000 refugees and killed many civilians. Nato’s threat carried credibility, allowing Mr Holbrooke to persuade Mr Milosevic to adhere to a ceasefire, reduce his forces in Kosovo and accept 2,000 unarmed moni- tors. "That credibility' is no longer there.” one European diplomat commented. Also at stake is the credibility of Mr Holbrooke himself as he struggles to win political support for his nomination as ambassador to the UN.

Renewed fighting yester- day between Serbian secu-

C0NSENSUS NEGOTIATIONS UTILITIES WANT RESOLUTION OF TAX DISPUTE FIRST

German energy sector pulls out of nuclear power talks

Bv Rafali Atkins hi Boihi nuclear newer. The govern- faces in reaching an arnica- German unemoloi

Germany’s energy Industry yesterday pulled out of talks with the government on set- ting a timetable for the clo- sure of the country's nuclear power stations.

Chairmen of the main energy utilities withdrew from so-called “consensus" talks with the government, pending resolution of a sepa- rate dispute over the tax burden they face as a result of legislation introduced by Oskar Lafontaine, finance minister.

After a meeting between industry leaders and Chan- cellor Gerhard Schrader, Dietmar Kuhnt, chairman of RWE. the Essen-based power and industrial group, said that only after the tax issues had been considered could discussions take place on

nuclear power. The govern- ment said it expected the talks to resume after Easter, but the energy companies were privately sceptical.

Mr Schroder is seeking industry agreement on a phased shutdown of Ger- many's IS nuclear power sta- tions. The Bonn government had already been forced into a series of retreats before yesterday’s meeting.

Last month, the govern- ment dropped plans for an early ban on the reprocess- ing of nuclear waste follow- ing strong protests from the energy industry. Later. JQr- gen Trittin, the Green envi- ronment minister, shelved the remainder of his pro- posed legislation that paved the way for a shutdown.

However, yesterday’s meeting highlighted the dif- ficulties Mr Schrfider still

faces in reaching an arnica ble agreement on nuclear power. Veba. the Diisseldorf- based energy and industry group, described the meet- ing’s atmosphere as "hard”.

Failure to reach agree- ment would further heighten tension between Mr Schro- der and his coalition partner, the Green party.

The finance ministry is to conduct talks with the energy industry about the impact of changes to the tax treatment of their massive reserves. The utilities esti- mate they face paying an additional DM25bn (C12.78hn. $i3.92bn> tax as a result c«r Mr Lafontaine’s reforms, due to obtain their final parliamentary approval on March 19. The finance ministry estimates the cor- rect figure to be about DMlObn.

German unemployment fell unexpectedly by 6.000 to 4.076m. or 10.5 per cent of the workforce, last month after seasonal adjustment, according to figures released yesterday. The fell followed a revised drop of 66.000 in January.

However, the latest figures did little to assuage fears that unemployment will remain around the current level for most of this year, with recent high wage settle- ments increasing labour costs.

Unadjusted unemploy- ment. which receives more attention in Germany, rose 0.700 in February to 4.465m. Separate figures from the federal statistics office showed employment rose slightly last year to 33.92m - after falling continually since 1991.

Haider closer to election victory

By Eric Frey in Vienna

Former French PM cleared in infected blood case

By Robert Graham in Paris

A special French court yesterday cleared Laurent Fabius. a former Socialist prime minister, of all respon- sibility for blood supplies contaminated at the onset of the Aids epidemic in the early 1980s.

Sitting for the first time to try* crimes alleged against serving members of govern- ment. the Court of Justice of the Republic also acquitted Georgina Dufotx. social affairs minister in Mr Fab- ius’ 1985 cabinet.

However. Edmond Herv6, the cabinet's health minis- ter. was found guilty of fail- ing to implement screening of blood donors and for not recalling for tests persons who had been given Infected blood transfusions.

A total of 1.348 haemo- philiacs were infected by blood transfusions during

the 1980s, of whom 625 died. A further 4,000 to 5,000 per- sons given blood transfu- sions were infected - giving

France a much higher rate of HIV infection than any other country in Europe.

Despite pinning responsi- bility to Mr Herv6 for the deaths of two haemophiliacs during the period in 1985 when his ministry should have introduced proper screening measures on blood supplies, the former minister was given no sentence. This, coupled with the absolution of Mr Fabius. provoked unease among representa- tives of tbe victims, who were unable to take part in the proceedings.

Tbe judgment now opens the way for a final case in the criminal courts against some 30 senior civil servants on counts of manslaughter, negligence and endangering public health for their alleged role in the sorry tale of France’s contaminated blood scandal.

Most of these civil ser- vants were called as wit- nesses in the Fabius trial. But some either declined to appear or limited their testi-

mony to reading prepared statements to avoid incrimi- nating themselves.

As a result the trial did little to draw out evidence and the families of victims felt the accused were given too much protection. This, they said yesterday, had allowed Mr Fabius, currently speaker of the national assembly, to emerge fully vindicated.

Lawyers for Mr Fabius were able to demonstrate he was unaware of efforts by his own advisers to delay the introduction of proper screening until a test devel- oped by Diagnostics Pasteur, the French laboratory, was ready to compete with one already produced by Abbott of the US.

The verdict had been widely anticipated when at tbe end of tbe three-week long hearing the prosecution said there was no ease to answer. The health and social affairs ministers were nevertheless criticised for failing to give proper impor-

tance to the health issues raised by the Aids scare.

The court was composed of three professional judges and 1 2 parliamentarians - seven from the right and five from the left. Three judges voted for Mr Fabius to be found guilty, 12 for his acquittal In the case of Ms Dufolx, a minority of five judges sought her conviction for failing to pay sufficient attention to the warning signs of the risks arising from infected blood.

As health minister. Mr Herv£ was most directly con- cerned with the Aids epi- demic. But one of the rea- sons for which eight of the 15 judges backed his convic- tion was a belief he had devoted too much time to his i

political activities as mayor i of Rennes and not enough to his ministry'.

Despite the lenient verdict, politicians yesterday voiced fears that too little had been done to clarify their future responsibility for administra- tive decisions. !

Austria’s far-right party leader J6rg Haider appears likely to be elected governor of the province of Carinthia, in what would amount to a dramatic political comeback.

Mr Haider’s Freedom party won a decisive victory in local elections in Carinthia last Sunday, but he still requires votes from his political opponents if he is to win when the new regional assembly elects a governor within the next month.

The Social Democratic party and the conservative People's party, which make up Austria's ruling coalition and suffered heavy losses in Sunday’s vote, yesterday reaffirmed their opposition to Mr Haider's candidacy. But they also indicated they would not feel able to pre- vent the charismatic popu- list from winning tbe gover- norship.

Both parties fear a back- lash if they should be seen to deny tbe election's clear win- uer the spofls of victory. The People's party is expected to boycott the deciding vote and so leave Mr Haider with a majority.

The Freedom party last Sunday increased its share of the vote by 9 percentage points to 42 per cent and for the first time surpassed the Social Democrats, which fell back 4.5 points to 33 per cent.

The People’s Party, which held the post of governor for eight years, dropped from 24 to 21 per cent.

Mr Haider's victory in Car- inthia has put the ruling coalition in Vienna on the defensive ahead of nation- wide elections later this year. The government of Chancellor Viktor Klima is now under pressure to offer significant tax cuts In the tax reform package planned for this year.

It may also take a harder tine against a quick enlarge- ment of the European Union, which Mr Haider opposes on the grounds that it would result in a Hood of immi- grants and threaten jobs in Austria.

West

rity forces and ethnic Alba- nian rebels underlined the parlous stete of the cease- fire. Mr Milosevic has also sent thousands of extra troops Into Kosovo in breach of tbe October agreement.

Mr Holbrooke’s ability to exert pressure on Mr Milos- evic has been weakened by the Kosovo Liberation Army IKLA). which has also refused to sign tbe agree- ment The State Department said Mr Hill had received a commitment to sign by the KLA leadership on Monday. But the rebels’ official news agency has nmde no mention of this, warning instead that Serbian attacks had jeopard- ised the peace process.

NEWS DIGEST

bjropean parliament

for Eta’s logistical operations, raising fears that tbe separatists were prepar- ing some action.

Among those arrested was understood to be a member of Eta's so-called “Donosti” commando unit, active in bloody terrorists actions in the Basque country.

Eta’s military wing has consistently used France as a safe haven for its person- nel However, close Franco- Spa nish security co-opera- tion has made it increasingly difficult to operate unde- tected on French territory. Some 60 Eta members are serving sentences in French jails, and tbe justice minis- try has declined to moire them to prisons close to the Spanish border.

The peace process in the Spanish Basque country is being closely watched by the French, as it is expected to have a significant political and economic impact on their side of tbe border, i Already there have been calls to set up a new admin- istrative dSportement for the ' French Basque country. I carved out of the present Aquitaine.

UK under new pressure over EU budget rebate

Britan yesterday came under fresh political pressure to give up its European Union budget rebate, when the Euro- pean Parliament's budget committee, advised MEPs it should be phased out by the time new member countries joined the EU in the coming decade.

A committee report, drawn up by Jutta Haug, a German Social Democrat, said the rebate was agreed at a. time . when agricultural spending accounted for more that 70 per cent of the EU budget compared with less than 50 per cent today.

MEPs will vote on the proposal tomorrow. However, the parliament only has a consultative role on budgetary issues and the impact of the committee report may be weakened by its recommendation that 50 per cert of the EU’s common agricultural policy should be “co-financed" by national budgets. That would leave national govern- . meat’s footing 50 per cent of the farm bill and undermine the UK's case for a substantial rebate.

In recent days, the German presidency of the EU has conceded that co-financing is politically unworkable because of French objections. Peter Norman, Strasbourg .

GERMAN CITIZENSHIP REFORMS

Deal agreed on outline bill

Otto Schily, Germany's interior minister, has agreed with the opposition Free Democrats on the outline of a bffl - modernising German citizenship rules, a senior parifemen- tarian said yesterday.

Chancellor Gerhard Schrfider was forced to backtrack on his citizenship reform plans and seek a legislative corn- promise after a state election defeat cost his center-left government its majority in the upper house of parliament, where the states are represented.

The apparent accord between Mr Schrbder’s Social Democrats and the center-right Free Democrats Increased pressure on the Greens, the junior government partner, who are holding out for a more ambitious overhaul of the 1913 citizenship law.

Rainer Brfiderle, a Free Democrat parliamentarian negoti- ating with Mr Schily, said both had agreed that the new - draft should allow dual nationality for children at birth but require them to choose one as young adults.

Anneiie Buntenbach of the Greens said that model was “very difficult”. Mr Schroder’s cabinet is scheduled to approve the bill next week. The government had wanted to make dual citizenship the rule rather than the exception in a bid to integrate more of Germany's 7.3m foreigners, about a quarter of them Turks. AP, Bonn

TURKISH ELECTIONS

Ecevit vows to fight delay

Bulent Ecevit, Turkish prime nunister. said yesterday he. would fight attempts to postpone national parliamentary elections planned for April, arguing any delay would bring chaos. Parliament will hold a special session on Saturday at the behest of 1 16 deputies diAbed the “disgruntled ones” by the media. Many have been struck from party lists by powerful party leaders or put so far down they cannot be re-elected. %T.

Mr Ecevit said their petition amounted to a 'dvifian coup attempt”. His words carried a particular poignancy, in a country familiar with military interventions. “Politics in gen- eral and the economy [would] be pitched into chaos," he sad. “We shall do all in our power to reverse this attempt at a delay."

Arithmetic militates against tile disgruntled ones. They may not get the 184 deputies they need for a quorum and are most unlikely to gain the majority necessary to put off the polls. Reuters, Ankara

GENERAL KIDNAPPED

Chechnya challenge for Yeltsin

Boris Yeltsin, the Russian president yesterday struggled to deal with a fresh challenge to his authority, the kid napping of a Russian general in the breakaway region of Chechnya.

Major-General Gennady Shpigun, the Interior Ministry’s" representative in Chechnya, was abducted last Friday by ; gunmen who leapt out of the cargo bay. of his Moscow- bound aircraft at an airport in Grozny, the Chechen capital “This is a direct challenge/ Vadim Gustav, the deputy pre- mier said. “What would happen if they seized a general In America or any other country?" Mr Yeltsin was scheduled to see Mr Stepashin yesterday to discuss the kidnappkig.

Sergei Stepashin, interior minister, had set a harsh tone in dealings with Chechnya on Monday, saying Moscow's patience was running out and it might impose sanctions on Chechnya or attack rebel bases. In Grozny, the spokes- man for Asian Maskhadov, the Chechen President made it dear he was unhappy and that there was anger on both sides. Reuters, Moscow

FINNISH AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS

Strikers to end stoppage

Finnish air traffic controllers have agreed to end a five- week stake that has crippled the country's domestic airline network and disrupted International services following a. revised pay offer from Itmaitulaitos, the civil aviation authority.

Finland's 250 controllers voted to accept a 13 per cent pay rise over three years, even though they had been seeking a 26 per cent increase and benefits inducting company cars. The strike had threatened to overshadow the last two weeks of campaigning before Finland’s Mach 21 genera) election, in which the ruling coalition is urging continued wage moderation. It also prompted warnings from Finnalr, the country's flag carrier, that it was losing FM 55m (€9 .25m. $1 0.07m) a week because of the disrup- tion. Ilmailuiartos, which originally offered the controllers a 12 per cent risQr said the dispute had been resolved shortly before the second two-day shutdown of HetekikTs Vantaa airport. Some politicians have urged the govern- ment to introduce legislation following the election compel- ling specialist workers, such as air traffic controllers, to take part in binding industrial arbitration in the future. ' '

Tim Burt, Stockholm

FARM AGENCY CORRUPTION PROBE

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Polish minister urged to quit *

Poland's agriculture minister came under renewed pres- sure to resign yesterday after a newspaper said a state auditors' report had linked an agency he had headed to financial Irregularities.

The daily Gazeta Wyborcza called Jacek Janiszewski.to step down on the basis of what it said were leaks from the report. The supreme auditing chamber confirmed it had investigated the Farm Property Agency in Szczecin prov: ince, which Mr Janiszewski had headed between 1992-1995. But it declined to give details, saying its report had not yet been finalised. Warsaw, Reuters

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FINANCIAJL Times

Wednesday march io 1999

NATO

of Poland, Czech republic and Hungary this week gives new urgency to efforts to upgrade military apparatus

Western companies race for defence prize

reooan!2nnnthat,rt ^)een tar9et‘n9 central and eastern Europe in I Wfl 58 ^marketplace of the future, Alexander

and thp pvooh Domo'Tow ^ writers examine preparations in Hungary and the Czech Republic for accession to Nato

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The prize is supplying for- mer Warsaw Pact countries with their next generation of weapons. But it is still some way off.

Western weapons makers have been circling central and eastern Europe since the end of the Cold War.

They have been seeking to build contacts in governments and companies with the aim of being in a strong position when decisions on new contracts - especially aircraft purchases - are made.

Tbe admission or Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary to Nato this week will give new urgency to the three countries' efforts to upgrade their old Soviet bloc military apparatus so that it is compatible with that of other Nato allies.

However, Nato has warti> it clear it does not expect new members to bust fragile budgets with purchases of shiny new weapons.

Instead, it wants them to begin by improving printing military infrastructure.

“We’ve said they should focus on the software before the hardware," a Nato official says.

“The important thing is that we are able to interact

with them on a day-to-day

basis."

To this end, the new members will get access this week to a S1.5bn fund under Nato’s security investment programme.

The money will be used initially for purposes such as improving secure communications and other nuts-and-bolts requirements for a working military alliance.

Nato's next priority will be upgrading air defence systems of the new members, with equipment including modem radar.

New members will aion be helped with programmes to reform the structure of armed forces, in which Soviet-era tanks and artillery predominate, to make them more flexible and deployable in keeping with Nato's modern-day missions such as in Bosnia.

All this will produce important, though perhaps low-profile business for defence companies, particularly in the area of “C41" - command, control, communications, computers and intelligence.

But the plum to which most of them are looking forward is the replacement of ageing Russian-made aircraft. All the new Nato entrants - and several other

countries - have fleets of old

MiGs which are difficult to maintain and, because of financial constraints, are mostly in the air for small numbers of hours each year.

The Czech Republic and Poland are at the top of most western companies' lists. Boeing, British Aerospace. DaimlerChrysler Aerospace. Dassault, Lockheed Martin and Saab have all been scrambling for footholds there, as well as electronics

suppliers such as GEC-Marconi.

The companies are conscious that for tbe buyers, aircraft orders are means of building high-technology industry and skilled jobs.

Good industrial offset packages, involving technology transfer which builds aerospace and other industries, will be just as important as the capabilities of the aircraft.

Prague is expected to issue a letter this month inviting bids to supply 36 fighter aircraft at an estimated cost of $1.6bn. to replace 40 MiG-21s which are old and thought to be in a poor state of repair.

Candidates are likely to be the BAe/Saab Gripen, Boeing's F/A-18, Dassault's Mirage and Lockheed's F-16.

TURNING POINT IN COUNTRY’S HISTORY

Poland’s accession: an end to uncertainty

By Christopher Bobfatski ki Warcaw

When Poland joins Nato on Friday at a ceremony in the US town of Independence, Missouri, it will mark a turn- ing point In the country’s often tragic history, after centuries of turbulent rela- tions with powerful and predatory neighbours.

It will also bring a wel- come end to the uncertain- ties which have faced Poland's defence planners, left without allies after the collapse of the Soviet- dominated Warsaw Pact in the early 1990s.

From now on military strategy, arms decisions and training requirements will be defined by Nato military doctrines.

in the first instance, the demands Nato is making of Poland’s dilapidated armed forces are modest and fit well within tbe limits of its defence budget. This is set this year at around 12bn zlo- tys ($3.05bn) or 2.1 per cent of gross domestic product

Around 11.5 per cent of the total budget will be spent on tasks related to Nato mem- bership, including the adap- tation of MiG-29 and Sukhoi fighters to enable them to fly in Nato airspace.

The main challenge, ini- tially, has been to ensure that communications equip-

ment is in place to allow contact with Nato command and to permit Polish units to identify Nato aircraft. Poland will also be concen- trating on bringing several units up to a standard at which they will be capable of taking part in Nato operations abroad, such as the possible intervention by the alliance in Kosovo.

In coming years the num- ber of troops trained and armed to Nato standards will grow. Other units will be rel- egated to the status of terri- torial defence forces which are much cheaper to main- tain.

The bulk of spending on new equipment will be put off untfl next year and the years following. However. US and European defence companies such as Boeing and British Aerospace are already competing fiercely: contracts for new fighter air- craft could be awarded by the end of this year, says Romuald Szeremetiew. the deputy defence minister.

The Poles, for their part, are insisting that any deal will have to include commit- ments by the suppliers to take part in tbe privatisation of the country's ailing arms industry. They also want successful companies to place work with local indus- try under, “offset" agree- ments.

Nato membership is revol- utionising Poland's armed forces. Their numbers have been cut from 460.000 at the beginning of the 1990s to 240,000 today. Slowly surplus military bases and equip- ment stockpiles are being reduced and the officer corps cot back to reflect the pres- ent size of the armed forces.

Tbe main change, though, the introduction of Nato standards in command and logistic systems, will have wider implications. Bronis- law Komorowskf, head of parliament's defence com- mittee. says Poland's defence establishment will be trans- formed into a force for modernising society as a whole. This will have conse- quences in coming years as officers and men with lan- guage skills and training up to Nato standards return after military’ service to , civilian careers. j

Oddly, Poles appear to have grown lukewarm about the historic accession to the western military alliance now that it is imminent, per- haps because of the financial cost of the exercise. Almost : 40 per cent of those asked in a recent poll how they felt about Nato membership sud they were indifferent. There is little outright opposition, however, and those in favour stiff number just over 50 per i cent

POLISH FOREIGN MINISTER URGES FURTHER EXPANSION

Keep looking to east, Geremek tells Nato

By Stefan Wagstyl and Christopher Botiradti to Warsaw

Nato must keep its doors open to further eastward expansion following this week’s entry into the alli- ance of Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, or else risk the creation of a new Iron Curtain, according to Bronislaw Geremek, the Polish foreign minister.

Mr Geremek, in an inter- view with the FT, said increased economic coopera- tion would be central to building bridges in central and eastern Europe between Nato members and non- members in the former Soviet bloc, including the three Baltic states and Slo- vakia, Bulgaria and Romania.

“The Iron Curtain could reappear, albeit in a differ- ent geographical location, and cut Europe in two once again " he said. It would be dangerous for the peace and stability of Europe to accept

that former Soviet republics

- as opposed to the blocs former satellite states such as Poland - could never jom Nato.

Geremek: economic dfrnension

Mr Geremek said eco- nomic links with non-Nato countries could best be built via the European Union and the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta).

Poland is thought to be keen to encourage the devel- opment of an economic dimension to Nato itself, although it is anxious such proposals should not be seen simply as a request for money from wealthy west- ern members of the alliance.

Mr Geremek said for Poland, Nato entry was the -real end of the second world war". Poland had been

reunited with Its former war- time allies, from whom it had been separated by the Yalta accord. “By joining the world’s strongest military alliance, Poland gets not just security but also a sense of security which is also very

important."

He warned current EU member states against exces- sive delays in accepting Poland and other candidate countries. The main problem was a weakening of the polit- ical will in favour of enlarge- ment. with EU countries concentrating on their own national interests and not on ! the wider European interest i

The most important sign . of this “nationalistic reac- 1 tion to the process of unify- 1 ing Europe". Mr Geremek said, was the recent electoral success of Austrian ultra- nationalist Jorg Haider in regional polls in Carinthia. Mr Haider takes a tough stand against EU enlarge- ment warning that it would threaten johs in Austria.

“1 hope this is an isolated case. I hope that the launch of the euro will create a strong European conscious- ness," said Mr Geremek.

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Boeing last year enhanced its position in this race by spending Kc95Qm ($27. 5m I on a 34 per cent stake in Aero Vodochody, a state-owned maker of light aircraft, which makes the Czech L-159 fighter-trainer and also supplies parts for Boeing civil aircraft.

Poland has taken the first step in modernising its air force, but it is a move intended to put off a competition for new purchases.

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Chrysler Aerospace (Dasa) to upgrade 22 MiG-29 aircraft to Nato standards.

Dasa had already done the same to 23 Mlg29s inherited by the Luftwaffe from East Germany, and is in talks with Hungary, Romania. Bulgaria and Slovakia for similar deals - the Czechs have sold their M1G-29S.

BAe established a strong foothold last year when it made PZL Mi elec, a Polish aircraft manufacturer, a supplier of airframe parts for its Hawk jet trainer.

The tendency of defence contracts to be long drawn-out affairs suggests decisions by both Prague and Warsaw on contract awards may still be years away. But marketing efforts by defence companies are likely to gain momentum.

Sir Charles Masefield, vice-chairman of GEC and former head of the UK ministry of defence's export sales organisation, says that the expansion of Nato “is generating much more rapid requirements than anybody thought".

Though the US air force has been offering to lease second-hand fighters, Lockheed Martin also sees business coming from small beginnings. “We recognised that the number one need was to build domestic infrastructure, while also needing items such as fighters,” says a Lockheed executive in Fort Worth, Texas, home of the F-16.

“We see this region as a very significant market place of the future."

UK’s Nato plans, Page 8

Solana proposes Balkan aid deal

By David Buchan

Javier Solana. Nato secretary general, yesterday proposed that the west offer the Balkan region a package of political and economic benefits, as well as military security, in what he called a “partnership for prosperity".

“Without a comprehensive approach to the region's problems, we will never get beyond treating its symp- toms," Mr Solana told a Lon- don conference on Nato’s 50th anniversary.

The Nato chief said the starting point had to be Bel- grade’s agreement to a Nato- led peacekeeping force to oversee an effective settle- ment in Kosovo.

If the west could get agree- ment on this, “we should give a wider signal to the Balkan region of its place in Europe politically and eco- nomically", he said.

Mr Solana gave no specif- ics about his proposed "part- nership for prosperity", but it is understood to include some of the offers which European Union leaders have put to President Slobo- dan Milosevic in recent days.

The EU has said if Bel- grade accepts a Nato-led force, it is ready to reverse its Kosovo-related transport and financial sanctions on Yugoslavia, and provide a Kosovo aid fund that could indirectly benefit Serbia,

DeB

EERS

A DIAMOND IS FOREVER

ABRIDGED AND AUDITED RESULTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 1998

Attributable

Beers linked units

Headline earnings down 39% in 4 Dividends for the year down US Dollars to $639 million and 22% in US Dollars (80.2 cents) 26% in Rand to R3 529 million and 6% in Rand (R4.70)

PRO FORMA COMBINED INCOME STATEMENT

Turnover

Diamond account Investment income Interest income

Prospecting and research Interest payable Exceptional items Other

Net income before taxation Taxation

Net income after taxation Attributable to outside shareholders

Own earnings

Retained earnings of associated comp Current trading Exceptional and non-trading

Total net earnings

Retained as

Non-disoibutable reserves Distributable reserves

Dividends on linked units

Reconciliation of total net earnings to headline earnings

Total net earnings as above 617

Exceptional items as above Net surplus on realisation of fixed assets and investments less provisions against loans (I I) Exceptional and non-trading hems of associated companies 33

Headline earnings 639

Rand millions

1997

1998

29 280

24 845

3 871

3 237

1 061

1 267

279

158

5211

4 662

663

776

266

516

20

201

39

4061

3 331

1 148

1 005

2913

2 326

(94)

(256)

2819

2 070

1 852

I 526

936

(I83j

5 607

3413

2 822

1 459

884

142

*1 901

1 812

5 607

3 413

5 607

3 413

20

67

(67)

(936)

183

4 758 3 529

380

384

742c

539c

1476c

889c

1 252c

919c

252.0c

280.0c

248.2c

190.0c

500.2c

470.0c

US$ millions

1998 1997

4 492 6 418

585

849

229

233

29

61

843

1 143

140

145

93

58

4

8

44

602

892

182

252

420

640

(46)

(21)

374

es

619

276

405

(33)

205

617

1 229

264

6(8

44

220

309

391

617

1 229

Rand millions

1997

1998

46 649

51 914

337

541

4 309

8 009

51 295

60 464

5666

6018

23 691

25 420

21 599

28 23 f

353

372

4 551

5312

4 565

4 889

(14)

423

51 295

60 464

28 472

24 933

19 195

15 061

3 457

2 435

66 968

62 894

US$ millions

1998

1997

8 856

9 585

92

69

1 366

B86

10314

10 540

1 026

1 164

4 336

4868

4 816

4 439

64

72

906

935

834

938

72

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10 314

10540

4 253

5 850

s 2 569

3 944

415

710

10 729

13 759

2 782c

3 619c

R5.B6

R4.87

Weighted overage fxmiber of linked units

Earnings, per linked unit

Dividends

Per linked deferred share [Interim: 96.0 SA cents (72 J3); Rnat 184.0 SA cents (f80.0)J Per depositary receipt (Interim: 1 13 US cents (I IJJ; Fmat 20.9 US cents (39J)J

384 380

97c 163c 1 6 1 c 323c 166c 275c

47.8c 51.8c

32.4c 51.0c

80.2c 1018c

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PRO FORMA COMBINED BALANCE SHEET

Capital employed Linked unit holders' interests Preferred and outside shareholders’ interests

Long- and medium-term liabilities

Represented by Fixed assets Investments Diamond stocks Stores and materials

Current assets Current liabilities

Market value of listed investments 4 253

Directors' valuation of unlisted investments 2 569

66 968 62 894 Net asset value 10 729

17 614c 16 309c Net asset value per linked unit 2 782i

R4.87 R5.86 Rand/US Dollar year end exchange rates R5.B6

DIRECTORS' COMMENT

The dffiaJt diamond marker candhfcns of dw fine haK of 1998 deteriorated tatar n die second ha# CSO sales for die year at USSJ 34S milfon were 28 per cent befcw die previous sales of US$1 M0 mBon and reaited in dehvy entidements to die CSO of 74 per can in [emg of the quota ananpmeno.

Read consumption continued to reflea varied economic cJrcumstancesL The USA performed panKutariy strong^, with vi increase in retail sales ol now per cent. Europe also saw growth in dollar terms of four per cent. These resides were, however, outweighed by poor resides from Japan {minus 19 per cent n dollars) and die South East Asian marfaea {minus 35 pa- cent in defers), so dal die overall global consumption was negative tadofarcerms for die second year to suxessian (1997 nwus fee per canard 1998 minus three per cent). China continued to grow (plus three per cent) aim at a lower ras dian previous years.

The mood to die industry has improved tinea the begtomng of 1999. based on die strong Christmas season m the USA. die rundown of nocks, partndariy of rou^L in the cuttkig amras as a resuh of die CSCTs restneme sales poficy over die bst eighteen morths and a reduction in supply from Angola and the Democratic Republic of die Congo, and die renewal of die CSQffiuss&n sales contract for a further three year period exprtag on 31 December 2001.

The CSO fas responded cautiously to this Improved sentiment hi policy conumes io be to keep supply under control so dot any remamg excess pofehed stocks can be moved dvtxgi to die market. Whde die first two signs of the year have been higher than those of (998, die recovery at this stage Is too recent to justify confidence dot the market is over its (ffieulties. The reduction of stocks in die trade plpefine is positive r reborn to CSO ales operations for 1999, but it will be dffioJt for die CSO to increase its sales signSkandy unless there is an improvement in the Japanese and South East Ason mad markets, or new markets are developed lar those categories of demands which were sold into dm r^gfan prior to July 1997.

Mowing approval by deferred shareholders cf De Beers Consoidated Hues Limited (DBCM) an 15 January 1999 of the DBCM dement of the transaction for die tfoposai by De Beers to Anglo American Gxponbon of South Africa United (AAQ of their InteresB to various fisted and unisted companies and Joint vemures, DBCM and De Been Cernawy AG were issued with tetters of enriement to 15 993 SIS and I 855 2IB new AAC shares (or dares in Angfo American pic) rwpectivdy.

It b expected that die pubficaoon of the fisting paracubn of Ang|o American pic wfl ocnir towards die end of Apr! 1 999 at which dme fonher detafis w8 be posted toDe Bern Inked in* holders for ^formation.

DIVIDENDS

Both the DBCM final tfividend (No. 158) of I8t0 SA cere per finked deferred share and the Centenary Depositary tfindend distribution (No. 18) of 20.9 US cents per depositary receipt are due to be paid on Wednesday. 26 May 1999 to finked mil holders registered at the dose of busmen on Friday. 26 March 1999. The ngstsrs wfB be dosed from 27 March to 3 April 1999, The fiif condtiom relating to the payment of the dbidends may be inspected at the offices menaoned below as wel as the offices of the South AJran transfer secretaries and United Kingdom registrar. ]

Copies of !he prowjwwf annual financial statements and ckvidend notices wdf be posted to linked an a hidden an or about 1 1 A torch 1 999 and wtf also be available from the foBotwig officer

DE BEERS CONSOLIDATED MINES LIMITED DE BEERS CENTENARY AG

(incorporated in die Republic of South Africa) (Company Registration No. i 1/00007/06)

36 Stockdale Street Kimberley. South Africa

17 Charterhouse Street London ECfN 6RA, England

(Incorpora led under the bws of Switzerland)

Langensandstrasse 27 CH-6000 Luzem 14, Switzerland

The preliminary results may be accessed on the Internet through an independent service provider at hap:f/vmw.edata.ccLza

4

FINANCIAL TIMES WEDNESDAY MARCH 10 1999

WORLD TRADE

UNCTAD REPORT ON GLOBAL ECONOMY

Rich ‘must be ready to pump in liquidity’

•tatra MarconPs Helios 1 mffitary observation ssteHte- Europeans stand a chance despite Japan's desire to award work locally AP

European satellite companies circle over lucrative Japanese surveillance project

By Frances Williams in Geneva

Tbe world's rich nations should consider direct injec- tions of liquidity into devel- oping countries if further financial instability threat- ens a global recession, says a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

As a consequence of finan- cial turmoil in Brazil, world growth is set to be at the low end of gloomy forecasts by the International Monetary Fund, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and others last year. Growth this year could halve to 1 per cent from an estimated 2 per cent in 1998 and 3.2 per cent in 1997.

The 1999 outlook reflects continued stagnation in Japan, slowing growth In tbe US and Europe and possible recession in Latin America. Though Asia is expected to

By ARce Rawsthom in London

Record companies have become concerned about the growing availability of inex- pensive. easily operable internet recorders, such as the Rio. a $200 product devel- oped by Diamond Multime- dia in California.

The music industry is try- ing to find ways of curbing the rising use of portable recorders that can be used to store and play pirated music posted on unauthorised internet sites. The industry' would like the recorders made able to record only authorised material.

The Recording Industry Association of America fRlAAj. the body that repre- sents US record labels, mounted an unsuccessful law suit last autumn to stop the Rio from going on sale. Internet piracy is already a

do better than in 1998. this is mainly because the econo- mies most affected by the Asian financial crisis have ceased to shrink.

The downside risks to the world economy have also become more acute in recent months. Unctad warns of the possibility of a sharp correc- tion in equity prices in Industrial countries coupled with a rise in risk aversion, and hence further declines in capital Hows to emerging markets.

The report, prepared for the Association of South- East Asian Nations (Asean). says policymakers in the industrialised world hold the key to global economic recovery, but that imagina- tive responses are needed to combat the effects of shrivel- ling financial flows.

While there Is plenty of scope in the US. the Euro- pean Union and Japan to use

serious problem for the music industry. The RIAA and other bodies fear that the availability of devices, such as the Rio. will encour- age even more consumers to download pirated music.

Since the RIAA lost its case, a number of other elec- tronics manufacturers have revealed plans for similar products. The Yepp. a credit card-si2ed device, will be launched this summer by Samsung of South Korea. Creative, a Singapore-based company, plans to introduce the Nomad, w’hich will be the same size as a cigarette packet and will retail for less than $200.

Having accepted it cannot stop such derices, the music industry is trying to ensure they cannot be used to breach copyright.

The Secure Digital Music Initiative (SDMT). an alliance

fiscal expansion to combat economic slowdown, .this may not he sufficient on a global scale if the crisis deepens, the report says.

It suggests instead that the EU and Japan “recycle" part of their current account surpluses to cash-starved developing countries through official channels “to raise demand, imports and growth". This could be done in three ways:

debt relief through a rapid write-off of unpayable offi- cial and multilateral debt;

regional aid plans to pump binds into the crisis- ridden Asian economies;

a substantial allocation of Special Drawing Rights to developing countries and economies in transition from communism.

Global Economic Conditions and Prospects. Unctad. Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10

of RIAA members and tech- nology companies, has set up a group to map out guide- lines whereby the software specifications of portable devices will be tailored to prevent them recording and replaying unauthorised material.

At present, most of the songs posted on the internet are illicit versions of copy- righted material by popular acts, such as Lauryn Hill or Robbie Williams. However, more authorised material will become available online when tbe record companies launch their own internet sales systems this autumn.

The SDMI working group, chaired by Jack Lacy, an executive with AT&T's a2bmusic subsidiary, with representatives of Sony Music and Matsushita, hopes to have agreed the guide- lines by the end of June.

Michiyo Nakamoto

on the contest for a $1 .6bn contract

A group of western busi- nessmen gathered at the Liberal Democratic party’s headquarters in Tokyo one day last month. Representing Europe's lead- ing aerospace companies, they had come to market sat- ellite technology to Japan's ruling LDP and government officials. At stake is a Y200bn (S1.6bn) programme to launch four surveillance satellites in 2002.

For Aerospatiale. Matra Marconi Space, Alcatel Space. DalmlerChrysler Aerospace and Thomson CSF, all represented that day. the meeting was a cru- cial opportunity to press the case for European participa- tion in what could be a lucrative business.

But it will not be easy. The government, which has allo- cated initial development funds in its 1998 supplemen- tary budget, is hoping to rely on domestic technology to develop and build the satel- lites.

“This is a problem that has to do with Japan's secu- rity. so basically we plan to develop and produce the sat- ellites ourselves." says one official.

The National Space Devel- opment Agency of Japan (Nasda). which has guided Japan's national space devel- opment effort, has launched a number of its own satel-

lites and already bad a plan in place to launch its Advanced Land Observing Satellite (Alos) in 2002. This development work is expec- ted to form the basis for the new satellites.

Amid the general eco- nomic gloom, domestic com- panies such as NEC and Mit- subishi Electric will be desperate to claim a share of new business from a client that has a reputation for offering attractive margins.

But Japan's limited experi- ence in the satellite busi- ness. the tight schedule the government faces and cost considerations provide an opportunity' for foreign com- panies with proven exper- tise.

The plan to launch four satellites was put together hastily last year amid the panic after North Korea launched a rocket over Japa- nese territory. The Japanese government was embar- rassed by its dependence on US military intelligence and clear lack of viable options in case of a missile attack.

The government decided to strengthen its intelligence capabilities by launching the satellites as soon as possible. Since Japan is committed :o the “peaceful" use of space, the satellites are tc> be used for commercial and scientific purposes as well as for mili- tary surveillance.

However, if Japan is to keep to its schedule of launching the satellites in 2002. it will almost certainly have to rely on more than

home-grown technology, “it is possible for Japan to develop the satellites hut there are questions of cost and delivery, which will put foreign companies at an advantage." admits a gov- ernment official.

It takes four years to build a satellite from an existing design and although Nasda has started work on the Alas, there is no guarantee it will be ready by 2002.

Furthermore, it would be “cost effective to rely on some already developed equipment" and would make for a more reliable pro- gramme “to have experi- enced contractors on board," says Matra Marconi Space, a prime contractor for the Helios satellites, which claims to be “the leading noc-L'S company in earth observation."

More crucially perhaps, there is little guaran- tee that a Japanese- made satellite could perform the surveillance functions Japan wants.

It wants the satellite to carry 2 sensor that is able to observe objects on earth as small as 1 metre. There are few companies able to pro- rice that kind of resolution.

Nasda is developing a sen- sor with 2.3-metre resolu- tion. but this is only planned for completion in 2003. Lock- heed Martin, the US com- pany. is launching Ikonos. a commercial satellite with a resolution of Slczn. next month.

Helios-I. a .joint effort between France, Italy and Spain launched in 1995. is believed to offer a resolution of 1 metre. Helios-E, sched- uled for launch in 2001, is expected to provide a resolu- tion of 50cm, although there are questions about German funding for this FrancoGer- man programme.

Although Nasda has launched four information- gathering satellites in the past, the last one, in 1996, broke down within a year.

Furthermore, while the official stance is that the sat- ellites will he developed and built with domestic technol- ogy, “there are international political considerations to take into account," admits one government official.

“We are making a com- mercial satellite so we will have open competition, according to WTO rules," proclaims the LDP's Mr Nakayama.

Lockheed Martin, which has 40 years experience in the field, would be die nat- ural candidate to participate, given the close defence ties between the US and Japan.

However, the LDP appears to he more actively in touch with the Europeans. Mr Nakayama has not yet been visited by a US delegation.

In spite of its stated inten- tion to use domestic compa- nies. there are signs of inde- cision. “It might be difficult to meet oar goal of choosing the contractors by the end of the fiscal year fin March]," says a government official

S Korea adjusts steel prices

By John Burton in Seoul

South Korea's Pobang Iron & Steel (Posco) yesterday said it still planned to offer dis- counts to domestic consum- ers who buy huge volumes of steel, despite a decision to end subsidised prices for local buyers.

Posco, the world's second largest steelmaker, will abol- ish its dual-pricing policy, under which it supplied steel to export manufacturers at rates lower than those offered to foreign buyers, because of a threatened trade dispute with the US.

Analysts said the move had also been expected because the privatisation this year of state-run Posco would allow it to improve earnings by charging market prices to domestic consum- ers. Posco reported a record profit in 1998 because of higher overseas sales.

The system of subsidised prices was introduced in the 1970s to boost export compet- itiveness by offering manu- facturers lower prices for steel, petrochemical and tex- tile materials. Posco supplies about 75 per centof domestic steel demand.

The reduced steel prices were largely based on raw material costs, without tak- ing into consideration for- eign exchange rates and overseas steel prices.

US steelmakers have com- plained the dual-pricing sys- tem violates World Trade Organisation rules on subsi- dies. Robert Fisher, the .US deputy trade representative, told officials in Seoul last week that Washington was concerned the dual-pricing system was causing a sharp rise in steel exports to the US. He said Korean steel exports to the US rose 27 per cent in January from Decem- ber, while steel shipments from Japan. Russia and Bra- zil fell. Han Duck-soo, South Korea's minister of stale for trade, said exports to the US were expected to fall this year as demand elsewhere rose.

Music industry seeks to curb internet recorders

INTERNATIONAL

UK presses Sierra Leone peace initiative

By Quentin Peel in Abuja

Tbe British government yesterday urged the demo- cratically elected president of Sierra Leone to sue for peace with the rebel forces that have terrorised the impoverished west African state for the past five years.

Britain is offering the ser- vices of its frigate HMS Westminster, currently sta- tioned off Freetown, tbe Sierra Leonean capital, to

provide humanitarian assis- tance in the ongoing civil war, as a potential location for peace talks.

The initiative was launched yesterday at talks between Robin Cook, the UK foreign secretary, Ahmad Tejan Kabbah, the president of Sierra Leone, and Abdul Rahman Abubakar, the Nigerian president in Abuja.

It came as a detained rebel leader in Freetown, F oday Sankob. called for a truce

between his Revolutionary United Front and the Niger- ian-led west African peace- keeping forces.

Yesterday’s talks in Nigeria were intended to step up tbe pressure on Mr Kabbah to negotiate with the rebels, in spite of the brutal- ity with which they have waged the war and the lack of any clear leadership in the field. At the same time, both Britain and Nigeria insist they are maintaining

their support for the elected government in Sierra Leone.

The chaos in that country, whose only source of wealth is its diamond mines, cur- rently controlled by the rebel forces, has become a headache both for the UK. as the former colonial power and principal aid donor, and for Nigeria whose troops have been keeping Mr Kab- bah in power.

Tbe war is costing Nigeria about Sim a day. when the

country is in deep economic crisis and unable to service Us S38bn externa] debt. Nigeria has also lost up to 1.000 soldiers in the conflict.

Olusegun Obasanjo. newly elected to take over as civil- ian head of state from Gen Abubakar. wants to pull out of Ecomog, the west African peacekeeping force, to which Nigeria has contributed most of the troops. The pres- ent Nigerian government wants Britain to get more

international support.

Sierra Leone has also proved a political nightmare for Mr Cook, because of the involvement of the British company Sandline in break- ing a UN arms embargo to support the Kabbah govern- ment. allegedly with the knowledge of UK govern- ment officials.

The Foreign Office was sharply criticised by a par- liamentary committee for its involvement

Unscrambling the scramble for Africa

A century ago European nations were competing to carve up Africa, establishing spheres of influence that last to this day. But now the familiar pattern is starting to unravel, writes Mark Turner

When France and Britain met in St Malo last December and launched a joint approach to Africa, many observers doubted that more than a century of competi- tion for economic and politi- cal influence could suddenly be replaced by cooperation.

Yet this week Robin Cook, the British foreign secretary, and Hubert V&drine. the French foreign minister, are paying tbe first joint visit to Ghana and the Ivory Coast. In Abidjan, French and Brit- ish ambassadors to Africa will discuss how to put into practice (he St Malo call for policy harmonisation, infor- mation exchange and even joint representation where only one partner boasts an outpost.

The new message has yet to get through to everyone. Businessmen and diplomats from both sides of tbe divide in Africa remain as Joyfully suspicious of each other as ever, and take an almost childish glee in each other's difficulties.

This is well demonstrated by the underlying sense of competition which has char- acterised recent inroads by France into Kenya, the heart of British influence in East Africa, and a parallel British

push into the Ivory Coast.

The newly revamped Mai- son Franpaise in Nairobi - a temple to Parisian chic - is an eloquently high-profile testament to France's push for more influence In East Africa, and is home to large new regional development and research centres.

“We are promoting a real image of contemporary France," says Mehdi Drissi, the centre's energetic direc- tor. “ We promote our culture through plays, singers, uni- versity exchanges. The Alli- ance Francaise [language school] here has 5,000 stu- dents, making It second worldwide: only New York is ahead."

President Jacques Chirac underlined his country's move beyond traditional boundaries in no uncertain terms when nearly all Anglo- phone African leaders attended the recent France- Africa summit. France claims that although its commitment to French Africa Is as great as ever, it wants to move away from its old concept of the “back- yard” and take a more holis- tic view of the continent.

Half a continent away, the British are making a less col- ourful but equally vigorous push into the Ivory Coast

The csrve-up; A French caricature of the German chancellor Bismarck dividing Africa Eke a cake at the Berlin congress of 1885. Now Britain and France are nibbling tile-other's portions AKG

West Africa's most vibrant economy. The UK last year was the country's second largest investor, after France, with companies from British Airways and Framlington to Crocodile Machetes moving in over the past few years, and has been raising its profile with trade missions and fairs.

“We want to get away from the idea that somehow there are countries that are outside our interests in West Africa." said Tony Lloyd, the Foreign Office's minister tor Africa, on a 'recent trip to the country.

At the heart of each coun- try's efforts is a recognition that they could be missing

out on some big commercial opportunities on the other's patch. France and Britain fto a lesser extent) continue to dominate trade relations with their former colonies, but are making inroads across the divide. In Kenya, exports from both countries have risen considerably over the past five years, with the UK up almost SO per cent and France up 40 per cent from 1993 to 1997. In the Ivory Coast British exports almost doubled over the same period; albeit from a much lower relative base, while French exports rose by a little over 30 per cent.

The St Malo meeting, how- ever. appears to mark a rec-

ognition by both govern- ments that a new scramble for Africa would both be damaging and difficult - especially at a time when the US is making increasing inroads into the continent, and new competition emerges from East Asia and South Africa.

The question is why they are taking a bilateral rather than an European approach, when tbe EU is becoming more assertive in commerce and politics.

The answer seems to lie in the hands of technocrats who are suspicious of shar- ing influence with countries with little or no history on the continent, and which

hope to capitalise on Franco- British networks to promote their own trade and develop- ment strategies.

Despite recent cutbacks, France and Britain retain substantial and privileged links to the continent and are loath to see them eroded.

Paris in particular has maintained a strong role as benevolent guardian of for- mer colonies: by direct, although declining, military support (with bases in Dji- bouti and Chad;, unwavering political support tor Franco- phone African leaders, and a guarantee for the currency of 14 countries in central and western Africa, the CFA franc. There are 114.000 French nationals living on the continent. French cul- ture is dominant in West Africa, and Paris is the world's largest contributor of aid to Africa, devoting FFrl8.7bn (€2.S5bn. «3.1bn) in 1997.

Britain also boasts almost 140,000 nationals in Africa, gave £348m (S560m) in aid from 1996-7, and has improved its Lies with Afri- can members of the Com- monwealth considerably since the days of dispute over how to end apartheid in South Africa. Educational links are strong, and the UK maintains a §mall military force in Kenya, backed by regular exercises.

If Lbe old rivals do manage , to set aside a hundred years ( of history, and pool their resources on an increasingly | troubled and isolated conti- j nent they would offer a for- | midable opponent to any \ new upstarts looking for a I piece of the pie. j

But given the mutual sus- picion that remains, It may I take more than a few joint visits to cement the alliance- I

NEWS DIGEST

pRESSURE ON KINGDOM'S CURRENCY

Saudi Arabia ‘in fresh move to support riyal9

The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (Sama) is betieved to Kfi have Intervened this week to support the riyal, the second •• - such move in two weeks. Saudi Arabia’s economic prob- lems in a climate of low oil prices have led to pressure on the riyal. with offshore hedge funds short-selling the cur- rency in the hope that the government wHI devalue. Sama. the kingdom's equivalent of the central bank, first jnter- vened with an estimated $1bn to support the riyal in the summer following the Russian crisis. Intervention about 10 days ago is believed to have been for several hundred mil- lion dollars.

According to bankers, most of the short-seHing contin- - ues to come from hedge funds, although some local com- panies are hedging against a devaluation. One banker said, that the pressure could ease If the central bank explained that it had enough instruments to support the currency. .

Saudi Arabia has about $60bn in foreign assets. Available statistics show that foreign exchange reserves total only about $7bn, although Sama may not have published their full extent. Roida Khafaf, London

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM

Iran’s stance wins praise

Lamberto Dini, Italy’s foreign minister, yesterday said there had been a significant reduction in Tehran’s support for " international terrorism. At the start of the vfeirto Ronie-by Iran's President Mohammad Khatami, the first to the west- ■- by an Iranian leader in 20 years, Mr Dini said there had been “a strong reduction” by Iran in the financing of terror;: . 1st activity in the world. Mr Dini suggested that toe change had been brought about because of the reformist course ted by Mr Khatami himself. r .

Mr Khatami yesterday met Oscar Luigi Scaifaro, Italy's- - head of state, at the Quirinaie palace and held talks wflfr senior Italian figures. -

Mr IMni said that the Iranian president's visit, which Is being undertaken amid very tight security, was being- : watched "with great interest” in the US. which is stiff main- taining sanctions on Tehran. James BGtz, Roms . .

Smiling face. Page 13

NO’S MISSING MILLIONS

Grupo Torras money traced

About SlOOm allegedly misappropriated from Grupo Tor- res, the Spanish subsidiary of the Kuwaiti Investment Office, has been traced to persona! trusts in the Bahamas set up by Sheikh Fahad Mohammed al Sabah. -the -former chairman of the KIO, according to new evidence revealed Op' during the London legal action over the company's oaf- lapse in 1992.

Lawyers acting for Grupo Torras discovered in Decem- ber that more than $1Q0m of the $450m misappropriated in total had been paid into a Swiss bank account in the ' name of Sheikh Fahad. This money has now been traced . through New York banks to the Bahamian trust tends and frozen.

The legal action against Sheikh Fahad and other former members of the Grupo Torras senior management has now ended. Judgment is not expected for several months.

John Mason, Law Courts Correspondent, London

FINANCIAL TIMES

WEDNESDAY MARCH 10 1999

5

THE AMERICAS

-°^.*g?J.ggj»!AMBmouS POLICY COMMITMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR LATIN AMERICA'S BIGGEST ECONOMY

High stakes for Brazil in IMF deal

5-??? By8rin S* taiio

Brazil is no stranger to thi ways of the Internationa Monetary Fund. Fourteer loans from the Fund in 4( years bear testament to tht country's elusive search foi economic stability.

But few of those accordi have been as ambitious ir policy commitments as the letter of intent the Brazilian government signed on Mon day. Few have been as important for Latin Amer biggest economy, which has seen its currency lose nearly 40 per cent of its value so far this year.

The stakes are high. If the new policy framework works, Brazil will steer of the Inflation which once ravaged its economy, and lay the groundwork for high growth in the future.

Brazil’s neighbours will sigh with relief and the IMF, assailed over its policies in Asia and Russia and for fan, ing to prevent the January devaluation in Brazil, win be able to notch up a much- needed victory.

But if the new agreement does not quickly restore con- fidence in Brazil, the effects could be catastrophic.

At the least, the efforts needed to weed inflation out of the economy would require a prolonged recession. The worst-case scenario would bring a combination of galloping inflation and a default

on domestic debt

After a convraitioiial IMF approach to economic stabi- lisation, the new agreement sets two clear objectives:

First, to limit the infla- tlonary impact from the devaluation, in the short term the government aims to use tight monetary policy and IMF money to intervene in the currency market

Second, to prevent the ratio of debt to gross domes- tic product from exploding, the government will try to engineer substantial budget surpluses (before interest) in each of the next three years.

The price of these goals will be a steep recession, a

decline in GDP of 3^4 per cent, according to official estimates. Yet, they have won the support of many economists because of what they see as the absence of other options. “There Is no alternative,” says Mauro Schneider, economist at ING Barings in SSo Paulo.

The obstacles facing the new plan are considerable. For a start, the two goals of the strategy are contradic- tory: high interest rates to subdue inflation aggravates the fiscal problem by increasing the debt burden and reducing tax revenues.

The government is well aware of the need to bring down interest rates, both real and nominal, as soon as possible.

Brazil’s new floating exchange rate regime also

Brazffian economy EfradBoi real against dolar ffSperUSS)

faces a number of technical hurdles. Having abandoned its exchange rate peg, the government says it will now establish an inflation target as the new anchor for policy.

Yet one of the by-products of Brazil’s inflationary his- tory is a vast array of price indices, each one explaining a different aspect of eco- nomic behaviour.

In February, the Fipe con- sumer price index recorded inflation of 1.4 per cent, while the IGP-M index said prices had risen by 3.6 per cent in the same period.

Both measures are respected and closely watched. Which one to choose as a target? The cen- tral hank’s new team of tech- nocrats is still trying to resolve this question.

But the biggest challenge for the new plan is political Last year Brazil's politicians

. trfflaflen CP|, fipe (paw amage; %) 7D

Armfnio Fraga: adm baton

were asked to accept budget cuts and high interest rates to prevent a devaluation.

Now that the currency has been allowed to float, the politicians are fonng urged to back new budget savings and, for the time being, even higher interest rates.

Paucsecudg* (asaftotGSP) 50

1995 96 97 98 99 2001 Fcncasb

Arminio Fraga. the new president of the central bank, admitted that the revised fiscal adjustment being asked of Brazil was “enormous".

All this during a year when the economy is expec- ted to face one of the worst recessions on record. Few democratic political systems would withstand such pres- sure, even if they did not have Brazil's weak political parties and history of popu- list posturing.

Yet Brazil’s record of breaking past accords means that, in the Darwinian world of today's financial markets, it will be awarded few con- cessions.

“Mexico and Argentina have actually proved that they can tolerate the pain of such an adjustment when required," says Walter Molano, economist at BCP

Securities in the US. “Brazil has not yet demonstrated that ability."

Given the recessionary impact of the new pro- gramme. the IMF's critics have been quick to say it will not work

According to Jeffrey Sachs, the Harvard econom- ics professor, the combina- tion of budget cuts and high interest rates in an already declining economy could be “disastrous". “Being with the IMF is worse that being without it.” he told a Brazil- ian television channel last week.

The plan’s only hope of political survival is that the fear of rampant Inflation, which reached 2,700 per cent in 1993, will ensure contin- ued political support for the government, despite the inevitable slump in its poll ratings.

This case was powerfully made on Monday by Gustavo Franco, who having resigned as central bank president at the start of the currency cri- sis. was formally handing over to his successor.

-inflation is a type of state violence against the citizen," he told the audience. ‘The restoration of the currency [in 1994] was a reunion with a future that we thought we had lost"

Mr Franco may be blamed by many for Brazil’s present ills. But these rousing words did win him a standing ova- tion.

IMF reforms have ‘met Congress demands’

By Haney Dunne in Washington

US officials told a Senate banking subcommittee yes- terday that the International

Monetary Fund had made important reforms “broadly consistent” with those demanded by Congress when it approved a $17.9bn infu- sion of funds last year.

tary, and his deputy Larry Summers, said Gerald O’Driscoll of the conserva-

tive Heritage Foundation, which has opposed the Fund. “The US Treasury depart- ment exercises influence over the IMF policy far in excess of the explicit per- centage vote possessed by the US," he said. "IMF policy does not and wifl not deviate in any important or ftmda-

dynamfc which makes it dif- ficult to pronounce confi-

dently that the participation of the IMF in file domestic reform process is helpful".

This explained why the IMF must frequently revise its initial conditions. “IMF conditionality first brings economic pain and then political reaction. Political reaction slows reform, which leads the IMF to revise its conditions so as to conform to political reality in the debtor country."

Timothy Geithner. Trea- sury undersecretary for international affairs, said the IMF. on US urging, had

became “a more transparent and accountable institution”, releasing many of the main documents on IMF pro- grammes as well as policy papers and information on the Fund’s financial posi- tion.

However, before he arrived to testify, the banking sub- committee met four IMF offi- cials behind closed doors.

Commenting on the prob- lems of Asian economies, Mr Geithner said South Korea had undertaken a wide range of policy measures to liberalise its trade and

investment regimes. Among these were a reduction of tariffs, elimination of export subsidies and simplification and harmonisation of import certification procedures. It had also agreed to stop directing commercial bank lending decisions.

Mr Geithner's optimism on Korean reforms was count- ered by Catherine Mann, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics. Korea, she said, had “made relative little progress" towards reforms that would create a more market-ori-

ented economy. Institutional reforms, such as bankruptcy law and the social safety net, had affected the smaller chaebol, or conglomerates, the most, leaving large chae- bol unscathed.

She said mnunlirtatinn of smaller and weaker hanks into large hanks presents the appearance of a stronger financial sector.

“But merging the hanks and using government funds to buy back had loans, does not create a stronger institu- tional culture for credit dis- cipline," she said.

mental way from the policy If Congress is displeased of the US Treasury." with IMF policy, it should He said IMF policies usu- direct its concerns to Robert ally generated a nationalist Rubin, the Treasury secre- and populist harkiash. These

set in motion "a political

Cuba seeks to put spotlight on bomb trial

By Pascal Retcher In Havana

Cuba's communist government, which last week blocked foreign scru- tiny of a trial of internal dis- sidents. has actively sought world attention for the trial this week of a Salvadorean facing the death penalty for allegedly planting bombs in Havana that killed an Italian tourist

On March l, foreign diplo- mats and journalists were

unceremoniously ordered by police to stay far away from the cramped courtroom in west Havana where four leading opponents of the government were tried on “sedition” charges in a one- day closed hearing.

On Monday a week lata-, Havana’s foreign press corps were invited to attend a spa- cious court especially set up in a fortress built by the Spanish in colonial times, to cover the start of the trial of

a 27-year-old Salvadorean bodyguard and former mili- tary cadet accused of “terror- ism”.

Cuban television showed long extracts from the trial, including a carefully scripted declaration of repen- tance and plea for mercy from Radi Ernesto Cruz Le6n, the accused.

in the dissidents' trial only the prosecution case was made public inside Cuba. The accused were subjected

to an official campaign of vilification branding them as US-backed “traitors” and “mercenaries". They bad criticised aspects of Cuba’s one-party political system and called for a boycott of elections. They face jail terms of up to six years and are still awaiting sentencing.

President Fidel Castro has repeatedly held up the case of the Salvadorean as evi- dence that the communist- ruled island continues to be

the target of “terrorist” attacks launched by anti- Castro Cuban exile groups based In the US.

“The difference is clear. Last week's secretive trial involved interna] question- ing of the Cuban govern- ment and the Revolution. This week's public one is the David and Goliath scenario, Cuba as the victim of US- sponsored terrorism,” said one Havana-based foreign diplomat.

Mr Cruz has admitted he was recruited and paid El Salvador to plant bombs in five tourist hotels and a res- taurant in Cuba in July and September of 1997. In these blasts, an Italian visitor was killed and 11 other people were injured.

Mr Cruz, who faces a Cuban firing squad if sen- tenced to rfflutli, said he had acted purely out of economic motives because be needed money to pay off debts.

Ecuador crisis grows as banks stay closed

By Justins Newsoms in Quito and Rfehanf tapper In London

Ecuador’s political and economic crisis deepened yesterday when the govern- ment closed the country's hanks for a second succes- sive day and labour unions called a general strike.

The compulsory bank holi- day follows a sharp fall in bank deposits in recent weeks. Jorge Egas, bank superintendent, announced the move late on Monday, and said it was to “preserve the stability of bank reserves, limit the withdraw- als that could affect the domestic financial system, and avoid pressure on the currency and the continued rise in prices". The domestic foreign exchange market was also closed.

The government is sched- uled to announce economic measures tomorrow.

Devaluation of the cur- rency, the sucre, has added to the troubles of the bank- ing system as many Ecuado- reans borrowed dollars to buy cars and domestic appli- ances and have seen the cost of repayments rise sharply.

Mr Egas said the banking move was taken to allow the launch this week of eco- nomic measures aimed at stabilising the financial sys- tem and fostering growth. However, it was criticised by bankers.

“Confidence has been seri- ously weakened by the clo- sure. The government has lost control of the country," said Carlos Larreategui, president of the private banks' association.

Cuts in public sector redundancy payments and a build-up of wage arrears

have been the rallying point for a general strike called for today and tomorrow by labour unions.

Bus drivers, who agreed late on Monday to support the strike, have been hit hard by the devaluation and called on the government to freeze the sucre value of dol- lar-den ominated loans taken out to buy buses.

The government has threatened to send troops to run electricity plants and oil installations. Strikes which paralyse basic services were outlawed last year in consti- tutional reforms.

Meanwhile, fears are grow- ing in international markets that Ecuador may be forced to default on its external debt.

In London. Ecuador's Brady bonds rose in early trading but are still trading at average yields of more than 30 per cent.

The price index fell by nearly 8 per cent on Monday.

“The implied risk of default has increased sub- stantially,” said Peter West, chief Latin American econo- mist at Banco Bilbao Viz- caya, the Spanish bank. “The whole macroeconomic situation is dire and the financial system Is in extreme difficulty and so one should not underestimate the risk."

If Ecuador were to default on its Brady bonds it would be the first country to do so since more than a dozen debtors restructured bad commercial debt in the early 1990s.

Ecuador has the worst debt indicators in Latin America, with a debt to gross domestic product ratio of 82 per cent

Productivity of US workers up

The productivity of US workers soared in late 1998 at the fastest rate in six years, the government said yesterday, Reuters reports from Washington.

Productivity, measuring the amount of goods and ser- vices that workers produce per hour, grew by 4.6 per cent in the quarter ended in December, the Labour Department said. It revised upwards its previous esti- mate, which had pegged fourth-quarter productivity growth at 3.7 per cent.

The latest figures for non- farm productivity showed it recording its biggest gain since a 62 per cent increase in the fourth quarter of 1992.

The revision incorporates

data recently released by the Commerce Department showing that the gross domestic product of the US economy boomed at a 6-1 per cent rate late last year.

Together, the GDP and productivity reports show an economy moving forward at full speed but with a lack of inflationary pressures. Con- sistent with that picture, unit-labour costs fell 1.1 per cent in the fourth quarter, the department said.

Economists in a Reuters survey had expected fourth- quarter 1998 productivity to be revised to a 4 SI per cent gain. Unit-labour costs had been expected to decline by 0B per cent

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FINANCIAL TIMES WEDNESDAY MARCH 10 1999

ASIA-PACIFIC

State spending boosts Chinese output

NEWS DIGEST

By James Kynge in Beijing

China's industrial production grew by 10.6 per cent in the Srst two months this year, mainly because of increased state spending on infrastructure, it announced yesterday.

But this robust perfor- mance masked severe bud- getary constraints, which may limit China's ability to continue Keynesian fiscal spending to drive economic growth.

The revised 8 per cent year-on-year rise in indus- trial output for January was an indication that Febru- ary's figure exceeded 10 per cent, the official Xinhua news agency said. Industrial output in all of 1998 rose 8.9 per cent

Economists said the climb in industrial production should not be taken as a sig- nal that China’s economic slowdown was aver. In fact, the worst was yet to come, said senior Chinese officials.

Most of the output has been generated by spending stimulated by a RMBlOObn (S12bn) infrastructure bond issue last year, some RMB58bn of which remains to be spent this year. But this amount is too small to have more than a marginal and short-lived locomotive effect on industry. For exam- ple, the value of industrial production in the first two months was RMB280bn, greater than the entire bond issue.

China may also be reluc- tant to issue more large infrastructure bond tranches this year because the cost of servicing existing domestic and foreign debts is already too high - at RMB235bn, compared with total central budget revenues of RMB54&3bn in 1998.

Nevertheless, plans for rolling- out infrastructure appear to be going ahead. China's railways ministry plans to issue RMB3.4bn in three-year bonds to fond

railway construction pro- jects.

The People's Bank of China, or central bank, announced a surprise rise in interest rates on US and Hoag Kong dollar deposits yesterday. The rate for one- year US dollar deposits rose to 4.4375 per cent from 3.7500 per cent. The move may have been aimed at curbing capital flight from China by raising the attractiveness of deposits in domestic hanks, observers said. But the risk

is that Chinese would try harder to change their ren- minbi into US dollars, thereby applying downward pressure on the local unit China’s National People's Congress, or parliament yes- terday adopted amendments which elevate the official standing of private enter- prise. The changes describe private business as an “important component" of the formerly communist economy rather than merely an appendage.

India to halve India’s cross-border power international deal reaches final hurdle

4-/\ 1 /\ r| By Marie Wcbolson tn New Delhi l.-" " - " . " i India's, which suffers wider

[eienniine rill ~~ . ! fluctuations mpower.lt was

An unprecedented deal / y?-. -j agreed to isolate a Pakistani

By Mark Nicholson hi New Delhi

India’s telecoms regulator yesterday announced sweep- ing cuts in most telephone rates, including the halving of international call prices within three years, in the sector's most comprehensive overhaul of tariffs.

In a phased three-year “rebalancing" of virtually all existing telecoms tariffs and rental rates, the two-year-old Telecom Regulatory Author- ity conservatively estimated that the cuts and revisions would boost call volumes in India by 10 per cent within a year and increase overall sector revenues.

Among the main changes, which will begin to take effect from April l. the regu- lator said long-distance tar- iffs would fail by around 45 per cent over three years, and international tariffs by 50 per cent over the period.

Local call charge rates were revised, rather than simply increased, from a range of RsQ.8-Rsl.20 (2-3 cents) to Rs0.6-Rsl.4. while rental charges on fixed lines will rise on average from Rs75-Rsl90 a month to Rsl20- RS250 fS2.S2-85.88i. Cellphone tariffs were also sharply cut, while rental charges increased to Rs60O a month from the current Rsl56.

The net effect of the revi-

sions will be to cut overall charges for heavy telephone users while modestly increasing overall costs for average urban users. This will sharply reverse the cur- rent position, which effec- tively taxes heavy telephone users in India.

Rural users, and those who make fewer than 500 calls a month, together mak- ing up 70 per cent of tele- phone users, will end up paying less than the aver- age.

The regulatory authority said in a statement that the tariff revisions were only a first step in reforming the sector’s overall pricing.

The aim was to offer a “transparent framework'* for tariff determination, to improve consumer choices and flexibility to service pro- viders - which since 1994 include private companies - and to move Indian prices in line with international norms. -

It promised to review the results of the reforms after a year, and adjust if necessary.

The tariff reforms will also directly affect VSNL, the publicly quoted but state- owned monopoly provider of international telecoms, along with MTNL. another quoted public operator which pro- vides fixed line services in Bombay and Delhi.

By Marie Wcbolson in New Delhi

An unprecedented deal between India and Pakistan for the croseborder sale of electricity needs only final agreement on tariffs, accord- ing to Indian officials, who claim otherwise “the deal is done”.

The agreement would mark a milestone in improved relations between south Asia's, newly nuclear rivals after the pomp and rhetoric of last month’s prime- ministerial summit in Lahore. It may also signal a tentative, but noteworthy shift in Pakistan's diplo- matic approach towards its neighbour.

A third round of bilateral talks on the proposed sale of 300MW of Pakistani power to India are expected to resume later this month. These will cover pricing and payment details, according to offi- cials, who say most techni- cal issues involved in linking the two countries' power grids were resolved in ear- lier rounds.

Indian officials also say that the "political atmo- sphere Is favourable” for an agreement, following the recent thaw in bilateral rela- tions between the tradition- ally chilly rivals, which cul- minated 7 In last month's prime ministerial summit in Lahore.

Prospects for the power deal; 7 and perhaps other future steps towards closer

1

Nawaz Sharif (right) and Atal B&iari Vajpayee at the Lahore summit power deate add flesh to gestures of rapprochement AP

bilateral relations - have been improved by a politi- cally delicate shift in Paki- stani policy towards India.

Islamabad is now appar- ently prepared to allow some progress on a series of mod- est bilateral initiatives, such as power and the establish- ment of the Delhi-Lahore bus link celebrated at the Lahore summit, without insisting that such moves be directly linked to progress on the intractable issue of Jammu and Kashmir. Islam- abad consistently insists that this is the “core" bilat- eral Issue.

Successive Pakistani gov- ernments refused to counte- nance’more modest moves to improve relations unless there was at least simulta- neous progress on Kashmir.

Pakistani officials appear

to have edged closer to India’s equally long-stated position, that addressing the deep-rooted dispute over Kashmir may prove more manageable after earlier moves designed to improve trust between the two sides.

“If we deal with these issues, the Kashmir issue is easier to deal with - they are to improve the atmo- sphere to deal with the last issue," Sartaj Aziz. Pakis- tan's foreign minister, said in the margins of the recent Lahore summit. His views have been echoed privately by other senior Pakistani officials.

A power deal may prove early fruit of this tentative rapprochement. In earlier talks, the two sides resolved the problem of linking Pakis- tan’s power ' grid with

India’s, which suffers wider fluctuations in power. It was agreed to isolate a Pakistani substation from its domestic grid, enabling it to be the link with India.

Officials from both sides also agreed that Pakistan would at first supply 300MW of power, though this could rise quickly to 600MW and eventually to 2,000MW depending on the amount of surplus power arising from private power projects under construction in Pakistan.

Pricing, however, remains unresolved. Pakistan has insisted the tariff should be set at a level commensurate with the price of power from the latest private power plant to enter its domestic grid - around 7 cents per kilowatt hour. India has said it would be prepared to pay only the marginal cost of Pakistan's surplus power plus a small surcharge. This would place the tariff around 3 cents to 4 cents a unit The two sides have also to agree what component of the over- all price would be paid in foreign currency. India is looking to buy power over at least 10 years.

But despite currently wide differences over price, Indian officials say they are confi- dent agreement will be reached. "The deal is done, the parameters of the deal are definite,” says Pradlp Baijal. the Indian power j ministry official leading the 1 negotiations. I

PREPARATIONS^FOR REFERENDUM I

Proposals for a republic are unveiled in Canberra

An Australian president would be by »» '

minister from public nominations under draft legislation . _ unveiled yesterday on the proposed transition to a repub-

|jC-

The president would be head of state and ail rsferentres ; in the constitution to the British Queen, the current head at state, would be removed if November’s national referen- dum approves the move to a republic.

Under the draft legislation, a president would need, approval by two-thirds of. the combined parliament. The president would serve a five-year term and could be .. . sacked by the prime minister if parliament approved the dismissal wttWn 30 days.

The referendum will involve two separate baliot papers. To succeed, a referendtro requires a national majority and. a majority in four states: Gwen Robinson, Sydney

PRESSURE ON PARLIAMENT

Thailand pursues reform drive

Thailand's cabinet yesterday resolved to extend indefinitely the current parliamentary session, due to end on March 22, in order to push through long delayed economic, legal and political reforms.

The decision came after a committee of the country s appointed Senate made significant changes to a crucial bankruptcy bffl that are unacceptable to the government and the International Monetary Fund. The full Senate will meet on Friday to ratify the changes. H they do so. the Ml and other legal changes doukj be delayed by up to six months before the government can pass its own version.

The extension of the parliamentary session puts pres- sure on senators to follow the government’s original bank- ruptcy bill and gives the government time to work with the Senate to reach mutually acceptable modifications of other legal changes dealing with foreclosure and land leases.

The next ordinary session of parliament is scheduled to begin in late June. Delay of the key legislation until that time could jeopardise further disbursement of funds from the IMF and World Bank. Ted Bardacke, Bangkok

INDIAN ECONOMY

Growth forecast ‘optimistic’

India's economy will post slower growth this fiscal year than the officially estimated GDP growth rate of 5.8 per cent, according to a leading independent think tank, which calls the government's early estimates of agricultural out- put “optimistic''.

The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, the Bombay- based economics research agency, estimated growth this fiscal year, ending this month, el closer to 4.5 per cent It bases its lower assessment on likely agricultural produc- tion growth of 1.5 per cent against the government's esti- mate of 5.3 per cent

The agency pointed out that grain production had grown only 1.5 per cent this year, meaning other farm products . would have to rise in output by over 10 per-cent to justify government figures. Growth in non-food gratis sectors, it said, had averaged no more than 5 per cent throughout this decade. Mark Nicholson, New Delhi

Vintage 1945

HK AND BEIJING DEALS GATESALLIES WITH HK TELECOM AND CHINESE GOVERNMENT __

Microsoft to put Beijing online

By Rahul Jacob in Hong Kong and Louise Ketioe hi San Francisco

Microsoft, the world's largest software company, will today announce a partner- ship with China Telecom and the Chinese govern- ment's State Economic and Trade Commission, in a proj- ect that involves linking gov- ernment ministries to the internet.

Bill Gates. Microsoft chair- man, who is due to sign the deal today in Shenzhen, said the project was an important milestone in the construc- tion of China’s information infrastructure.

More than 40 government ministries are involved in

the project, which is designed to promote a new “service orientation" by the ministries. Microsoft said.

As part of the partnership, Microsoft will donate a wide variety of software as well as technical support and con- sulting services.

Earlier, Mr Gates spoke in Hong Kong, where he announced an on-line ser- vices alliance with Hong- kong Telecom the territory’s dominant telephone service. The deal ! will allow com- puter users to rent software on a one-off basis, download films and play interactive video games. “What we’ve got here is the internet In a more powerful form than 99 per cent of the computer

users in the world have access to," said Mr Gates.

In the race to position itself for the convergence of the PC and TV, Microsoft has been buying stakes in cable companies in the US. Yesterday’s deal allows it to combine with Hongkong Telecom to deliver high-speed broadband ser- vices of Hong Kong's state- of-the-art telephone network. In March 1998, Hong Kong became the first city In the world to deliver fully Inter- active TV, including home shopping and video on demand.

Analysts said the deal offered Microsoft a high den- sity population laboratory to test new applications and

also gave Hongkong Tele- com’s interactive multime- dia service a range of new functions. "Microsoft is excited to expedite the con- vergence of PC. TV and tele- communications technolo- gies with Hongkong Telecom," said Mr Gates.

Hongkong Telecom said the new services could be used, for example, by stu- dents to access lectures and would enable businesses to train -on -demand using the PC. “What Microsoft is get- ting is someone to act as a. 'betasite’ for services it is testing from a technological and consumer standpoint," said Lloyd Fisher, Salomon Smith Barney telecom ana- lyst.

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South Korea looks to smaller businesses to lift it from recession and create jobs

John Burton reports the conglomerates, once the engine of the economy, have been replaced In favour by more specialist groups

The chairmen of South Korea's big conglomer- ates, or chaebol were once the honoured guests at the Blue House, the presi- dential mansion. Now it is the turn of small business.

At one recent gathering, President Kim Dae-jung was host to the world’s leading makers of tents, motorcycle helmets and nail clippers. “We want to encourage the growth of small business by recognising small Korean companies that are already global leaders,” said a presi- dential aide.

The government alms to encourage competitive niche players in a nation where j big was considered beautiful ' until last year's economic crisis, when the chaebol were blamed for poor investment decisions. A more balanced industrial structure would reduce the chaebol's over- whelming market and finan- cial dominance, while pro- moting specialised companies with the flexibil- ity to respond rapidly to global economic trends.

“Small business will be the salvation of the Korean economy. There jre plenty or success stories and there will be a lot more if eco-

nomic restructuring suc- ceeds." said Peter Irving, head of London-based Atlan- tis Investment Management, which invests in small and medium-sized listed Korean companies.

He cites the example of Medison, a medical equip- ment company, that has become a leading global

hen Marvin, research head at Jardine Fleming in Seoul.

The government has qua- drupled spending on the small business sector to Won4,000bn (J3J>bn), includ- ing providing cheap loans and venture start-up capital

The goal is to create more Jobs as South Korea's unem- ployment rate hits nearly 9

The goal is to create more jobs as unemployment hits 9 per cent

manufacturer of ultrasound systems. Other promising sectors for entrepreneurs include electronics and phar- maceuticals.

These industries, along with food companies, have become the favourite invest- ments among four foreign- managed equity funds estab- lished by the government last year to pump Sl.3bn into small and medium-sized businesses.

Small companies bore the brunt of last year's financial crisis and bankruptcies among them climbed by a third to nearly 23.000. "If you were a small business, you just disappeared," said Step-

per cent from less than 3 per cent a year ago. “Seventy per cent of the budget increase in the first half of this year is devoted to creat- ing jobs, with the emphasis on developing small busi- nesses." said Lee Kyu-sung, the finance minister.

Korea's 2.6m small and medium-sized companies already employ nearly 80 per cent of the nation's work- force.

But critics say the govern- ment's policy does not go enough. “The missing ele- ment of corporate reform is a decisive shift In the bal- ance between the chaebol and small and medium-sized

enterprises. The government keeps throwing more money at failed chaebol rather than small companies." said Jang Ha- sung, a professor of finance at Korea University-

Institutional barriers to the development of small businesses include the bank- ing system. Despite recent reforms, banks still lack the credit analysis skills to eval- uate small businesses and demand substantial collat- eral for loans. That makes it difficult for entrepreneurs to raise capital.

But analysts are hoping the planned takeover of Seoul bank and Korea First, two of Korea's biggest banks, by HSBC Holdings and a US financial consor- tium led by Newbridge Capi- tal might change the situa- tion.

The foreign bankers are expected to have a better ability to conduct risk assessment. “The foreign- owned banks will the lead the way in lending to small businesses and I expect Kor- ean banks will eventually follow suit." said a western diplomat

If the banka do change their ways, the Blue House might one day host a Korean Bill Gates rather than just the world's biggest maker of nail clippers.

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INANCLAL TIMES WEDNESDAY MARCH .0 1999

THE BRITISH ECONOMY

Budget projections move nation closer to euro criteria

By Wolfgang MQncbau, Economics Correspondent

The economic projections in yesterday's Budget, announced in the House of Commons, have moved the UK a step closer to meeting the government’s own quali- fying “tests" for membership of the euro.

The Budget’s central pro- jections for economic growth

suggest the economic cycles in the UK and the euro-zone are more closely aligned than previously, as both economies are projected to go through a period of slow economic growth in 1999 fol- lowed by a pick-up In growth next year.

The government previ- ously cited the misalignment in the economic eye les as one of the main obstacles for

UK membership of the euro. The Budget's forecast of 1999 growth of between 1 and 1-5 per cent pitches the UK at a level only slightly below recent projections for Ger- many. The forecast of eco- nomic growth of between 2J25-2.75 per cent in 2000 puts the UK on the same plateau as the rest of the euro-zone.

With the 1999 Budget, the UK also fulfils all but one of

the Maastricht criteria for membership of the single currency, which stipulates Tnavitnuffi levels of deficits, public debt, inflation and long-term interest rates, and which sets out conditions for exchange-rate stability.

Mr Brown said yesterday: “In line with our golden rule, even under our most cautious assumptions, we are balancing the current

budget over the economic cycle. And far the first time in a generation we are elimi- nating the current structural deficit-”

The UK, however, still faces one big qualifying hur- dle due to the government's refusal to enter the new exchange-rate mechanism linking the euro to the other European Union currencies. Mr Brown argues that ERM2

membership is not formally required by the Maastricht Treaty. The European Com- mission and other countries apply a different legal inter- pretation of the treaty, insisting the UK must enter the ERM2 for two years before joining the euro.

While the UK’s macroeco- nomic performance is likely to facilitate future member- ship of EMU. some of yester-

day’s tax changes may accentuate the differences in tax systems and structures between the UK and some other European countries.

Mr Brown yesterday bailed a new lower corpora- tion tax rate of 30 per cent as “the lowest rate of any msynr country in Europe and the lowest rale of any major industrialised country any- where-'

CHANCELLOR’S SPEECH LOWEST LEVELS OF TAX IN GENERATION

‘Enterprise and fairness’ emphasised

By Deborah Hargreaves in London

“A Budget for Britain to succeed in the new economy and lead in the new cen- tury.” is how Gordon Brown, chancellor of the exchequer, opened yesterday's announcement of monetary and fiscal measures for the coming year.

“This is a Budget built on the centra] idea that our future depends on enterprise and fairness together," he said. In line with its bid to encourage enterprise and innovation along with family life, the government has slashed business and per- sonal taxes to the lowest lev- els in a generation.

The Budget heralded a shake-up in competition pol- icy. new measures to encour- age small businesses and tax breaks for entrepreneurs. “Britain must make a quan- tum leap in skills, innova- tion. competition, informa- tion technology’ and small business,” said Mr Brown. “It is wholly unacceptable that consumer goods can still cost up to twice as much in Britain as in Amer- ica.”

The chancellor announced seven major reforms for business. He reduced the level of corporation tax to 30 per cent from April, calling it the lowest rate in British history and in any major industrialised country'. The small companies tax was cut to 20p benefiting 350.000 companies.

For the very smallest busi- nesses with profits of up to £10,000 (S16.000) a year, there

Optimism on growth rates

Britain’s growth rate will bo between one per cent and

1.5 per cent this year, Gordon Brown, the chancellor, said yesterday, Deborah Hargreaves writes.

Sharp cuts in interest rates by the Bank of England, the UK central bank, have led to government expectations of a robust bounceback for the economy next year. The growth rate will rise to 225 per cent to 2.75 per cent in 2000 and 2.75 per cent to 3.25 per cent in 2001 , Mr Brown said. British interest rates of 5.5 per cent are now at their lowest long-term rate for 40 years with inflation measured at

2.5 per cent

will be a new starting tax rate of lop in the pound from April 2000. The legislation is aimed at ensuring those who take risks are rewarded: 85 per cent of the firms gaming from the new rate have fewer than 10 employees - “the very firms we most want to see grow, the very firms whose growth will cre- ate the greatest number of new jobs".

In recognition of the diffi- culties faced by manufactur- ers from a strong pound and global instability, Mr Brown announced £325m to allow small to medium-sized busi- nesses write off 40 per cent of all they invest in the com- ing year.

Tax cuts for key personnel in high-risk businesses were also introduced along with proposals for an all-employee share ownership scheme. Tax credits for small compa- nies investing in research and development would allow them to underwrite up to a third of their costs.

The chancellor also announced measures to upgrade Britain’s science and high-tech industries with an additional ElOOm for the £600m joint infrastruc- ture fund to renew the sci- ence capital base and E20m start-up funding for hi-tech venture capital funds. This would be accompanied by a national IT strategy with computers available to all communities across Britain. Environmental measures aimed at reducing carbon emissions by 125 per cent by 2Q10 included proposals for an energy' levy on business from April 2001 which would cut emissions by 1.5m tonnes of carbon a year. But this controversial measure would only be introduced after widespread consultation with industry. It would also be accompanied by £50m to encourage businesses to invest in new environmental technologies.

In an effort to help the lower-paid, the chancellor introduced a new lOp rate of income tax for the first £1,500 of earnings from April and a lp cut in the basic rate of Income tax to 22p from April 2000.

In a bid to assist families, he announced a tax credit for parents to replace the married couples' allowance.

Traditional gesture: Gordon Brown, the chancellor, holds the Budget red box aloft outside his London residence Smeaa Lynch

Company share schemes boosted

By Jean Eagtesbam In London

Employees will for the first time be able to buy shares in their company using their pre-tax salary under a new share scheme designed to build a “democracy for enterprise”, the chancellor announced.

However, experts said the tax breaks were not as gen- erous as Gordon Brown had implied.

They also said the plan was unlikely to achieve the government's stated goal of doubling the number of com-

panies that offer share schemes to all employees.

The scheme, which comes into effect next year, allows employees to defer tax but not to avoid it altogether. “The chancellor did imply it was more tax-advantaged than it is: it’s a benefit, but it’s not completely tax-free." said Sarah Hyde, a partner at accountants Ernst & Young.

Employees can buy shares from untaxed income but they have to pay income tax on the purchase price when the shares are sold. Shares

sold within three years will also be subject to capital gains tax.

The scheme is a hybrid of the two existing all- employee schemes - profit sharing, in which employers distribute part of their prof- its by way of free shares, and save-as-you-earn tSAYEi. in which employees hare to save for shares but can buy them at a signifi- cant discount to the market

price.

-The new scheme will give employers the discretion to give their workforce an

A mass of figures adds up to a modest redistribution of wealth

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Philip Stephens picks through a plethora of Budget measures to find a vote-winning theme of help for the poor and hard-working

To blink was to miss the economics in Gordon Brown’s speech. The pace of growth had slowed but would pick up. Inflation was low and would remain so. Public finances were in good shape. The last Budget before the millennium, the

chancellor of the exchequer- asserted, would leave behind a century of sterile ideologi- cal conflicts between right and left. Then it was on to the serious politics.

Mr Brown told us that while the Bank of England sets interest rates and fiscal policy is on automatic pilot, the Treasury has become the engine room of social policy. It promises a fairer society - and a dynamic economy. The chancellor sees his task as building a bridge between the two.

As usual it was a confident performance. No one quite

commands the House of Commons like Mr Brown. If there was a criticism of the style, it was that his mes- sage was often lost in a bliz- zard of technical detail and populist wheezes. As corpo- ration tax cuts made way for research and development tax credits, enterprise man- agement incentives and tax- free Individual Learning Accounts, you could hear the accountants cheering.

The numbers - £4bn here. £6bn there - deliberately inflated the Immediate changes. Mr Brown could never resist rolling up sev- eral years' tax cuts and pub- lic spending commitments into one big package. For tbe record, the net “giveaway’' In the next financial year is a fraction over Elba.

These are small points. The assault on the middle classes that many bad feared

and a few had hoped for did not materialise. It was never planned. Tony Blair’s gov- ernment has elections to win. A lOp income tax rate makes a good campaign pitch. So does a new tax credit for children. And a £100 winter heating allow- ance for pensioners rich and poor could be worth a lot of votes in elections to the Scottish parliament.

The calculation is that the middle classes can live with the (deferred) abolition of mortgage tax relief and the married couples' allowance. There will be cries of out- rage from the moral minor- ity - but Mr Brown is prob- ably right.

This, though, is a redistri- butive Budget - just as were the two that preceded it. Trawl through the dozens of changes in the Budget Red Book. Add up the rows of

pluses and minuses. And two things are clear. The first is that Mr Brown has paid for cuts in high-profile direct taxes with increases in more obscure, mostly Indirect taxes. The second is that, by and large, the changes shift a modest amount of money from the higher-paid to those at the bottom of scale. Thus the new family tax credit will be paid for through increased National Insurance contribu- tions for those near the top of the income scale. Com- pany car drivers will pay to keep the pensioners warm.

Some of this represents direct no-st rings -attached transfers to the poorest - particularly pensioners and families with children. But the main beneficiaries - as tbe chancellor so often reminded us - are those able and willing to work.

Which takes us to Mr Brown’s main political pur- pose: to square the circle of orthodox economics and social justice. Work, in tbe

chancellor’s mind, is the only way the government can lever up tbe life chances of the least privileged.

The conditions attached to the New Deal welfare-to- work programme - tough- ened again Tor the young In this Budget - provide the stick: a plethora of tax incen-

Ihe Budget on FLcom

The Budget measures are covered on foe FT web. site at FTntntfbudgot It Is caring the chance***# speech to -foe Hou» ot . Commons In hi* as we8 a derated analysis of his actions and pafcies by FT commentators

in him is set on changing the culture of our society. The poor - or rather those among them St for employ- ment - are to given oppor- tunity. And with it a decent income. But they must be willing to work For it The question is whether the middle classes, whose views are so earnestly tracked in 10 Downing Street, will buy the package. The answer is a conditional

fives and credits proride the carrot. And there lies the importance of the lOp starting rate of income tax. Purists wifi argue that a higher threshold would have been fairer. But that misses the point. What counts for Mr Brown is the demonstra- tion effect - work pays.

The Scottish Presbyterian

yes.

Mr Brown has credit in the bank. The government’s most precious, and for many, unlikely asset is the percep- tion that it is competent to run the economy. Sure, the chancellor may be chipping away at some of the tax priv- ileges of tbe better-off, but be has kept his word on inflation and spending. He is a credible guardian of tbe nation’s finances.

And there is no hint of class envy in the redistribu- tion. With tax cuts Cor small companies and new incen- tives for entrepreneurs, the

All this is conditional. The present equanimity among the voters of Middle England is built on their own prosper- ity. Higher taxes slip by unnoticed when incomes are rising. Jobs are safe and interest rates are falling.

Mr Brown's economic fore- casts are built on optimism. Manufacturing is already in recession. The rest of the economy is perilously close to it. The national mood will change if he is wrong.

Budget-by-Budget. this chancellor Is edging in the direction of a new society. But social engineering is a perilous business. Voters are fickle, and one day the Con- servatives will present a credible opposition.

BRITAIN

Strategy launched to foster IT-literate society

By Deborah Hargreaves

effective discount, by match- ing any shares bought with up to two free shares.

Experts applauded the extra room for manoeuvre that this would give companies.

The government has linked the relatively low number of employee owner- ship schemes in the UK with the country’s poor productiv- ity. About 7 per cent or the UK workforce participates in such schemes at the moment in contrast to 10 per cent in the US and 23 per cent in France. ...

chancellor presents himself as a friend of the hard- working rich as well as the deserving poor. That’s clever politics as well as sensible economics.

Enhanced role sought for European nations in Nato

Entry to euro urged in Rover rescue plan

By Haig Sknonian in Geneva

By Alexander fticofl. Defence Correspondent

Changes to Nato command structures to give Europe much greater ability to launch military missions without US participation are to be proposed by the UK government today.

In a speech at the Royal United Services Institute in London. George Robertson, chief UK defence minister, will expand on the European defence initiative launched last year by Tony Blair, the prime minister. He will urge allies to agree on new steps at the alliance’s 50th anni- versary summit in Washing- ton next month.

Under the proposals, new European Union capabilities should be built within Nato, without setting up a sepa- rate EU body or duplicating Nato assets. Decisions to deploy forces would con-

tinue to be taken by individ- ual governments, not any EU or supranational body.

For Europe to tackle situ- ations that do not demand a full Nato response, ’’we should build on the provi- sions that allow Europe access to Nato's military assets and capabilities for European-led operations." Mr Robertson wrote in a summary of his proposals.

He will suggest that the post of deputy supreme allied commander Europe should be upgraded to ulti- mate commander of Europe- only forces. The post, until now held by a UK officer, would be rotated.

Europe would need to ensure reliable access to Nato resources. “We could identify a range of European command options and force packages for European-led operations, and take steps to ensure they are regularly

exercised,” according to Mr Robertson.

The proposals are likely to be welcomed by other Euro- pean nations, which have long desired a stronger Euro- pean defence identity. The immediate problem will be France’s absence from Nato's command structure because of a long-standing dispute with the US.

Mr Robertson will argue other European countries need reform their armed ser- vices in a similar way to the UK, stressing rapid deploya- bility of troops to deal with crises, and downplaying the need for national defence.

Javier Solana. the Nato secretary-general, yesterday said the alliance was ready For a stronger European role. Building it within Nato would ensure that Nato members outside the EU - Iceland. Norway and Turkey - would not be excluded.

Werner Samann. new chairman of Rover, yester- day urged the UK govern- ment to join the euro “as soon as possible", as he set out six priorities to restore the UK subsidiary of BMW to profitability.

“We would like to export products, not jobs." he said. “With a high pound, the dan- ger is that we export jobs."

The amount of UK govern- ment aid to be made to tbe German carmaker is one fac- tor likely to affect its deci- sion on investing In boil ding new models at Rover’s Long- bridge plant in Birmingham, central England.

Mr SSmann focused his fire on performance in the UK. Rover’s prime market, where sales and market share have crumbled. To boost performance, he

announced a push on new products, marketing, quality'

and public relations.

BMW is expected to announce in its 1998 results later this month that Rover lost at least DM1.5bn t£0.83bn). based on its con- servative accounting stan- dards. As a first step to improve penetration of the crucial small family car mar- ket, Rover will later this year launch revised versions

of Its slow-selling 200 and 400 models. Mr SSmann said the revised cars, codenamed "Jewel” and “Oyster", would be much more than facelifts.

Mr Stimann. an engineer previously in charge of BMW’s engine and gearbox operations, said Rover had BMW's backing to remain a full-range carmaker.

However, a decision on whether the new models will be built at Longbridge is not

expected until BMW’s super- visory board meets later this month. "As chairman of Longbridge. I'm fighting for Longbridge." he said.

Analysts have said Rover wotdd need to build at least 500,000 units a year to justify the heavy investment in a new “platform” - or basic engineering structure - for the cars.

Geneva Motor Show, Rage 16

Formula for arms handover goes to Sinn Fein

y John Murray Brown In Belfast

The Ulster Unionist party yesterday met Sinn Fgin to propose a way out of the weapons Impasse that is blocking formation of a new power-sharing administr- ation in Northern Ireland.

The pro-British party told the political wing of the Irish Republican Army that the

executive could be estab- lished on a simple written assurance that IRA disarma- ment had started from Cana- da's Gen John de Chaste lain, who chairs the international body overseeing the destruc- tion of Illegal arms.

The proposal was made by- David Trimble, the Ulster Unionist leader and the province's first minister, to Gerry Adams, the Sinn Fein

president, during a 75- minute meeting near Belfast, tbe regional capital

Mr Trimble said "a limited amount of progress was made". The UUP bas demanded a “verifiable start” to IRA disarmament before Sinn Fein enter the 10-member executive, which is due to take over running the province when powers are transferred from the

UK parliament in London.

However, the IRA - which advocates a united Ireland - has given no indication of being prepared to change its position that there will be no arms decommissioning.

The latest plan envisages a 3-hour gap to await a fax from Gen. de Chastelain on March 29 - the new deadline set by the UK government for the transfer of powers

and the day executive mem- bers are due to be nom- inated. This would provide a face-saving formula for both sides.

It is unclear whether Mr Trimble realistically believes Sinn Ffetn will take up his offer. But by detailing a com- promise formula, officials say Mr Trimble is keen to emphasise the “inevitability of decommissioning.

C0ti

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Gordon Brown yesterday heralded an information technology strategy to make Britain a computer-literate, technology-friendly society.

The chancellor said: the government -would spend £1.7bn fS2.7tm) to encourage wider use of computers. This aims to allocate’ ESito to" fund a network of np to l,000 . computer learning centres in schools, libraries, colleges and internet cafes.

These centres open for up. to 14 hours a day and at weekends to encourage both children and adults , to explore -the uses of. IT.-- “A - whole new network, of com- puter learning with one par- pose only, that the whole of Britain Is equipped for the information age.” lie said; . .'

The government will sub- sidise computer rental for low-income families and allow workers ta use com- puters loaned by employers without being taxed on them as a benefit-in-kind. . .

“Anyone left out of the new knowledge revolution will be left behind In the new knowledge -economy," Mr Brown said. “So we will pioneer a system under which local partnerships will be able to loan computers and software in the new cen- tury the way local’ ffbrdries have loaned books in the last century.”

The strategy will see 32.000 schools connected to the internet and 370.000 teachers trained to use computers. Teachers will have access to funds of £20m to buy 100,000 computers for home use.

This year's finance bill will also allow far electronic filing of tax returns. The government is modifying its IT systems to enable inter- net filing of VAT and self- assessment returns by April 2001 and employers' tax returns by April 2002.

Individual Learning Accounts will be expanded to provide tax-free assistance for learning computer skills. Both employers and employ- ees will be able to make tax- free contributions to these accounts. . . . .

Tax credits for research and development will be introduced for the first time in the UK next year, as part of the government’s drive to stimulate scientific innovation, Clive Cookson and David Pilling write.

The £150m R&D Tax Credit for small and medium-sized enterprises wifl cut the after- tax cost of research by 127a per cent for profitable com- panies. It will reduce the immediate cash cost of R&D by 24 per cent for loss-mak- ing companies.

Loss-making companies will receive this benefit instead of the present arrangement, in which they carry forward accumulated losses - often over several years - to write off against any future profits.

In addition, the govern- ment will extend first-year capital allowances that allow small and medium-sized companies to write off 40 per cent of capital investment, at a cost of £325m in the com- ing year.

The Bioindustry Associa- tion said it had long cam- paigned For an R&D tax credit. The initiative was “excellent news".

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FINANCIAL TIMES

Caution in City over Budget handouts

THE BRITISH ECO NOMY

Cut in corporation tax wins welcome

By Philip Cogftan and Mcadv m London

Reaction to the Budget in

the_JC ty of London was guarded after the chancellor proved to be more generous with tax handouts and spending increases than most forecasters bad expected.

Economists had been looking for a “neutral" bud- get with no net handout to taxpayers on the grounds that Gordon Brown would be constrained by the possible effect on public finances of an economic slowdown.

Bob Semple, the BT Alex Brown strategist, said: “There Is a fair bit of demand management involved. My guess is that the equity market reaction will be positive but gilts will be more suspicious. It looks like there will be a fiscal stimulus of £3-5bn i$5.63bn) in 2001, a likely election year."

Some saw the Budget as altering the outlook for interest rates with the Bank of England, the UK central bank, likely to react cau- tiously to the boost to thee- conomy.

Tax up by stealth, says opposition

William Hague, leader of the opposition Conservative Party, accused Mr Brown of being the “pickpocket chancellor," increasing taxes by stealth despite the chfnc®ilor’s presentation, writes Deborah Hargreaves.

Paddy Ashdown, leader of Britain's third party, the Liberal Democrats, said the chancellor had adopted a “scattergun approach,” attbough he welcomed many of the measures.

The party branded the new 10 pence rate of income tax as an expensive gimmick. Malcolm Bruce, its Treasury spokesman, said: “The Budget means well, but Gordon Brown has put gimmickry and complexity before fairness and simplicity."

Richard Jeffrey, Charter- house group economist, said: “I suspect this is going to give the economy too much of a stimulus. Consequently, we will get too strong

NEWS DIGEST

ENVIRONMENTAL REFORMS

Energy tax expected to raise minimum of $2.8bn

An energy tax on business, as part of "the largest and most radical package of environ mental tax reforms ever announced in this country”, was announced yesterday among the Budget measures by Gordon Brown, chancellor of the exchequer. The tax is expected to raise at least El .75bn ($2.8bn) in Its first full year. Mr Brown promised “significantly lower rates of tax for energy-intensive sectors that improve their energy efficiency. Energy-intensive sec- tors are being asked to come forward with proposals, which may include trading in carbon "permits".

Mr Brown said that the government was implementing the recommendations made by Lord Marshall, the chair- man of British Airways, who led a government taskforce on the business use of energy last year. The chancellor said the energy tax would cut carbon pollution by 1.5m tonnes, as part of a programme of measures announced in the Budget that would together cut carbon pollution by 3m tonnes. Vanessa Houkler, London

TOBACCO DUTY

Increase disappoints industry

The immediate 17.5p increase on the price of 20 cigarettes means that a pack of 20 sold in the UK will cost £3.82 ($6.1 5) compared with £1 .98 for a similar pack in France, the UK Tobacco Manufacturers' Association said yester- day. Mr Brown said the government would continue increasing tobacco excise by 5 per cent above inflation.

While tobacco smuggling may be costing £1.5bn in lost excise each year, this could not undo a policy on ciga- rettes for "good and urgent health reasons”, the chancellor said. But cigarette manufacturers who had hoped for a duty cut said the government had failed to recognise that high tobacco taxes were actually causing smuggHng.

The Scotch Whisky Association was disappointed that tax had not been cut to help reverse the slide in UK whisky sales, saying there had been a drop in the UK mar- ket of around 7 per cent mainly “because shoppers are going overseas to France to buy cheaper whisky".

MOTORING AND FUEL

Tax cut on smaller cars

Unleaded petrol will rise by 3.79p a litre, taking average prices up to around the 67p a litre mark - about £3-04p ($4.89) a gaflon. Leaded petrol goes up 4_25p a litre to around 74.4p a litre; diesel rises 6.14p a litre to nearly 71p a litre. The annual car tax disc wifl be reduced by £55 from the current £150 for smaller cars from June 1. The rate for other care will rise by the level of inflation. Mr Brown said the duty would be frozen for 98 per cent of all bucks, and the Bee nee fee cut by up to £1 .000 for trucks and buses with clean engines. He also announced a reform of com- pany car tax to encourage the use of fuel-efficient care. This reform, he said, would cost the typical user about £1 a week. To cut pollution, employees will be able to get tax-free benefits from employer-run or employer- gufrgiHkiaH buses, car-sharing schemes and other environ- mentally-friendly means of getting to work.

FILM INDUSTRY

Extended tax break welcomed

The news that Mr Brown Men* to ^attend tto 1 ance available for new films made in the UK for anomer two years until July 2002 was welcomed by rthe rfflrr imIus- try MrBrown originally unveiled proposals to rflwM tot the production or ecquMton costs

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growth later in the year to which the monetary policy committee will be forced to respond by raising rates.”

The benchmark 10-year gilt fell by around half a point, pushing up the yield by about 5 basis points. Kevin Adams, gilts analyst at Barclays Capital, said the gilt market could face fur- ther weakness, especially at the short end of the market.

Short sterling, the mar- ket's vehicle for speculating on interest rate changes, fell on the back of the Budget, indicating that traders thought tbe chance of fur- ther rate cuts had been reduced. However, the con- tract still indicates the possi- bility that base rates will foil from the current 5.5 per cent to 5 per cent by September.

The equity market reacted rather better, with certain stocks and sectors benefiting from the expected boost to consumer spending. The FTSE 100 index, which was about 9 points ahead before Mr Brown began his speech, ended 28.9 points higher at 6.237.7.

Lex, Page 14; Currencies, Page 21; London Stocks, Page 28

Measures send clear signals that feared reforms of tax and avoidance rules are to be dropped, writes Jim Kelly

Thei sm in

here was good news for small and big business the Budget with a new lop corporation tax starting rate for 270,000 growing companies and clear signals that much feared reforms of capital gains tax and avoidance rules are to be ditched.

As expected the chancellor trumpeted already announced cuts in corpora- tion tax to 30p - and 20p for small companies - but in a surprise move Introduced a lOp rate for companies with taxable profits up to £10,000, tapered up to £50,000.

The chancellor took the opportunity not only to draw favourable comparisons with the UK's main economic competitors but also to hint that more good news might be on the way for industry: “For the life of this parlia- ment the rates will be 30, 20, and 10 or lower.”

But there was much better news for large companies buried in tbe government’s background statements to the chancellor's speech. Wholesale reform of capital gains tax for companies has been dropped following an angry reaction from industry which feared complicated

changes mirroring those for personal capital gains.

And the Treasury also gave the clearest hint yet that it may drop plans to introduce a General Anti Avoidance Rule (GAAR) which wouid give the tax authorities power to stop transactions constructed to limit tax bills.

The chancellor said it remained an “option” to bring in a GAAR “if more targeted legislation proved Ineffective" - “but the gov- ernment would not be pro- ceeding with a GAAR in this Budget or with a mini -GAAR for VAT on construction ser- vices".

“Big business will be extremely relieved - this is wonderful news,” said lan Barlow of KPMG. “CGT reform would not have worked and the GAAR could have undermined many ordi- nary commercial transac- tions."

“We are delighted with the announcement on the GAAR - it looks like a signal that they will quietly drop it in the longer term,” said Doug- las Fairborn, head of tax at Ernst & Young.

On personal capital gains tax, the chancellor said his

earlier reforms were designed to reward long term commitment with a lOp rate. He announced that by April 1 the first £7,100 would be free or CGT. “This mea- sure will exempt 10,000 more people from CGT alto- gether," he said in a fillip for small businesses.

In another measure which

will particularly help owners of family businesses, the chancellor raised the thresh- old at which inheritance tax at 40 per cent bites to £231,000 from £223,000 although stricter measures for hitting avoiders will be brought in and loopholes closed.

As visual, the Budget con- tained a raft of specific mea- sures designed to tackle cor- porate tax avoidance. “The budget included a ragbag of specific avoidance measures. At first sight the VAT group- ing changes look less draco- nian than feared," said Paul George, tax partner at PwC.

Other measures include:

Existing rules will be extended to stop artificial techniques designed to strip value our of subsidiaries prior to their sale to avoid tax.

Loopholes in the rules for North Sea corporation tax and petroleum revenue tax which could be exploited by the sale and leaseback of assets will be closed.

New tighter rules will be bought in to prevent compa- nies avoiding tax by chan- nelling UK dividends via controlled foreign companies (CFCs).

Legislation will be intro- duced to tax sums paid by landlords to induce tenants to take out a lease - so-called “reverse premiums". While

the use of these was wide- spread when property values collapsed in tbe 1980s they are far less frequently used now.

A whole range of anti- avoidance measures to pro- tect VAT will be introduced including measures targeted on construction services. Wholesale reform of the laws covering VAT Groups - which allow related compa- nies to rationalise their pay- ments - appears to have been sidelined after wide- spread opposition, but lim- ited reforms are proposed.

Tbe government con- firmed it is to close a loop- hole which allowed UK com- panies to avoid paying Stamp Duty Reserve Tax in mergers or acquisitions involving foreign currency bearer instruments. Other aspects of the SDRT regime are to be tightened up.

onal £250m in a full year.

IPT applies to motor, prop- erty, travel, and extended warranty policies. But it is not applied to life cover

Tax relief plan for intangible assets

By Alan Cane and Kevin Brown

Tbe government plans tax

relief on the costs of buying licences to offer the next generation of mobile phone services in a move with sig- nificant implications for cap- ital investment in intellec- tual property.

Under current legislation, the cost of a mobile phone licence would not qualify for capital allowances because it is defined as an intangible asset Now the chancellor is proposing to offer tax relief over the 20-year life of tbe

licences. Legislation will be introduced in 2000.

The government is plan- ning to auction four or five licences for the next genera- tion of mobile phones early next year with the aim oF raising a minimum of £1.5bn ($2.4bn) for the state.

Pam Jackson, international tax partner at PWC. said the UK was lagging behind other countries in the treatment of intangible assets. Ms Jack- son said US companies, for example, could acquire such property in the UK and then write it off against profits in the US.

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SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

BOOK REVIEW GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS

Worm at the heart of the blossom

Two US scientists have joined the attack on scale of agriculture’s genetic revolution, says

the speed and

Vanessa Houlder

AGAINST THE GRAIN The genetic transformation of global agriculture

Marc Lappe and Britt Bailey

Common Courage Press Si 4.95

Opposition to genetlcally modlfied rood has been rela- tively muted in the US. But last week two Californian researchers published a vig- orous attack on the speed and scale of the revolution.

Their book's message is that the genetic revolution in agriculture has not been accompanied by sufficient consideration of long-term concerns. The authors, who work for the Centre for Ethics and Toxins in north- ern California, argue that GM crops are being intro- duced on too large a scale, too quickly and with too little oversight

One problem, says Marc Lappe. a pathologist who co- wrote the book with Britt Bailey, an environmental scientist, is the growing power of a few agrochemical companies, perpetuating the trend towards monoculture, in which a single variety of a crop is grown on a vast scale.

This could have severe consequences for genetic diversity, increasing the risk of epidemics which - as the 19th century Irish potato blight showed - are more likely to occur among geneti- cally uniform food crops. The need to maintain genetic diversity makes a case for setting aside a per- centage of global crop acre- age to house non-engineered seeds. Mr Lappe says.

The authors are also anx- ious about the “short- sighted" overuse or particu- lar GM crops. They say it “is reminiscent of the eariy days of the antibiotic revolution", when antibiotics were put to relatively trivial uses that resulted in the emergence of antibiotic- resistant strains.

Their concerns are focused on crops engineered to pro- duce a toxin called Bt (Bacil- lus ihuringiensis). which con- trols insects while greatly reducing the need to use pes- ticides. They fear that over- use will make insects toler- ant of the toxin, which is widely used by organic farm- ers. “Over time, perhaps just one or two growing seasons, what has been an ecological miracle may become an eco- logical disaster." they argue.

The book also argues that the GM revolution will lead to far greater reliance on a small number of herbicides. In one case, it argues, regu- lators have overlooked the potential residual toxicity of an important breakdown product that could enter the human food chain.

The authors have other worries about the health risks of GM foods. Boosting the activity of a gene that makes critical amino acids may. in addition to confer- ring resistance to a herbi- cide. change the plant’s metabolism, creating by- products called isoflavon- oids. These have similarities with an important set of human hormones called phy-

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to estrogen, which may have implications for soy-based dairy foods - and particu- larly baby milk formula.

Mr Lappe says his work suggests that, if anything, levels of phvtoestrogens are lower in genetically engi- neered varieties than in con- ventional varieties. “It can cut both ways,” he says. But it underlines the case for assuming that there may be differences between GM crops and their non- engineered counterparts.

He argues for a “wholesale review of the regulation, testing and inspection of all engineered crops**. The fail- ure to label GM foods is the "ultimate foolhardiness" because it makes it impossi- ble to track transgenic crops in the food chain for possible adverse effects.

The perception that the US regulation system is tough is wrong, he says. The interac- tion of the Department of Agriculture, the Food and Drug Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency creates a regulatory “patchwork quilt" in which each agency

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can duck responsibility.

In this litany of concerns about regulation, there might be a risk of under- stating the potential benefits of genetic engineering. Per- haps the most powerful argument of the technolo- gy's proponents is that It offers a promising approach to feeding a growing world population while reducing damage to the environment.

Mr Lapp£ agrees there is a need for a generation of more productive crops, but says agrochemical compa- nies have so far developed fewer of these crops than their rhetoric suggests. The problem, he says, is that short-range economic consid- erations have driven the selection of genetic products, rather than choices based on long-term objectives or pub- lic benefits.

Mr Lapps admits to some pbi]flisnphir»i qualms about GM crops. But he insists that he is arguing Cor more public accountability and control, rather than outright rejection. “This isn't a book of blanket opposition to the technology. There might be real advantages. But there are legitimate questions to be asked."

Watch your step: Tecnomatix' a software program lor an electronics assembly Dns aHow

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY MANUFACTURING SOFTWARE

potential bumps and coUatons

Virtually perfect

Electronics manufacturers are borrowing from motor industry _ experience to get production right first time, writes Avi Machlis

Pit Is often difficult for manufacturers in the electronics industry, where new products are released every few months, to think about changes to production and design pro- cesses.

But in recent months 10 large electronics companies, including Toshiba of Japan. Bosch of Germany and Nokia of Finland, have started experimenting with virtual manufacturing soft- ware that has already made a big impact on the automo- tive industry. These technol- ogies allow companies to build realistic three- dimensional simulations of factories, eliminate potential production errors end save precious time in the hectic race to market “The manufacturing industry, and electronics [in particular], are looking for ways to accelerate time to market and optimise end-to- end process chains," says Bruce Jenkins, vice-presi- dent of Daratech, a Boston- based market research Sim for the computer-aided design, manufacturing and engineering industry (Cad Cam/CAE). “They are begin- ning to wake up to the opportunity that exists in the manufacturing and pro- duction engineering area.”

Cad technologies are already widely used in many industries. Automated pro-

duction is also widespread. But in recent years, Deneb, a US subsidiary of Dassault Syst&mes, Electronic Anima- tion of Iowa and Tecnomatix of Israel have introduced Cape, or computer-aided pro- duction engineering. Das- sault and EA are still focused mainly on the auto- motive and aerospace indus- tries. while Tecnomatix is leading the way into the electronics industry.

Tecnomatix hopes for a boost in its drive to pene- trate new markets from Parametric Technology (PTC), the Massachusetts- based company that is the biggest in the mechanical Cad Cam market. PTC announced yesterday at an industry conference in Chi- cago that it will Integrate Tecnomatix tools into its WindchiH suite of software for management of product and process life cycles.

Cape enables companies to streamline design of produc- tion processes, for example, by building three- dimensional computer simu- lations of assembly pro- cesses and production lines, complete with super-realistic images of rolling conveyor belts, robots and even human workers.

The Cape concept is to pin- point problems on screen, such as colliding robots or parts that do not fit In the past many of these mistakes

were caught only after costly trial and error.

Many electronics compa- nies have already invested heavily in Cad, Cam technol- ogies. Some have even intro- duced Cape technology for planning printed circuit boards. Until now, though, the planning of manufactur- ing has usually been worked out by hand or using tools developed in-house.

Harel Beit-On, Tecnomatix chief executive, says: “We recognised the same pattern

The concept is to pinpoint problems such as colliding robots or parts that do not fit

that we saw 10 years earlier in the automotive industry - There was something missing in the middle [between prod- uct design and manufactur- ing]."

Electronics companies will find it hard to ignore the benefits reaped by many car manufacturers. For example, Nissan, the Japanese car- maker. is cutting its new product cycle from between 20 and 25 months to 12 months with the help of Dynamo, a Tecnomatix pro-

PAUL TAYLOR IN LONDON

VIEWPOINT® FT

Route towards a third way

A new model promises cheaper internet access as service providers are encouraged to abandon subscription charges

The cost of accessing the internet has typically comprised two elements for dial-up consumers: a monthly subscription charge payable to the internet service provider and the per -minute cost of a local telephone call payable to the telecoms provider.

Two main business models have emerged: the North American one in which most local calls are free but internet users pay a relatively high monthly subscription charge: and the traditional European model In which monthly subscription charges are relatively low but local call costs are high.

Now, however, a distinct third model has emerged in the UK, where Dixons1 success with Freeserve, Us subscription-free service, has spawned lookalikes and encouraged a number of gristing ISPs to abandon their monthly subscription charges.

Freeserve has managed to attract 1.3m users (one in five UK internet users) since its launch In September, far outstripping the wildest estimates and making it a | focus of interest.

On the face of it, Freeserve and Its rivals represent an Interesting alternative for consumers tired of paying a flat monthly subscription fee that ranges between £7.50 and £15 ($12 and $24) a month, together with per-mlnute connection costs.

But as Eckard Pfeiffer. Compaq's chairman, reminded us recently, there

is no such thing as a free lunch. Freeserve and its rivals plan to recoup their costs through advertising and revenuesharing with the telecoms provider that connects the local nail, for which users continue to pay.

Dixons expects Freeserve to break even next month, six months earlier than planned. In the meantime, however, the success of the model has forced telecoms providers and ISPS to re-assess their options.

Just how readily the subscription-free model can be transferred outside the UK will depend on local marker conditions and national regulator environments. There are already similar services in France and Germany, and NetZero has set up a subscription-free service in the US.

In the UK one of the more bizarre - and greedy - reactions came from British Telecommunications, which told Oftel, the UK telecoms regulator, that it should be allowed to keep a higher proportion of the local call charges paid by subscription-free internet users. Simultaneously, BT removed the lp-a-minute charge it was making for its own internet access service. Click.

Some leading Independent ISPs in the UK believe they win be able to continue to charge monthly subscriptions for advertising-free, high-quality internet access and will boost their revenues by offering other services. But others are already preparing to jump ship.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Tlw FTs review of Information Technology appears on the first Wednesday of each month

As noted by Philip Lakelin, one of the authors of a report from Cambridge-based Analysis on competitive strategies for independent ISPs, independent ISPs face a rough ride over the next few years as competition Intensifies in the rapidly expanding worldwide market for Internet services.

Independent ISPs occupy a precarious position in the internet supply chain, acting as Intermediaries between the owners of the transmission networks over which internet traffic flows and the owners of content on the web. Maintaining this position requires them to compete in both the infrastructure business and the service-supply business.

Mr Lakelin says: “Over the next five years independent ISPs will find themselves increasingly required to Juggle the requirements of these two different business models.'’

Aside from the threat posed by subscription-free services, independent ISPs face growing competition ! from the established telecoms operators, while on the services side companies such as America Online and Yahoo! are redefining themselves as portals and shifting their main source of revenues away from basic access towards content-related services.

This suggests that with access margins continuing to be squeezed, dial-up access providers that fail to achieve at least 300,000 subscribers are unlikely to survive in the long term and that a much larger subscriber base will be required for ISPs relying heavily on advertising.

In the meantime, the regulator agencies, should

help foster competition by ensuring that telecoms services are “unbundled” and that dominant telecoms providers are unable to use their market might to crush their much smaller rivals.

At first sight, fixing the Year 2000 computer date problem is a no-win exercise. At best it leaves an organisation just where it started, able to continue its operations. But It need not necessarily be that way.

A study by PA Consulting confirms that anticipating the mlilpnirinm hug haa

created significant disruption and taken resources away from creating value-added IT for organisations.

However, the study also suggests that some organisations have seised the opportunity to revitalise the deployment of IT within their business. 'Tt is a - golden opportunity to upgrade, upskill and gain - competitive advantage from IT," the fiwflwrfai controller of a manufacturing company told the researchers.

Many companies have seized the opportunity to accelerate new investment in IT systems and infrastructure, replacing ageing networks arid ' enhancing systems.

The respondents, all of whom worked for organisations with trnnlia} turnover of more than £L50m, also noted that working relationships between business managers and the IT department improved, that resources are being managed better and that the importance of aligning IT to business requirements through an IT

strategy has been reinforced.

paid. taykmaiFT.com This column appears fortnightly.

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gram for assembly processes.

Mr .tonkins says: “I have no reason to think that the benefits won't be equally big, potentially, for the elec- tronics industry."

initial reaction from elec- tronics groups has been posi- tive. Toshiba has cut the moulding process of laptop computer carings from. 32 to 24 days using Valisys, a Tec- nomatlx tool for testing product tolerances.

Silicon Graphics, the US manufacturer of high-perfor- mance computers, is confi- dent that Tecnomatix will help it improve time-to- market and yield, “The systems are very graphical and use simple concepts," says a Silicon Graphics engi- neer. “It's also Intuitive and simulates the factory experi- ence.” Amid the enthusiasm, however, an engineer at one company noted: “It's expen- sive.”

While most car manufac- turers have large specialised engineering departments, electronics companies are often far less centralised To cater for this difference, Tec- nomatix has redesigned its tools to work on Windows NT operating systems instead of Unix, and a new product line. Tune, wffi be released in the next few weeks.

Amir Llvne, Tecnomatix vice-president bf marketing, says: “We wanted to meet the needs of those who don't want to spend two weeks learning a product"

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MARCH 10 I99y

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THE ARTS

Virtuosic spoofs enliven New York music

In 3 less-than-snazzv IqcrIp miaH-in d . .

Concerts, concerts n Bernheimer experiences the Eos Orchestra's 'Out There1 Music, including its latest commissioned piece, ‘Dracula1

Stellar symphonic concerts*1* °rchestTa’ a rather youthful

Costly concerts. Glamorous Tlie Venerable New York Philharmonic, under the safe, sane and often boring leadership of its incipient ex-Kapellmeister Kurt Masur

tends to Brahms and Beethoven at Lincoln Center. A long and glossy parade of visiting ensembles, representing cities from Atlanta to Zurich, annually wends its competitive way to Carnegie HaD. The guests play a lot of high-powered Tchaikovsky and Mahler and, like the resident orchestra, even venture a dutiful novelty once in while.

But, as is so often the case in musical New York, some of the most interesting events occur under modest auspices in less snazzy locales. Take, for example, the imaginative Eos

not-so- tittle band that specialises 113 Paying tribute to neglected masterpieces - and demi-masterpieces, too. Formed m 1995 by Jonathan Sheffer, an enterprising conductor who

forgotten oeuvre of Paul Bowles and Alexei HaiefT, tbe diverse compositions that have inspired the choreography of Merce Cunningham, and tbe changing faces of musical Americana as embodied by Gershwin. Copland

there” is ao example of adjectival slang, referring to “something unprecedented, beyond accepted norms." The selected vehicles by Charles Ives. Gy orgy Ligeti. David del Tredici and (are you ready?! Spike Janes

grateful for small favours.

Ives’ Three Pieces for Theater Orchestra invoked sonic landscapes from the turn of the century, terse tongue-in-cheek}' demonstrations of what can

_ uuuuur WD0 embodied by Gershwin. Copland and (are you ready.') bpike Jones happen when an iconoclast

The composer took his bows flourishing a

plays most of tts concerts in the churchly auditorium of the Society for Ethical Culture Central Park West. An uplifting message is emblazoned on the

on black and scarlet cape, no doubt imported

for the occasion from darkest Transylvania uemere

The Place Where People Meet *

To Seek The Highest Is Holy and Bernstein. There was

wound. nothing solemn, however, about

several directions at once to the lusty clashes of disparate drummers. Ear-stretching remains a healthy exercise, even though Sheffer and his orchestra delivered the trash goods rather

In tbe past, Sheffer and friends nave deftly balanced lofty ideals against practical limitations, offering sophisticated

performances within a casual milieu. The tone was pervasively serious when Eos examined the

the eclectic programme splashed across the platform last Thursday eight.

The event bore a title: " Out Then-" Music. Sheffer likes descriptive catch-alls. Arroramg to the impresario-boss, "out

didn't prove quite as innovative, as important or as stylistically independent, as one might have hoped. The concert did. however, turn out to be engaging. And. mure important, perhaps, much of it was funny. In the dour world of orchestral experimentation, one must be

Their penchant for delicacy proved more useful in “Mysteries of the Macabre,” a conflation of several arias sung by Gepopo. Chief of tbe Secret Police, in Ligeti's fabulous opera of the absurd, Le Grand Macabre (1978). In an inspired flight of perverse anti -type casting, the composer assigned the parodistic

showpieces to a coloratura soprano. Hie stratospheric diva in drag chirps intricate bursts of filigree that could cause a Queen of the Night or Zerbiuetta to tremble. Tbe juxtaposition of otherworldly abandon and grotesque elegance creates a nice tension, a classic example, if you win, of the Ligeti-split personality in excelsis- liana Davidson surmounted every impossible vocal hurdle with charming ease.

The big premiere on the agenda took the sprawling, arch and rather inconsequential form of Dracula, commissioned by Eos from David del Tredici. An amiable spoof of yesterday's horror- film cliches it can hardly withstand comparison with the composer’s limpid, bittersweet evocations of Lewis Carroll. Alfred Corn’s vampirical text

leaves no room for introspection, and, for better or worse (probably worse), Del Tredici allows his soon-to-be victimised protagonist to spend a lot of time speaking and only a little time singing. This ludicrous “Liebestod” is outfitted with background busy-music and embellished with quaint sound effects. Wendy Hill brought panache to the meanderings of the sacrificial heroine. The composer took his bows flourishing a black and scarlet cape, no doubt imported for the occasion from deepest, darkest Transylvania.

Sheffer closed tbe festivities with three virtuosic spoofs from the rude pen or Spike Jones, low-brow relics of the daffy 1940s intent on demeaning high-brow hits. There was a burping medley billed as UA Goose to the Ballet Russe," a buzzing-Bizet deconstruction called “Car Men,” and “Shhl Harry's Odd,” which translates, of course, as uSh6herazade.M Everyone went home chuckling - well, almost everyone.

NEW YORK THEATRE

Annie loses her ammunition

The casting of Bernadette Peters in the new revival of Irving Ber- lin's musical Annie Get Your Gun caused some consternation when it was announced last year. Surely a star known primarily for her creamy skin, hourglass figure and lyrically pure interpretations or Stephen Sondheim could not fit comfortably into the rough buckskins of the Wild West sharpshooter Annie Oakley.

The complainers, so aware of the mark that Ethel Merman put on the part at its premiere in 1946, seemed to forget that Annie Oakley as written need not be all brass and sass. Both Judy Gar- land, who was fired from the movie version, and Betty Hutton, who replaced her, oozed the kind of vulnerability that Peters is

By trying to etch a psychologically wounded Annie, the show is robbed of its surefire charms

known for; and Barbara Stan- wyck, who played the real-life markswoman in the 1935 film Annie Oakley, also suggested that the character could be more than a rifle-toting tomboy.

In the Marquis Theatre revival, however, tbe problem is not Peters's softness, so endearing in songs like "Moonshine Lullaby", but the pacing of her perfor- mance. She succumbs so quickly to tbe charms of Frank Butler, her rival and erstwhile colleague in Buffalo Bill's Wild West Show, that we are deprived of the satis- fying conclusion that sparring of a more Beatriee-and -Ben edict nature would provide. By trying to etch a psychologically wounded Annie. Peters robs the show of its surefire charms, which to ignite must concentrate on less analytical qualities.

Where Peters excels is in vocal technique and comedy. She hits her high notes as confidently as her character picks off pigeons. She mines laughs from moments that are not obviously exploit- able: by sounding out the letters of Frank’s name as she learns to read: by addressing tbe Sioux chief who has adopted her as “Papa Bull", by pausing ever so

expertly after Frank insults her, then replying that he is a “swol- len-headed cham-peen".

Even this sublime silliness, however, is problematic. Each time Peters does a slow burn she adds to the sluggish pacing that is the production's main detri- ment. And each time her direc- tor, Graciela Daniele, allows her to re-tailor a jaunty song like “I Got the Sun in the Morning" as a doleful ballad she only adds to the enervation.

In the second-act number “An Old Fashioned Wedding”, we do glimpse how marvelous Berlin's material can be. The peacock- proud Frank, quite dashingly played by Tom Wopat. insists that his and Annie's nuptials stay simple. Annie craves osten- tation. As he refuses to budge, she mocks his position, dancing around him and miming post -cer- emonial rice-throwing. They engage in repartee with a quick- silver lightness one would like to transfer to their other songs.

As for their colleagues onstage, they at least look their parts. Ronn Carroll, double-cast as the innkeeper Foster Wilson and the impresario Pawnee Bill, resem- bles Louis B. Mayer and evinces that Hollywood mogul’s brand of benign imperialism. Ron Holgate. as Buffalo Bill, is suitably impos- ing. And Gregory Zaragoza, as Sitting Bull, amusingly mocks the white man's every folly.

To address the concern that this musical presents Indians in a ridiculously outmoded fashion, the producers enlisted the old Broadway hand Peter Stone to rewrite Herbert and Dorothy Fields's book. He trimmed a rac- ist song and the most offensive dialogue, and updated several ref- erences, including a hilarious section about many tribes’ late- 20th-century predilection for opening gambling casinos on their reservations.

But neither scattered comic pleasures nor the fluid delivery of some of the show's profuse array of standards can compen- sate for a misconceived central performance and direction so clueless that, in the evening's worst moment, disco-ish dry ice wafts onstage during the peerless lament, “Lost in His Arms". This white man say Ugh.

Brendan Lemon

OPERA IN MONTE CARLO

Two bites at the cherry

The only part of L'amico Frits most opera-lovers know is the Cherry Duet. Mascagni's most delectable music certainly asks for an encore, but the way it got one at this performance must be unique. The occasion was the Sunday matinee at the Opera de Monte Carlo, the second of just three performances of a new pro- duction of this rarely staged opera.

It was about two-thirds of the way through that number that the unthinkable happened. Angela Gheorghiu lost her place and for a minute or so she and tbe orchestra persevered down different paths. Finally, conced- ing that 70 musicians and a con- ductor cannot be wrong, she stopped and proposed an action replay of tbe duet from the begin- ning - something I have never witnessed before in 30 years of opera-going.

Everybody hastened to put a good spin on it. The orchestra hurriedly flicked back through their pages. Tbe prompter, possi- bly fearing retribution, redoubled his efforts and turned the rest of the duet into a trio. As the sing- ing had been so beautiful, nobody seemed to mind. All the same, I would not recommend that she repeats the trick at La Scala, Milan. Italian audiences are known to gobble up faltering sopranos as an antipasto.

As the two principals account for almost everything in the opera that matters, it is a good idea to hire singers who will pull in a crowd. At Monte Carlo Gheorghiu and Roberto Alagna caused a rush for tickets that must have made the annual Grand Prix look positively seden- tary. Over the past couple of years the husband -and- wife team has flown from one opera house to another on a jetstream of con- troversy. A succession of public stand-offs with producers and managements culminated in their now-famous joint sacking from the Metropolitan Opera in New York. “Les enfants terribles de l’opGra" screamed a cover story on a leading French music magazine on rale at the airport. Still, as the fresh young lovers of Mascagni's opera, they could not have been better cast.

The great virtue of L'amico Fritz is that it is not CavaUeria rustiama. the much more famous opera that preceded it. In place of

Coy's gutsy drama and crude musical style. Mascagni was keen to show bow cultivated a com- poser he could be and the conver- sational delicacy of much of this next score is skilful and elegant, especially in the Cherry Duet.

To put this little incident behind them, both went on to give 110 per cent. Alagna, return- ing to a theatre where he made some notable early appearances, sang with ardent tone to make a □ear-ideal Fritz. Gheorghiu's Suzel may have lacked Latin warmth, but she knows exactly how to colour a phrase and there are signs the voice is growing- bigger and stronger. Mascagni

It was about two thirds of the way through that number that the unthinkable happened

barely gives the rest of the cast a look-in, but Anna Bonitatibus seized her brief opportunities as Beppe and Lorenzo Saccomani did what was needed as David. Cupid's match-maker.

The conductor, Evelioo Pido, gave a flaming performance of the Act 3 Prelude, but fortunately managed to keep his cool when his leading lady demanded that he stop the show and start again. The other big interest of the pro- duction was seeing the work of the other half of the Alagna co- operative, designers David and Fredfirico. Roberto's brothers. At this point the management of the Metropolitan Opera has to stifle a chuckle, as it brought down the guillotine when Roberto tried to suggest that his brothers take over La trmiaia in preference to the Met’s choice, a certain Franco Zeffirelli. In the event, the sets for L'amico Fritz were solid and conservative.

By the end there was plenty to be thankful for. The curtain fen to enthusiastic cries of “Bravi!". "Roberto!”, "Angela!" - every- thing except “Encore!" - but then we bad heard the hit num- ber twice already.

Richard Fairman

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INTERNATIONAL

Arts

conducted by James Levine in Mahler’s Symphony No. 3. With mezzo-soprano Michelle DeYoung, women of the Symphony Chorus and the Glen Ellyn Children’s Chorus; Mar 11, 12, 13

Guide

BERLIN

OPERA

Deutsche Oper Tel: 49-30-34384-01 Rise and Fall of the City of Mahagonny: by Kurt Weill, libretto by Brecht Neiw staging by Gunter Kramer, conducted by Lawrence Foster, with designs by Gottfried Pilz and Isabel Ines Qathar; Mar 11, 14

sffe: by

icted by Bruno rival of Liliana , first seen in ! ago. The cast is pqfij and Alberto

OPERA

Lyric Opera of Chicago Tel: 1-312-332 2244 www.tyricopera.org Die Meistersinger von Nflmberg: by Wagner. Conducted by Christian Thielemann in a staging by Kurt Hones, with designs by Andreas Reinhardt Mar 10, 13

DRESDEN

OPERA

Semper Oper

Tel: 49-351-46420 Ariadne auf Naxos: by R. Strauss. Conducted by Colin Davis in a new staging by Marco Arturo Mareili. Cast includes Susan Anthony and Jon Villars; Mar 14

EDINBURGH

CONCERT Queen's Hall Tel: 44-131-668 2019 Scottish Chamber Orchestra; Andrew Litton conducts the world premiere of Robin Holloway's Double Bass Concerto, performed by Duncan McTier. The programme also includes works by Dvorak and Schumann; Mar 11

LAUSANNE

OPERA

Op6ra de Lausanne, Theatre Municipal Tel: 41-21-310 1600 Dido and Aeneas: by Purcell/ Curlew River by Britten. Double-bill conducted by David Stem, with the Purcell staged by Marcel Bozonnet and the Britten by Yoshi Oida; Mar 12, 14

LONDON CONCERTS Royal Festival Hall

Tel: 44-171-960 4242

City of Birmingham Symphony Orchestra; conducted by Simon Rattle in Nicholas Maw's Odyssey: Mar 15

London Philharmonic Orchestra: conducted by Josd Serebner in a programme including works by Stravinsky. Piazzolla, De Falla and Rodrigo. With guitar soloist Slava Grigoryan and castanets soloist Lucero Tena; Mar 12

Philharmonia Orchestra; conducted by Christoph von Dohnanyi in Mahler's Symphony No. 9: Mar 13

MILAN

EXHIBITION Palazzo Reale

Tel: 39-02-8691 5738 L'Anima e il Volto: (The Soul and the Face): major exhibition of portraiture, comprising 370 works ranging over 400 yearn; to Mar 14

MUNICH

CONCERTS Philharmonic Gasteig

Tel: 49-89-5481 8181

Bavarian Radio Symphony Orchestra: conducted by Lorin Maazel in works by Mozart and Bruckner. With piano soloist Murray Perahia; Mar 10. 13

Munich Philharmonic Orchestra: conducted by Gianluigi GeJmetti in his own Prasanta Alma, and in Rossini’s Petite Messe solennelle;

Mar 11. 12

Philharmonic der Nalionen: conducted by Justus Frantz in works by Beethoven; Mar 14

EXHIBITION Haus der Kunst

Tel: 49-89-211270 Art Across Borders: Classical Modernism from Cezanne to Tinguely and World Art - as seen from Switzerland. Display of the collection made by Swiss recluse Josef Muller (1887-1977), which combined European modernism with classical antiquities and pre-Colombian art. Includes works by Cezanne, Kandinsky and Miro; to May 30

OPERA

Bayerische Staatsoper Tel: 49-89-2185 1920 wvm.staatstheater.bayem.de Katya Kabanova: by Janacek. Conducted by Paul Daniel in a staging by David Pountnsy, with sets by Stefan os Lazaridis and costumes by Marie Jeanne Lecca; Mar 12, 14

NAPLES

EXHIBITION

Museo dr CapocHmonte

Mattia Preti between Rome,

Naples and Malta: first of three special exhibitions marking the 300th anniversary of the death of Mattia Preti (1633-1699), the southern Italian painter known as 'll Cavaliere Calabrese'. The show emphasises the influence of Caravaggio, and includes about 60 paintings and 30 drawings by Preti and his contemporaries; to Jun 11

NEW YORK

CONCERTS

Avery Fisher Hall, Lincoln Center

Tel: 1-212-875 5030 www. Sncolncenter. org New York Philharmonic; conducted by Paavo JSrvi in works by Paul Crest on, Bartok and J. Brahms; Mar 11, 12, 13

OPERA

New York City Opera, New York State Theater

Tel: 1-212-870 5570 www.nycopera.com Lizzie Borden; by Jack Beeson. New production conducted by George Manahan in a staging by Rhoda LBvine, with Phyllis Pancella in the title role;

Mar 10, 13

PARIS

EXHIBITION Mus£e d'Orsay

Tel: 33-1-4049 4814 www.Musee-Orsay.1r Edward Burne-Jones: major retrospective of the British pre-Raphaelite painter, which forms the mainstay of the museum's ‘saison anglais’; to

Jun 6

OPERA

Opera National de Paris, Palais Gamier

Tel: 33-1-43439696 www.opera-de-paris.fr La Clemenza di Tito: by Mozart Conducted by Ivor Bolton in a staging by Willy Decker with designs by John MacFariane. Cast Includes Theo van der Walt and Christine Goerke; Mar 12, 15

PORTLAND

JAZZ

Schnrizer Concert Hall

Tel: 1-503-248 4335 Lincoln Center Jazz Orchestra; America in Rhythm and Tune. First date of the Duke Ellington centennial tour, led by Wynton Marsalis; Mar 10

ROME

EXHIBITION

Galleria Nazronaje d'Arte Modems

Tel: 39-06-322 981 Picasso 1937-1953: The Italian Years. Around 70 works, Including paintings, sculptures, ceramics and drawings, from the period between 1937, when Guernica was shown at the Exposition Unh/ersetle in Paris, and 1953, when Picasso himself organised major exhibitions In Milan and Rome. Includes loans from the Picasso Museum in Paris; to Mar 14

SAN FRANCISCO

CONCERTS

Davies Symphony Hall Tel: 1-415-864 6000 San Francisco Symphony and Chorus: conducted by Herbert Blomstedt In Bach's SL John Passion; Mar 11, 12. 13, 14

SEATTLE

OPERA Seattle Opera Tel: 1-206-389 7676 www.seaWeopera.org Vanessa: by Samuel Barber. Conducted by Yves Abel in a staging by Sharon Ott The title role is sung by Sheri Greenawald/Ashley Putnam; Mar 10, 13

TV AND RADIO

WORLD SERVICE

BBC World Service radio for Europe can be received in western Europe on medium wave 648 kHZ (463m)

EUROPEAN CABLE AND SATELLITE BUSINESS TV

CNN International Monday to Friday, GMT;

0630: MoneyRne with Lou Dobbs 13.30: Business Asia

19.30: World Business Today 22.00: World Business Today Update

Business/Market Reports: 05:07; 06:07; 07:07; 0820; 0&-.20; 10:20; 1120; 11:32; 12:20; 1320; 14:20.

At 08:20 Tanya Beckett of FTTV reports live from UFFE as the London market opens.

FINANCIAL TIMES WEDNESDAY MARCH 10 1999

- 1?^’’

COMMENT & ANALYSIS

MARTIN WOLF

Unreal remedy

'.The IMF is prescribing masochism for Brazil. Britain, post-ERM, suggests that there is an alternative way to the market’s heart

On September 16 1992. sterling1 was released from the exchange rate mechanism of the European monetary system. In the 'course of that turbulent day. the UK authorities briefly raised the base rate of ■interest from 10 to 15 per cent in a futile attempt to ward off devaluation. This -attempt failed. Once out of the ERM, interest rates fell progressively, to a low of 5.25 per cent in early 1994.

For the British economy, ■this was a turning point. As the chart shows, the exchange rate fell sharply at first but soon stabilised. Inflation remained subdued. Most important the economy proceeded to stage a strong recovery, with output expanding 23 per cent in the year to the third quarter of 1993 and then 4.9 per cent in the year to the 'third quarter of 1994. So strong a recovery could not have occurred without lower 'interest rates.

It is a happy story. It need not have been. The UK "might have been in the hands of the Internationa] Monetary Fund. If the IMF had run true to form it would have insisted on higher rates. It is even easy to guess its argument. The UK. the IMF staff would

have noted, was a country with a poor record on inflation and a long history of currency depreciation. The fiscal position was also deteriorating swiftly at that time. Now that the exchange rate anchor bad failed, the UK had to regain lost market confidence. So what would good Or Fund have proposed? Higher interest rates. With higher rates, the ! economy in collapse and the fiscal position worsening, the Lord knows what a mess the UK would have become.

A nightmare? Certainly, i Inconceivable? Hardly. The IMF’s canonical view on interest rates in a currency crisis is clear and brutally simple. By definition, it argues, the country’ is suffering a loss of confidence. It runs the risk of being caught in an inflation-devaluation death spiral. Moreover, the risk of such a spiral arises almost Irrespective of the country’s record. Indeed that point is explicitly made in the IMF’s assessment of its performance in the Asian crisis.* Higher real interest rates are. argues the IMF. a necessary condition for restoring lost confidence.

This view then is why the course of interest rates in Brazil, as shown in the

Two responses to devaluation: interest rates up m Brazil , . ,

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chart, has been so different from that in the UK. High interest rates were used, unsuccessfully, in the foolish (IMF and US- backed) attempt to sustain the Rears dollar peg. this having been Brazil's biggest error. But things grew worse, not better, following the floating of the Real on January 15. Short-term rates were then raised steadily, from 29 per cent in mid-January to around 39 per cent by the beginning of February. They then jumped to 45 per cent on March 4. The panic continued, all the same.

Do not forget that until the shock of the devaluation,

1 inflation had been low in Brazil, as the chart also shows. The real interest rates Brazil has suffered have been inconsistent with healthy economic growth. Now they will help generate recession. Hie latest Brazilian economic memorandum, accompany- ing the agreement with the IMF announced on Monday, suggests the economy will now contract by between 3.5 and 4 per cent this year.** Experience suggests that this preliminary assessment of the results of a devaluation-cum-higb- interest rate package will prove too optimistic. JJP.

Exchange rate vosas DSfl w index Jan i 1992 = 100

105 " I

Morgan already forecasts a contraction of 5.5 per cent of gross domestic product in 1999.

So Brazil, here comes recession, ft is horrifying to think this is the best the economics profession can come up with. For what the IMF is saying (to acclaim from market participants, central banks and ministries of finance around the world) is that the only way for a government to restore market confidence is to , demonstrate Its willingness , to inflict misery on itself and | its society. This Is. in short, i a masochist’s route to j credibility.

It would be unfair to say there is no defence for such a policy. Higher real interest ! rates do increase people's > willingness to hold a 1 currency, other things being equal. But note that the annualised rate of interest required to persuade people to hold a currency expected to depredate by 1 per cent a day is over 3,500 per cent, not 45 per cent. Note, above alL that the extent to which unsustainable policies can restore credibility is at the least open to question.

Why is a high interest rate policy unsustainable in Brazil? An obvious answer is that no government will find it easy to survive a depression. But there is a more direct reason: the fiscal position. It is almost universally agreed that the government's pre- devaluation policies lacked credibility for two reasons: the overvaluation of the Real and consequent external imbalance (with current account deficits running at around 4 per cent of GDP.) and the fiscal deficit.

Now just the fiscal deficit remains. But at around 50

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per cent of GDP. Brazil's public indebtedness is not particularly high. Moreover, the country has a primary fiscal surplus (balance, without interest payments), targeted at 3.1 per cent of GDP for this year. Thus Brazil's fiscal deficit of 8 per cent of GDP last year is entirely explained by interest payments. Its difficulty, however, is that the cost of 70 per cent of its domestic debt is determined by the floating interest rate. According to J.P. Morgan, at an interest rate of 40 per cent and an exchange rate of R$2 to the daDar, the costs of debt service become a bonifying 17 per cent of GDP.

So high interest rates are themselves the chief cause of the loss of confidence in domestic monetary stability that they are expected to cure. Worse, if the impact of high interest rates on the economy is bad enough, even the primary budget surplus is likely to disappear, as revenue contracts and spending on goods and services rises.

This then is a true vicious circle. Brazil is trying to restore confidence with policies that seem bound first to undermine it.

Are there less

economically damaging and more effective alternatives? The answer depends on what determines that elusive asset, confidence. If it is true that - for all but the biggest advanced economies - apparently unnecessary’ suffering is the only route to the market’s heart, then there can indeed be no orthodox alternative. Confronted by a market panic and lacking access to sufficient foreign currency resources to halt the downward currency spiral, the country’ has to embrace the pain. But is this really the best the world can recommend? And, if it is. bow long will it be able to sustain the orthodoxy it proclaims?

'IMF- Supported Programs in Indonesia. Korea and Thailand: a Preliminary Assessment, January J999: "Brazil Memorandum of Economic Policies. March f 1999. Both available via http:' •inne. inzf.org

Martin. Wolfa_ft.com

PERSONAL VIEW JAMES A. HARMON

Rule and prosper

Crisis-hit developing countries need to adopt an^esp^the rule of law if they want to attract private capital from abroad

fs

If there is one thing that we have learned from the financial crisis in the developing world it is that a global economy requires roles of law that are fair and predictable in every country.

Countless corporate bor- rowers from Manila to Moscow have been battered by the global crisis, leaving many insolvent and their foreign credi tors shell- shocked, not knowing whether they can recover assets in countries where the rule of law is absent. While the crisis has occasioned many nails for a “new finan- cial architecture" and for economic policy changes in emerging markets, the lack of private-sector confidence among foreign investors has been neglected.

Yet this issue is vitaL Pri- vate credit flows to the developing world have declined precipitously, from S200bn in 1966 to less than SZObn projected this year. There can be no real recov- ery until the fall is reversed. How can it be?

From our experience at the Export-Import Bank of the US. whose mission is to sustain jobs by supporting exports to these challenging markets, it is easy to under- stand why lenders are unlikely to make loans to companies that, if they default on their debts, will be protected by vague laws or cosy relationships with local courts.

If lenders and investors are so wary - and no one is rushing into crisis-affected countries these days - where will the capital come from to re-start growth? And if growth does not resume, wha: will happen to hun- dreds of millions of people whose living standards have plummeted in the las: year? We are net talking only abc-u: lost fortunes, but iost jobs and lost nope - includ- ing jobs in developed coun- tries.

Unlike the industrialised nations, where well- developec bankruptcy laws provide fair protection for creditors and borrowers

developin

conducive

ninp and predictable rule of law to restructure finan- cially threatened companies. All too often, creditors have no idea how they wiD fare, because they do not know the rules often cannot know how they will be implemented. We have attended credit meetings where no balance sheets or financial statements can be produced. ^

In Indonesia, courts refuse

While the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and others are working to help enact and enforce legal concepts so familiar in industrialised nations, this wi 11 take time - time that many developing countries do not have. In the mean- time, the IMF, export credit agencies, banks and other sources of private financing must develop incentives for these countries' govern-

to recognise the concept of ments to recognise their acceleration or that swap obligation to provide a trans-

obligations represent debt. The Philippines' Securities and Exchange Commission's jurisdiction over insolvency undermines protections afforded by Philippine bank- ruptcy law and principles of due process. In Thailand, some legislators who happen to be major shareholders of insolvent companies oppose enactment of laws to effec- tively enforce liens. In Rus- sia. legal claims are often simply not recognised by courts. After the crisis hit. new bankruptcy laws were adopted in Thailand and Indonesia, but hopes for improvement were short Jived.

In many emerging mar- kets, international creditors are also treated to the spec- tacle of preferential and fraudulent transfers of assets from insolvent compa- nies. Creditors lack effective legal recourse, and are unable to get debtors to co-operate in consensual or court-supervised restructur- ings based on full financial disclosure. This state of affairs, often resulting from cronyism benefiting wealthy, politically connected local businessmen, was easily overlooked during the go-go years of 8 to 10 per cent annual growth. But, when the chips were down - as they have bees since east Asian. Russian, and now Brazilian currency devalua- tions - this cronyism casts a long shadow of uncertainty over foreign lenders.

In short: Capitalism without the rule of law is capricious, dangerous

parent, equitable and pre- dictable legal infrastructure for creditors - and they need to make it work.

One approach would be for developing coun- tries to establish impartial financial restruct- uring boards, which would allow creditors to voice com- plaints publicly and seek redress. The IMF could make rescue packages contingent on the creation of such an office. International credi- tors, including export credit agencies backed by the power of their governments, can make their assistance dependent on governments exercising responsibility to insure fair solutions. The private sector also could make access to capital condi- tional on such reforms. This would help rebuild confi- dence in doing business in many emerging markets.

Internationally accepted standards and legal mecha- nisms for restructurings are essential for lenders, com- mercial and public, again to provide the massive flows of capita] that helped drive growth in many emerging markets in the early 1990s. Without the rule of law. it is unlikely that strong, sus- tained growth will resume. Without that growth, too many people in developing countries will be unable to resume their own progress from privation to prosperity.

The author is chairman and president, Export-Import Bank of the US

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Illogical to say non-African world should not intervene in Africa

From Mr John MtritL

Sir. Your leader “Africa's poison" (March 3) is, respect- fully. wrong to suggest that the non-African world can- not and should not intervene in a complex African prob- lem.

First. Africa's complex problems are in part due to European politics in tbe 19th century. In this regard, it

would be incongruous to advocate that European countries have no responsi- bility in Africa. Second, it is somewhat perplexing that, while African problems require uniquely African solutions. Middle Eastern problems do not require uniquely Middle Eastern solutions. If logic be logic, and every region must solve

its own problems, then per- haps the US should with- draw from its important role in eastern Europe. Because, after all. eastern Europeans need an eastern European solution to their problems.

John Mbiti,

414 W 44 Street IE,

New York,

NY 10036, US

German company accounts favour caution

i From Mr Martin E. Simons.

Sir, Ralph Atkins and Uta I Hamischfeger are to be con- gratulated on their article about Oskar Lafoutaine. Ger- many's finance minister, and his tax plans, and the table showing international corpo- ration tax rates ("Lafontaine fights a rearguard action to defend tax ambitions". March 3). Germany heads the table with rates of between 44 and 57 per cent with the lower range appli- cable to profit distributors. The UK rate of 31 per cent is one of the lowest.

Those of us who have been examining German pub-

lished accounts have long known that a principal aim is to produce a cautious bal- ance sheet. That is facili- tated by tax-allowed heavy depreciation charges, auto- matic stock and foreign trade debtor write-downs (with tbe latter representing a form of export subsidy). As a consequence, what would seem to be harsh rates of corporation tax are applied to declared lower profits than is customary in the UK.

Over-prudent accounting tends to create secret reserves year by year, thereby checking the growth of equity reserves, which in

turn jacks up current return on published equity.

Apparent better equity returns linked with tucking away profits can lead to over-investment, which is also encouraged because too many financial analysts ignore some huge in-house pension reserves that are. in effect, loans to the business and should be included with debt when calculating lever- age.

Martin E. Simons,

24 Granard Avenue,

Putney,

London SW15 6BJ.

UK

Japanese money supply and deflation

From Mr Divyang Shah.

Sir. You are certainly right to point out the three ele- ments in tbe Japanese equa- tion: lax monetary and fiscal policy coupled with financial sector reform (“Money for nothing", March 4». How- ever. it is questionable whether an expansion in money supply (via monetisa- tion) will be sufficient to pre- vent the deflation spiral that has its roots In structural deficiencies.

Monetisation will help increase the lag time of the economy adjusting to excess capacity and excess employ- ment levels. From a theoreti- cal standpoint, any inflation target requires a stable money multiplier, velocity of money and nominal gross domestic product. Given that

the credit creation system has broken down, and uncer- tainty surrounding private demand, it is even more dif- ficult to aim for an inflation target, let alone a money supply target.

The creation of liquidity without dealing with the financial sector troubles is likely to result in much of this liquidity moving out of Japan and accelerating the pace at which the yen depre- ciates. While this would help Japan in tbe medium-term, its impact will be limited as long as the financial sector remains dogged by bad debts on its balance sheets. A more palatable alternative is the purchase of bonds by the Bank of Japan in order to use the proceeds to remove the bad debts from the bal-

ance sheets Of the financial sector.

However, dealing with the liquidity issue is easier than undertaking a wholesale restructuring of the banking sector in order to make it more profitable - to which one of the necessary condi- tions is to reduce the capital of the hanking sector.

At present Japan seems unable to take such a bold step and thus the risk is of another stop-gap measure that leaves restructuring a distant prospect for the financial sector.

Divyang Shah, global strategist,

IDEA.

Lincoln House,

296 High Holboru,

London WClV 7JH, UK

Motor industry is changing

From Ms Niki Leahy.

Sir. John Kay’s comments on the globalisation and scale economies of the motor industry (“Where size tent everything". March 3) misses several points relating to the changing cost and price structure of vehicle manu- facture.

Consolidation within the industry is now leading to a “levelling out" of market share between a larger num- ber of dominant producers - as can be seen in both Euro- pean Union and North Amer- ican markets. In future, global distribution networks, rather than global volume capacity, will determine competitive advantage and commercial survival.

Profitability is no longer a result of economies of scale in global production and sourcing but dependant on maximising output to the point optimum with product differentiation, for supplying global market segments, in which no producer occupies a dominant position.

Production break-even can be achieved at lower output volume, provided it is suffi- cient to recover the addi- tional. specific costs that relate to the particular sup- ply decision. Prices are cal- culated to maximise total contribution to profit accord- ing to percentage market share.

Fragmented global mar- kets will not end the domi- nation of mega-volume pro- ducers, but they will end the higb-volume capacity and economies of scale advan- tages that have previously been used to offset the industry’s high fixed opera- tional costs.

In future, controlling sales and administration costs, and reducing costs occurring over the customer lifecycle, will be of far greater significance.

Nfld Leahy.

Dim View,

Howbury Street,

Bedford. UK

Number One Southwark Bridge, London SE1 9HL

Wa tre keen encouago teri-srs from readers wtAJwiAa, Lot era may be feued to +44 171 4173 5938 feet fax io ejrdk lerters.&iKjpWLcotn Prikswd ier«r; are atso ai3*sb<9 on the FT web ste. mp:'/www.FT.oan Translation may be aua&xxe ^ laKrs *rmen r Ute ran RTsmarranal languages. Fan 0171 873 5838. Letters ahnJd be typed and not haxi when.

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Wednesday March 10 1999

Nato balancing act in the East

History wfll be made this Fridav when the Atlantic alliance takes in three new members - Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary - even though they are far from the Atlantic. The signing cere- mony at the Truman Library in Independence. Missouri, lifts what one Polish minister called the geopolitical curse on his country of being on the wrong side of the east-west divide in 1945. for which Hungary and Czechoslovakia also had to suffer Soviet military oppression in 1956 and 1968 when they sought to renounce or dilute their member- ' ship of the Warsaw Pact.

So this trio of central European countries has cause for celebra- tion at “coming home”, and Nato's existing 16 members have reason for satisfaction at the expansion of their alliance, the longest-lasting military pact in modem times. Yet there is a deceptive ease about Nato enlargement that carries risks.

The process of negotiating entry into Nato is nothing like as complicated or costly as the east- ward enlargement which the European Union is also pursuing and which will take much longer. From start to finish, the incorpo- ration of the Poles, the Czechs and Hungarians into Nato has taken less than two years, at a cost to Nato of less than $2bn. Nato has committed itself to keeping its door open to still more members. But there are plenty of potential pitfalls down this road. The biggest of these would be to alienate Russia when it may soon pass into the hands of someone less sympathetic to the west than Boris Yeltsin. Tak- ing Nato right to the borders of Russia will not increase western security if it also fuels Russian resentment. Moscow may one day again be strong enough to threaten the west.

Baltic membership

Nine more countries are knock- ing at Nato's door. None of them will get an invitation to join from next month's Nato summit in Washington. But this is partly because Nato allies disagree on

the direction of any expansion. France and Italy have put prior- ity on the south - Romania and Slovenia. Other Nato states are cooler on enlargement, but their arms industry is keen on new markets. This is particularly true of the US, which has also made commitments to the Baltic states. New Nato members do not want to be left on the alliance's edge; so Poland, too. backs Baltic mem- bership. Such a prospect brings an allergic reaction from Russia, which says it is flatly opposed to any former part of the Soviet Union joining Nato.

Closer alignment

It is time to take a harder look at the criteria for Nato member- ship. First, countries should not be encouraged to join Nato long before the EU simply because it is organisationally easier for them to do so. Closer alignment of Nato and EU membership would also make sense if the Eli is to take on a defence role, and avoid putting other countries into the category of Turkey, in Nato but outside the EU.

Second, Nato has to weigh its own strategic interest in enlarge- ment. It is increasingly asking its members for the political will and military capacity to take part in crisis management and peace- keeping outside the Nato area. Potential memberj should be judged by whether they would contribute to these new tasks.

Finally, it would be wise to blur the distinction a bit more between Nato's "ins” and “outs". Obviously, some distinction must remain, if the collective rights and responsibilities of full mem- bership is to mean anything. But Nato has run a very successful Partnership for Peace with many outside countries for the past few years, and the Washington sum- mit is expected to offer applicant countries a new Membership Action Programme to help them get even closer to the alliance.

This might not lessen coun- tries' appetite to become full members of Nato. but it should I minimise the creation of new dividing lines across Europe. j

The smiling face of Iran

President Khatami has launched a charm offensive in Europe to attract foreign investment into his oil-rich but capital-starved country, say David Gardner and Robin Allen

D’Alema’s

dilemmas

Tbe determination of Romano Prodi, Italy's former prime minis- ter. to ensure his country's entry into European economic and monetary union was impressive. Yet doubts remained about how Italy, with its heavy burden of government debt, would cope within a single currency. And already, the country is facing problems in its attempts to keep up with the euro-zone pace.

Output growth in Italy last year was the slowest of all the euro-zone economies, at L4 per cent; and most forecasters are predicting that growth this year will not be much higher. There are a number of reasons for this. The Asian crisis hit Italy much harder than many other Euro- pean. countries. The withdrawal of the government’s incentives for car purchase is another fac- tor. And the contractionary effects of the pre-Emu budget squeeze are still being felt.

Yet Italy's politicians must surely have hoped that the mas- sive monetary policy boost pro- vided by a fall in short-term interest rates from 9 per cent in 1996 to 3 per cent now would kickstart growth again - as it hag rinnp, for example, in Spain. Why is this not happening?

One explanation is that Italy has traditionally been a nation of savers. A large fail in interest rates means that these savers will get a lower income from their investments. The contrac- tionary effect this has could eas- ily outweigh the impact from cheaper borrowing rates.

The counter-argument is that as interest rates have come down, so inflation has fallen, meaning that real returns have not fallen by much. However, the psychological effect of lower nominal rates could still be strong.

Italian business

A more important point is that lower rates should still have a powerful effect on Italian busi- ness, which has a relatively high level of indebtedness, much or it short-term. In addition, Italy s household savings ratio has been

falling steadily for some time and is now not greatly out of line with the rest of continental Europe. Perhaps the effects of monetary policy are weaker and take longer to be felt in Italy than, say, in the UK; but there is no reason to think that policy would be ineffective.

Structural problems

The alternative explanation for tbe puzzle of why falling interest rates have not boasted growth is that Italy’s structural problems are constraining the economy’s, ability to expand. True, change is afoot in Italy’s opaque corporate sector, with Olivetti’s bid for Telecom Italia likely to prove a. watershed.

But in his five months in power. Massimo D'Alema, the prime minister, has failed even to make a start on tackling other obstacles to economic progress. Italy's labour market remains one of the most rigid in Europe. Greater investment in infrastruc- ture is needed, particularly in the south. And Italy’s pension sys- tem absorbs a huge 15 per cent of gross domestic product without reform, it will be extremely diffi- cult to bring down the overall level of taxation. _

This lack of further structural .fiscal reform, together with slug- gish output growth, means that Italy's progress in meeting its budget targets could be slow - as the European Commission warned only last month. Although the targets for the gen- eral government deficit are being met, this is chiefly because of the effect of lower interest rates on the government finances. The primary surplus (which excludes debt payments) actually slipped back significantly in 1998 from the previous year.

The margin for manoeuvre afforded by low interest rates means that there is an opportu- nity for the government to make real progress on structural reform. Unfortunately, all the indications are that Mr D'Ale- ma’s government will be too weak to take action. It is tune for him to prove his critics wrong.

Best of the UK Budget, page 8

Mohammad Khatami.

the smiling race of Iran, arrived in Italy yesterday, fresh from winning what was in effect a referendum on his attempts to reform the Islamist revolution in recent elections to town and city councils.

This is the first state visit' to a western country by a leader of the Islamic Republic which in 1979 replaced a pro- western mon- archy with a fearsome theocracy. It is Mr Khatami's first shot in a charm offensive designed to enhance his and his country’s international stature - and above all to break free from continuing US attempts to isolate Iran's oil- rich but capital-starved economy.

Italy is a modest enough begin- ning for such a campaign. It was chosen because Lamberto Dini. foreign minister , and Romano Prodi. then prime minister, were the first western leaders to visit Tehran last year and demon- strate some understanding of Iran's evolution. But Iranian and western officials say the engag- ing reformer's ambition should not be underestimated.

“The Iranians see Italy as a bridge to a wider dialogue with the European Union which they expect to consolidate when Mr Khatami follows up his talks in Rome with official visits next month to France and possibly Germany." says one senior Euro- pean diplomat in Tehran.

There are powerful domestic reasons why Mr Khatami should be seeking dialogue with Europe. Respect abroad is translatable into increased authority at home. Despite his popularity, Mr Kha- tami is constrained by hardliners who use religious dogma to defend the power and wealth they have built up since the revo- lution. This is doubly so in a sys- tem like Iran's, of competing but fluid power centres, where power flows to where power is perceived to lie. As the leading pro-reform daily Salam observed on Sunday: “The success of tbe reformers in rhe local polls will pave the way for Khatami to carry forward his foreign policy: it will help him to act with greater authority.”

There are three connected objectives of Mr Khatami's cam- paign. They are: to win western endorsement of his efforts to cre- ate accountable government under the rule of law; to foster international acceptance of Iran as a regional power with legiti- mate security interests in the Middle East and central Asia: and to begin enticing the foreign investment Iran desperately needs to employ its fast-growing population, two-thirds of whom are under 25.

The reformist president, elected by a landslide nearly two years ago. enjoys unquestionable legitimacy among the country's young population. They support Mr Khatami with a fervour bor- dering on adulation.

The municipal contests of two weeks ago showed that his reform coalition is intact and on the march. Still incomplete results indicate it won around 70 per cent of an seats, sweeping the capital and Isfahan, which rivals Tehran in political ferment.

These were the first municipal polls since the revolution. In fact, they were the first local elections in over 2J500 years of Persian his- tory. More to the point, they mean that supporters of Mr Kha- tami now have every chance of thrashing the theocrats In next year's elections to the Moults or parliament - currently a bastion

of resistance to reform - and winning his re-election in 2001.

If by then he has managed to acquire what one senior Euro- pean official calls “real interna- tional standing”, it wfll be very difficult for his opponents to bring him down.

As Mr Dini put it this week: “A new course has been set by Presi- dent Khatami and he needs and deserves our encouragement He should feel it is not our Intention to isolate Iran or to beep him in a religious ghetto."

The difficulty faced by Iran's hardliners is not only the sheer scale of the two defeats Mr Kha- tami has inflicted on them. It is that the evolutionary reform offered by the president legitim- ises the continuity of the Islamic Republic. But while this confers enormous advantage on the reformers, Mr Khatami also faces difficulties of his own.

To begin with, Islamist theo- crats still hold many of the coun- try’s power levers. It is not Mr Khatami but Iran's supreme leader - Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who succeeded tbe revolution's late leader. Ayatollah Khomenei - who controls foreign and defence policy, the intelligence services and judiciary, and about 80 per cent of Iran's economy through revolutionary “founda- tions” or bony ads.

The shadowy masters of these power centres have every inter- est in opposing rapprochement

with the west and the open trade and investment which would fol- low. because that would end their control of a rickety but lucra- tively rigged economy.

Evidence that the interests of the theocrats are at least as much material as spiritual Is that they resorted late last year to the assassination of half a dozen reformist intellectuals tbe moment the government started

‘Iran is not willing to open its books. The US would be among its inquisitors, and Iran will not countenance that1

trying to audit the bonyads, states-within-the-state which monopolise the provision of some 5,000 goods and services. Put another way. for every American like Professor Samuel Hunting- ton of Harvard University, who posits a “clash of civilisations" between the Christian west and militant Islam, there is a well-heeled mullah egging him on.

hi its stead, Mr Khatami has proposed a “dialogue of civilisa- tions", which he will begin with

the Vatican tomorrow at an unprecedented meeting with Pope John Paul n. At home, though theocrats fear Mr Khata- mi’s dialogue will end clerical rule and privilege.

Tbe west, for its part, is anx- ious about Tehran's apparent attempts to develop nuclear weapons capability with Russian assistance - as Massimo D'A- lema. Italy’s prime minister, has said be will make clear this week. It is that fear which is fuel- ling the drive for bigger and bet- ter sanctions against Iran in the US Congress, few of whose mem- bers see any electoral profit in a dialogue with Tehran of any kind.

But with Israel's unacknow- ledged nuclear arsenal to its west and India's and Pakistan’s new nuclear capability to its east, Iran feels li has the right to defend itself. It could push ahead with its weapons programmes unless it feels the west is prepared for genuine co-operation on security in Iran's unstable surroundings.

The nuclear issue and US sanc- tions on Iran greatly complicate Mr Khatami government’s efforts to reform the economy.

And it Is not clear that Iran can delay structural reforms for much longer. The currency is sliding, the budget deficit is soar- ing. and unemployment and Inflation are both acute. Iran needs to attract around tlObn a year In foreign investment to

OBSERVER

Bonino breaks for the border

The large newspaper advertisements earlier this week left no one in any doubt that Emma Bonino, the European Commissioner responsible for fisheries, consumer policy and humanitarian aid, had launched her campaign to become president of Italy.

But Observer remains puzzled The Commission has just unveiled new codes of conduct for its members which frown upon activities that might represent a conflict of interest A Brussels official is swift to dear things up, insisting Bonino isn't really a candidate.

It’s all quite simple: because the president of Italy is chosen behind the closed doors of Rome's party headquarters, the “non-candidates" do not go out and campaign, “ff there is no election campaign, then there is no conflict between this non-candidature and the code of conduct” a Commission official explains.

As a member of the marginal Radical Party Mrs Bonino stands little chance of being reappointed to her seat in Brussels. So it’s only fair she should be allowed to look for a new job.

Barking mad

Those spending watchdogs at the United Nations seem to have

sniffed out a scandal. Namely - the vexed question of whether the UN paid more for a security dog than an under-secretaiy- general.

A Costa Rican envoy has apparently raised the issue before the main UN budget committee. It's said the dog in question is costing SI 50 .DOT a year, while the impoverished under- seer etary-g en era! takes home a mere $140,000.

But all those officials thinking of demanding a pay rise should take heart Observer's hounds have been on the trail, and have discovered the canine fee may include a handier. Even so, paying one man and his dog that much really does take the biscuit

Board games

There’s safety In numbers at Credit Suisse. Switzerland’s second biggest bank has just set up not one but two new advisory boards to akl its own star-studded group board.

Helmut Kohl, the forma1 . German Chancellor, Telecom Italia’s Franco Bemabe and Bayer’s Manfred Schneider are some of the heavyweight figures invited on to Credit Suisse's 12-strong international advisory board. The new Swiss advisory board is bigger still, with 18 members who wfll no doubt be wined and dined in return for raising "issues of concern”.

It’s an odd move since

International advisory boards have fallen out of favour as banks have become more cost-conscious. Swiss Bank Corporation scrapped its council of Internationa] advisers a couple of years ago because it was worried about conflicts of interest with its investment bank.

SAfr Group, parent of Switzerland's national airline, has just set up an advisory board, but at the same time halved the size of its own 19-strong board. Credit Suisse, on the other hand, wfll continue to have 18 directors on its main board.

Thafs far too many for effective decision-making. But then cynics might argue that its Rainer Gut, Credit Suisse's well-connected chakman, and noth© board, who has always called the shots.

Kopper bottom

Former Deutsche Bank chairman Hiimar Kopper once made a bit of a gaffe by describing his bank’s property-related losses as “peanuts’. He's capitalised on the remark ever since. For instance, he recently featured in a Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung advert reading the paper while perched atop a railway wagon full of peanuts in Georgia. USA.

A reference to him on the internet even refers to his peanut crack as well as giving details of his blood pressure.

But the latter may be set to rise. Kopper, wearing another of

his many corporate hats as

chairman of the supervisory board of DaimlerChrysler, is being furiously accused by other supervisory board members of keeping secret details of new contracts entitling main board members to big pay increases and generous stock options, in that context, talk of peanuts just Isn't on.

Signing off

At last! The finger of fate has given foreigners living In Japan a helping hand. Foreigners setting up home In Japan have long been required to submit their fingerprints for registration purposes. But now, after 47 years, the government has agreed to revise the rule - and substitute signatures for fingerprints.

The rule has been a bone of contention in Japan as foreigners see it as an infringement of human rights. So much so that in 1992, legislation was revised to stop fingerprinting for those with permanent residency status.

The most recent decision wfll abolish the requirement for all foreigners, regardless of residency staffs, and is expected to affect some 600,000 residents.

But there are stffl some ruffled feathers as many foreigners are obliged to carry alien registration cards at all times. Evidently, foreigners' human rights, Aka Rome, weren’t built In a day.

return to stable annual growth of about 5 per cent. It also needs to reschedule its foreign debt, most of which is short-term.

Of Iran's $23bn foreign debt, $ll.9bn is short-term. This means that Iran must often resort to refinancing obligations under unfavourable terms, particularly now that oil revenues, which comprise SO per cent of hard- currency earnings, are low.

"The scale of this foreign debt is not the problem," according to one senior European diplomat. "Compared with Turkey's JlOObn or more and the scale of Iran's

resources, its debt could easily be entirely rescheduled and put on a viable basis, if only Iran would take its problem to tbe Paris Club of OECD governments. But Iran is not willing to open Its books. The US would be among its inquisitors, and Iran will not countenance such a prospect"

Moreover. Mr Khatami's cam- paign to present the smiling face of Iran contrasts strongly, busi- nessmen and bankers in Tehran say. with the fearsome bureau- cracy that awaits foreign Inves- tors. Last month, for instance, the Majlis passed a budget law which highlights the country’s schizophrenia about foreign, investment. On the one hand the law, effective from the beginning of the 1999-2000 fiscal year starting on March 21, held out for the first time the prospect of 49 per cent foreign equity partner- ship in Iran's refineries. But the same budget law proposes to slap an income tax of 5&80 per cent on the salaries of all foreign resi- dents, plus a corporate tax of 30 per cent, payable by foreign com- panies, on the collective salary of all their foreign employees.

The dysfunctionality of the law betrays Iran's preoccupation with security. Its ostensible purpose is to force foreign companies into three “free trade zones” on islands in the Gull. “That way," one senior European diplomat says. “Iran’s bureaucracy and security apparatus will have for- eign businessmen where they can be more easily kept under sur- veillance."

Even if foreign businessmen find a way round the “free zone" hurdle, they are met by a bureau- cratic jungle of officials who are appointed, according to Ali Rash- id!. an economist, for “reasons of nepotism and political favouri- tism rather than on merit”.

Bankers complain that simply to get the central bank to con- firm buyer letters of credit, a pri- vate sector client has to go through no fewer than 23 proce- dures involving three different government ministries and five separate departments of the cen- tral bank.

These include a honeycomb of offices ranging from the secretar- iat of the foreign exchange mar- ket supervision committee, to the foreign exchange policies and regulations department, the international finance depart- ment, the general credit agree- ments department, the foreign exchange control department, and the foreign debt department

Even under Mr Khatami, there- fore, Iran is not for the faint- hearted. Widely known across his country as “the laughing son of the prophet [Mohammed]", in the 18 months since he took office he has set Iran on a course of politi- cal devolution and reform.

But there is little to smile about in the obstacles he still feces. To surmount them, be is now seeking support in the west.

100 years ago

A Come-down For The Dorado Of North America After all the accounts of the fabulous wealth of the Ktondyke, it is strange to read that money is remarkably tight in Dawson City. Yet this is the statement made by the special correspondent of the Toronto Globe, who adds that 10 per cent, per month is quite a common rate of interest, and that 15 per cent is being freely offered, just because five delay in the mails has prevented remittances from reaching the town. We would have imagined that a few of the nuggets about which so much has been written might have saved the situation. It Is a sad come-down for the capital of the new El Dorado to have to depend on outside sources for its petty cash.

50 years ago

U.S. Gold Imports Washington, March 9. South Africa furnished foe whole of America's gold imports of 90,283 Troy ounces in the week ended February 16, Department of Commerce statistics disclose. Exports of foe metal were 29,500 Troy ounces, alt to Poland and Danzig. I

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14

PRINTERS FAX MACHINES

FINANCIAL TIMES

SOTHEBY'S

International Real tv

+44 (0) 171 598 1600

' 1

WEDNESDAY MARCH 10 1999

THE LEX COLUMN

Coughing up

RJR Nabisco has certainly extracted a puffed-up price for its international tobacco operations. The $8bn Japan Tobacco is paying equates to 15 times earnings before interest, tax and depreda- tion - nearly twice what BAT paid for Rothmans two months ago and far higher than the valuation accorded quoted rivals like Imperial or Gall ah er. Such largesse can only be explained by the Japanese group's desperation to expand overseas as it loses market share at home.

This coup should see ofT corporate raider Carl Icahn, who has built a 7.7 per cent stake. It cuts RJR's net debt to S3bn and paves the way for a separation of the remaining US tobacco and Nabisco food businesses. RJR's 80.6 per cent stake in separately listed Nabisco Is worth nearly $30 a share. On a cautious 12-13 times earnings, the domestic tobacco unit adds another $13-514-

There is a caveat: the existing holding company, which will end up with just the Nabisco stake following the demerger, will retain its exposure to tobacco litiga- tion claims. Nevertheless, with RJR's shares at just over $30, there is substan- tial value to release.

It might also boost rivals, by creating a pure, quoted US tobacco company as a comparator. At present, the US tobacco operations of Philip Morris and BAT are valued at close to zero by the market.

Sony

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warrants and savings shareholders would be able to convert into voting shares. The twist is that - because each shareholder would probably be given only three war- rants but 10 would be needed for conver- sion - the savings shareholders would have to buy the remaining seven from ordinary investors.

This mechanism could kill two birds with one stone. First, ordinary sharehold- ers would receive cash - perhaps as much as €1 a share. Second, the savers would be enfranchised. That would make Telecom an even bigger mouthful for Olivetti to swallow, as it is not currently bidding for the savers. The only caveat is that this scheme may be too clever by half.

How do you enfranchise non-voting shareholders without making voting shareholders unhappy? Telecom Italia's financiers have devised a clever answer. The simple approach of giving the savings shareholders ordinary shares on a one-to-one basis is unattractive. The sav- ers would be more than happy with such a plan - after all. their shares currently trade at €5.80 compared with €9.70 for the ordinary shares. But ordinary sharehold- ers might feel they were cheated if their voting privileges were diluted without any quid pro quo. And there is no point in antagonising the voting shareholders, as they will determine whether Telecom keeps its independence in the face of Oli- vetti's onslaught

Hence a scheme being considered by Telecom for giving all shareholders con- version warrants. Collect enough of these

Sony

Sony’s restructuring announcement verged at times on the opaque. A “unified dispersed" management model does not exactly trip off the tongue. But it would be wrong to underestimate the courage of what is being proposed.

The company's overhaul is twofold. First are its efforts to improve profitabil- ity in its electronics operation, which has been hit hard by the strength of the yen and savage price erosion, especially in the Japanese market. Certainly the compa- ny’s third quarter results raised fears over its operating profitability Cor the fourth quarter, despite the great strength of the Sony brand. The impact of cost-cutting on profitability is tricky to quantify. Reduc- ing headcount by about 10 per cent by the end of March 2003 sounds chunky, but, as

UK Budget

This was a pre-election Budget. And probably the first of three at that, given that the election is unlikely to be held until 2001 As ever Gordon Brown, the chancellor, has been clever politically. The tax cuts announced yesterday kick in modestly, the net tax give-away is only £1.1 bn in 1999-2000. But by 2001-2002, the probable election year, the give-away has increased to £3.6bn.

Mr Brown presumably bopes voters will have forgotten the abolition of various tax privileges when they enter the polling booth, but will still be grateful for the lower income tax rates.

Despite the tax cuts, the government's net borrowing still manages to fall a touch in each of the next three years. How come? Reduced interest payments on government debt, a lower contingency reserve and accounting adjustments are the answer. Together they cut govern- ment spending by an average of £5bn a year, more than enough to pay for the lower rates of income tax.

These are the sort of conjuring tricks UK chancellors love. Investors, though, will not be fooled by Mr Brown's arithme- tic. The fiscal boost may be fairly small beer. But the bond market has already sold off in expectation that the Bank of England wifi now be less keen on cutting interest rates. A sober assessment is par- ticularly appropriate if one thinks Mr Brown win cast more goodies in the vot- ers' direction in his next two Budgets.

CONTENTS

News

Features

Companies & Finance

European News ..... American News International News . feta- Pacific Nows . World Trade News

UK News

Weather

23 ErStortals

_ 5 Letters

4 Hanagement/Tedmology -

... 6 Observer

... 4 Arts & fete Guide...- .......

8.9 Analysis

. 14 Crossword Puzzle

...... 12,13

12

10

13

11

........ 12.13

22

totemational Company News 16,17

International capital Markets _.. 20

FT.com

HNANCIAJL 1 IMES

Markets

DffGctoiy of online services

British adventurer David Hemptaman-Aclarns preparing to leave Eureka in the Arctic yesterday to attempt the first solo and unsupported expedition to the north geomagnetic pole. Picture: PA

Bond futures and options

20

Short term interest rates

21

20

..... 21

.... 21

FT/SSP-A World hdlces

_... 29

.... IB

WOrld stock mariats reports

32

Wttld stock market Bstings

29

London share service

26.Z7

FTSE Actuaries UK share indices ..

28

.._ 28

Dhrfdenos announced, UK _....

IB

Managed funds service

23-25

22

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28

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FT WEATHER GUIDE

Europe today

Western regions wHl be milder but heavy rain wfll move Into western France and the north and west of the Iberian peninsula Germany and the Low Countries will have sporadic rain but central regions should see some sunshine, ft wifi also be sunny across south-east Europe and die Mediterranean, although a few showers are likely In Turkey. Snow In the north-east wflt turn to nafri as milder air moves In from the west Scandi- navia will stay cold with some heavy snow showers and rain only in south.

five-day forecast

Heavy rain will spread farther east across die Iberian peninsula and western Europe but central and eastern areas will be mostly dry with some sunshine. Most of the Mediterranean will be sunny and warm. Scandinavia and the far north-east will have more snow.

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TRTT

with NEC’s recent restructuring announcement, it is unclear how many of these jobs cuts would have come anyway through natural wastage. Reducing Sony’s manufacturing facilities from 70 to 55 may turn out to be the more significant mea- sure.

Second, and possibly more radical, is Sony's shift In management and culture. The company stressed the importance of profitability. More outside directors and greater transparency in its bead office operations should put pressure on head- quarters personnel to explain how they add value to the sprawling group. Compe- tition is hotting up between Japan's elec- tronics conglomerates keen to demon- strate their shareholder-friendly credentials.

Eisuke Sakaki tiara, Japan's high profile and controversial financial diplomat, is expected to leave his post as vice-minister of finance for International affairs later this year.

Any reshuffle at the ministry will be closely watched in international financial markets, in the two years that Mr Sakakibara. 57. has held the post, he has earned a controversial reputation for making comments that attempt to influence markets. He has become known as “Mr Yen" for his reputed influence over the foreign exchange markets.

Mr Sakakibara has also been more forthright in expressing his views to foreign bankers than most Japanese bureaucrats, partly because of his experience in the US as an academic and economist.

Although some foreign observers have welcomed his openness, it has sparked criticism in the ministry, and some bureaucrats sought to replace him last year. Officials say he is likely to be replaced by his low-profile deputy. Haruhiko Kuroda, 51

The finance ministry insists that it has taken no binding decisions about the reshuffle. However, its rules for internal job rotation mean that Mr Sakakibara will almost cer- tainly leave, unless Keizo Obuchi. Japan's prime minister, specifically intervenes.

In recent days Mr Sakakibara and the ministry have indicated rh2t they are preparing for a reshuffle. For example, the ministry has recently asked Takatoshi Ito. an eco- nomics professor, to become Mr Sak- akibara'5 assistant

“Mr Sakakibara is more articulate and closer to the hedge funds than many of bis predecessors." says Peter Morgan, economist at HSBC Securities.

The markets have seen Mr Sakaki- bara as a supporter of a “strong yen" policy, although he has modified this stance in recent weeks. As one US hedge fund manager says: "If he goes there is a chance that people could assume that there wjli be a weaker yen."

Mr Kuroda shares most of Mr Sak- akibara’s views on the currency and the markets. However, he Is a career bureaucrat who has maintained a low profile. A reshuffle could there- fore lead to a change in the minis- try’s market style.

Yoshito Sakakibara (no relation), economist at Goldman Sachs, said:

i.W-HlrrSiey.- '£'•

Eisuke Sakafctoara: forthright in expressing Ms views to foreign bankers

“Mr Sakakibara 's departure could reduce the influence that Japanese policymakers are likely to have over the foreign exchange markets."

However, some officials suspect that the planned recruitment of Mr Ito. 48, marks an attempt to main- tain the ministry's contacts with for- eign bankers and US officials.

Mr Ito is a close ally of Mr Sakaki- bara. and has also spent many years working in the US. including a stint at the International Monetary Fund. Mr Ito also has links with Lawrence Summers, US deputy Treasury secre- tary. since both men studied at grad- uate school in Harvard.

Mr Sakakibara has not yet indi- cated what post, if any, he may assume next

In the past, retirees from that posi- tion have tended to perform “amaku- dan", a descent from- heaven, into a prestige job in the financial sector.

Toyoo Gy oh ten, for example, a for- mer vice-minister, is senior adviser, at Hank of Tokyo-MitsublshL But in, the wake of scandals over exces- sively close links between financial institutions and the ministry, this practice has been outlawed.

Mr Sakakibara has recently told colleagues that , he is considering returning to academic life, possibly at a think-tank or by founding his own research Institute. He also has indicated that be would like to work in Australia, partly because he is. fond of scuba-diving.

Between now and 2015. expens predict that a 2-K Mb growth in seat miles and essential fleet replacement will trigger a SI .25 trillion market lor new aircraft. They'll take flight with the help of Dowty. a world leader in specialised hydraulics. - and actuation systems, tuthine engine components, aircraft structures, tubular systems and advanced propellers.

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15

INSIDE

Bonds overshadow equities

A renewed burst of selling in bond markets overshadowed trading in equities, reversing ini- teigaffism Europe and sparidng early profit-taking in the US. A round of unexpectedly solid European economic data was the main focus for bond investors. Page 32

PDVSA’s oil dream evaporates

The mood at Petroieos de Venezuela, the state oil company, has been gloomy in recent weeks. The collapse in global oil prices has triggered a series of draconian budget cuts that have plunged the economy into deep recession, while increased intervention by the government of President Hugo Ch4vez (left) threatens to down- size the company further. Page 17

GM reveals expansion plan

General Motors announced ambitious plans to expand its European sales and market share while recognising demand and pricing in most countries would deteriorate this year. Page 16

Venezuelan coffee industry perks up

As Venezuela's oil industry, the principal source of foreign exchange, is hit by record low petrol prices and production cuts, the Caribbean nation is rediscovering what was once its lead- ing cash crop - coffee. Page 22

Yields on Japanese bonds rise

Yields on long-term Japanese government bonds rose sharply after a warning from the Bank of Japan governor that he expected long-term interest rates to rise again soon. Government officials’ suggestions of an immi- nent tightening of bond trading regulations also damped the bond market. Page 20

Whispers warn of China devaluation

China raised interest rates yesterday for local accounts held in US and Hong Kong dollars, sparking rumours that the renminbi might be devalued. Page 21

Nikkei jumps back above 15,000

Shares in Tokyo dosed above 15,000 for the first time in more than three months, buoyed by a surge in the high-tech sector and news of Sony’s restructuring. Page 32

s'.v- *■. '■■■ ^ ->■ i; •»

China urged to boost gold reserves

China should triple the ratio of gold in the for- eign exchange reserves, which have become over-invested in US dollars, according to a recommendation by a senior official at the national gold bureau. The allocation of China's $145bn foreign exchange reserves, the second largest in the world, has the power to sway currency markets. Page 22

COMPANIES IN THIS ISSUE

-Ahold

15 HSBC Holdings

4

Albright A Wilson

18 Julius Baer

16

Alcan

16 Korea Rrst

4

Alcatel Space

4 LVMH

17

Andersen Consulting

17 Lockheed Martin

2A

Audi

16 Lycos

16

BASF

16 Matra Marconi

4

BAT Industries

15,17 Mecfison

4

BBA

18 Microsoft

4

Bayer

16 Mitsubishi Electric

4

Berkshire Hathaway

16 NEC

4

Boeing

2 Olivetti

15,16

British Aerospace

2 Omron

16

CMGI

16 Opel

16

Caradon

18 Orange Comms

16

DaimChrys Aerospace

2 PDVSA

17

'OafmferChryster

4 Pasco

4

Dassault

2 Ralso

17

De Beers

17 Rhodla

18

.Diamond Multimedia

4 Roche

16

JXke Energy

16 Rothmans Int'l

15

Eagle Star

17 Saab

2.16

Endesa ChBe

16 Senior Engineering

18

Enersls

16 Seoulbank

4

Rat

16 Sony

17

Fortum

16 Telecom Rate

15,16

Frankfin Resources

16 Thomson CSF

4

GEC Marconi

2 UBS

16

Geico

16 USA Networks

16

General Motors

16 Unilever

17

Genera! Re

16 VauxhaH

16

Gucci

17 Volkswagen

IS

HJ Heinz « Zurich Fin. Sendees

CROSSWORD, Pag® 22

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New York supermarket chain sold for $1.7bn

By Gordon Cramb In Zaandam

Ahold. the Dutch supermarkets group, yesterday built on its US presence with a Sl.TSbn agreement to buy Pathmark Stores, which oper- ates 132 outlets in and around New York.

The deal comes barely four months after Ahold completed the $2.8bn takeover of the Maryland-based Giant Food. Pathmark has a 12 per cent market share in metropolitan New York and a reach which stretches to New Jersey and Pennsylvania. It had sales of some $3.7bn last year.

This compares with the Sl&2bn in revenues achieved by Ahold’s existing US operations. Its presence in the US market was a main contrib- utor to 1998 net profits of the Dutch group, also announced yesterday. These rose 29 per cent to F11.21bn (SS20m), on revenues ahead 15 per cent to FlSKfon.

Ahold is to pay S250m for SMG-Q Holdings - the vehicle for a leveraged buy-out of Pathmark carried out in the mid-1980s - and its SMGH sub- sidiary. making a $38.25 per share tender offer for SGMH’s publicly traded preferred shares.

The rest of the purchase price reflects the assumption of §1.5bn in Pathmark debt. “Pathmark is a well-run com- pany but under-invested because of a highly leveraged balance sheet." said Cees vac der Hoeven, Ahold president.

The Dutch group will pay for the deal from Its existing credit facilities, redeeming Pathmark’s debt, it added: “Part of the debt restructuring may be funded with newly issued share capital."

Last September, Ahold issued FI 2.73bn in new equity as part of an offering, which also included convertible notes, to fund the purchase of Giant Food. It said at the time that its next takeover would not require a share issue.

Michael Meurs, chief finan- cial officer, said that the Path- mark deal would not be com- pleted until the fourth quarter, and a decision on raising capi- tal would be made only after that. '1 think that nn»an« we will have kept our promise." he said.

Ahold shares closed 2J3 per cent lower in Amsterdam at €32.55 ($35.42) although the group forecast an increase, excluding the effect of cur- rency fluctuations, of 15-20 per cent in earnings per share for this year.

It said the acquisition would have no impact on earnings per share this year or next and be “substantially enhancing" after that. For the first three quarters of 1996, Pathmark had operating earnings of nearly S97m. indicating an operating . margin of 3.5 per cent

Mr van der Hoeven said the group continued to seek expan- sion in southern Europe, but bigger markets to the north had not brought acquisition candidates at the right price.

Ricardo Zonta, part of the British American Racing team, at the Australian Grand Prix last week. British American Tobacco claimed its underlying performance was positive despite a tafl in profit. Picture; John Marsh

BAT still upbeat despite 16% decline in profits

By David Blackwell in London

British American Tobacco, which next week publishes details of its proposed £5J28bn ($S-5bn) takeover of Rothmans Internationa], yesterday insisted that its underlying performance was positive in spite of a 16 per cent fall in profits.

The shares - which shot up to 625p on news of the take- over plan in January - fell 27%p to 545'Ap. Analysts suggested that investors were worried by the group’s predic- tion that first-quarter operat- ing profits would be down on the comparable 1997 period, and by the prospect of further litigation in the US.

Pre-tax profits for the 12 months to December 31. exclu-

ding the financial services arm that was demerged last autumn, fell from £875m to £738m. But the figures were clouded by exceptional, including the payment of a total of £6l3m in US tobacco litigation settlements and the receipt of a £74m tax benefit in Brazil

At the operating level, prof- its were down 3 per cent to £1.55bn on sales of £17.4bn (£17£bn). But the group said that operating profits edged ahead by 1 per cent to £l.6bn at constant 1997 exchange rates after allowing for restructuring charges.

Martin Broughton, chair- man, said it would have been all too easy for management to take its eye off the ball last year given the extent of corpo-

rate activity. But the improve- ment in operating profits at constant exchange rates was in line with its promise when the takeover of Rothmans was announced - “a resilient per- formance” in the difficult trad- ing conditions that were con- tinuing around the world.

These were most evident in the Asia-Pacific region, where operating profits tumbled 41 per cent to £l82m.

Mr Broughton said the set- tlement of the state Medicaid claims against the industry in the US should have provided greater certainty for both shareholders and employees of the group. But further claims had shaken investor confi- dence.

Zurich adds a charge, Page 17

Telecom Italia considers new bid defence

By Hugo Dixon in London

Telecom Italia is considering enfranchising its non-voting savings shareholders as part of its defence against Olivetti's €53bn ($57bn) hostile bid. The move, which is likely to be dis- cussed at today's board meet- ing. could make Telecom a much harder target for Olivetti to swallow. Olivetti’s already highly leveraged bid is only pitched at Telecom’s ordinari-

shareholders. The savings shares account for 29 per cent of Telecom’s share capital. If they converted to ordinary shares, the cost of mounting a bid would increase by more than 40 per cent.

The savings shares trade at a discount of more than 40 per cent to the ordinary shares. The discount has widened sharply since Olivetti launched its bid. This is in part because of fears that

savings investors will be forced to take non-voting stock in Tecnost, Olivetti's acquisi- tion vehicle, if its bid succeeds.

The innovative scheme being considered by Telecom would probably involve issu- ing three conversion warrants to ordinary' and savings share- holders. Anybody accumulat- ing 10 of these warrants would be able to convert a savings share into an ordinary one. This would mean that savings

investors wishing to convert would have to buy an extra seven warrants in the market from ordinary shareholders.

Telecom is thought to be attracted to this particular mechanism for enfranchising savings shares because it believes it would appeal to both classes of investor and help ward off Olivetti’s bid. Ordinary investors would receive cash in exchange for sharing their voting privileges.

And though savings sharehold- ers would have to part with cash, the big discount they currently suffer would vanish.

Before Telecom can announce its scheme, it needs the approval of its board and Consob. the stock market regu- latory body. This means an announcement is unlikely after today's board meeting.

Lex, Page 14

Telecom Italia defences. Page 16

European markets to harmonise trading

By Vincent Boland in London

A single stock market to trade

the shares of Europe’s top 300

companies moved a step closer yesterday when the London and Frankfurt stock exchanges unveiled plans to harmonise the way shares are traded on their order books.

The exchanges have pro- posed “core market hours" of 9am to 5.30pm Central Euro- pean time (08.00 to 1630 GMT), an unlimited Tnarimnm order size on their trading books, and a 90-day limit on how long an unfulfilled limit order can remain on the books.

The proposals are due to come in to operation in the third quarter of this year. The move towards a “super stock exchange”, which investors say they want after the arrival of the euro in January, were unveiled last July.

Separately, the London pvrhangp has begun talking to users about closing and intra- day auctions on Sets, its elec- tronic order book, in addition to its opening auction. It has again raised the possibility of extending Sets to FTSE 250 stocks and a possible move to a shorter settlement cycle than the existing one, where trades are settled five days after being executed (T+5).

Frankfurt's Xetra electronic order book already holds auc- tions several times a day and settles at T+2. The exchanges are understood to be aiming for a uniform T+l settlement cycle, considered the interna- tional norm.

On January’ 4, London and Frankfurt repatriated trading in each other’s listed securities and offered members direct access to the two markets. Nei- ther development was seen as dramatic since non-domestic trading volume was relatively small, while most large brok- ing firms were already mem- bers of both the London and Frankfurt markets.

The changes to trading hours mean the Sets order book will open one hour ear- lier, while the Xetra order book will open and close 30 minutes later.

The change to maximum order sizes will not affect Frankfurt, which has no size limit on a trade, while London sets a limit of 20 times the “normal market size”. The change to order duration will see London extend its limit order validity period from 31 days, while Frankfurt will cut its period from up to one year.

Merrill’s brave new world

First the UK. now the world.

In 1997 Mercury Asset Management formally published for the first time Its views on investment strategy for UK pension fund clients.

Now. as Merrill Lynch Mercury Asset Management, it is expected by its new bosses to acquire global institutional business, in four base currencies anyway, including dollars, yen and euro, as well as sterling.

One response is the fatter Investment Strategy & Structure, Global Edition. It represents a sturdy defence of the large, multi-purpose investment house in an age of specialists.

Mercury now runs about S240bn worldwide, bat its core UK pension fund business is under pressure because of poor results against benchmarks.

Can it extend the transition from running UK balanced pension funds to becoming a global multi-asset manager?

Some changes are obvious enough. For its global audience MAM has added

more asset classes.

Hedge binds, for instance, are noted for their high returns but there are warnings about survivor bias in the performance figures and the hedge funds’ lack of resources compared with those of “a large conventional manager" .

Low correlation with an expensive stock market might appear a current advantage but investors might wind up buying “noisy cash".

The passage of time can also bring new wisdom. In 1997

there was enthusiasm about emerging market equities because of the sheer growth generated by these dynamic economies. But they are now seen as only “often" dynamic, with risks more evident than the rewards.

Mercury's basic concept remains one of defining “safe harbour" assets (often bonds) that match an institution’s long-term liabilities bat which usually give only low returns.'

In practice, higher returning assets can be substituted as long as clients have a long enough time horizon to accept the short-term risks: a 20 per cent standard deviation of annual returns an equities, for

instance.

Hie promotion of equities is less enthusiastic than in the previous edition, though. This may reflect the difference in the global client base, so much more bond-oriented than UK pension funds which typically still have equity exposures of more than 70 per cent

There are also one or two hints that Mercury is worried about the level of future real returns on equities, although it quotes a consensus expectation of between 5 per cent and 7 per cent.

The competitive challenges to Mercury are clear from the document, which in itself could be seen as a response to the powerful consultants trying to grab control of the central investment decision-making processes and lock money managers away in tiny specialist boxes.

The “balanced versus

specialist" debate, observes ! MAM, is really about tbe relative ability of investment consultants and investment managers to assemble a talented team.

A multi-asset manager, it adds, can add value outside narrow specialist briefs, and for many institutions can provide “a cost effective solution that does not expose the investor to undue risk".

As for the passive fund managers that are now soaking up business. Mercury points out that although index-tracking may be cheaper, it is not more prudent.

An active manager with an active risk of, say 2.5 per cent, may well add only a tiny increment - perhaps 0.2 per cent - to the overall market risk.

The risk/return ratio is therefore potentially high- But it has to admit that the average active manager will probably underperform in the long run.

Finally, those benchmarks. Historical returns provide only a very weak guide to future performance, MAM says, even if they are nevertheless widely used.

Concepts such as “tracking error" may be useful for checking manager styles but they often have little to do with client ftnflnirial risk.

Yet in a tough world, a couple of bad years for performance can do serious damage, even to the biggest and most lavishly resourced fund management house.

Wherever... Whoever... Whatever...

Sun is dot-comming Britain, Europe, the World.

Call 01252 399364 or visit us at www.sun.co.uk We're the dot in .Com. What can we .com for you?

Sun

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FINANCIAL TIMES WEDNESDAY MARCH 10 !9»

COMPANIES & FINANCE:

LATIN AMERICA US INVESTORS SUPPORT SPANISH POWER GROUP’S ATTEMPT TO TAKE CONTROL OF ^HILE^ jEt^CTRiCITY DISTRIBUTOR

Endesa gets second bite at Enersis

NEWS DIGEST

ALUMINIUM

By Tom Burns In Madrid

Endesa, Spain’s leading power group, will have a second opportunity later this month to gain outright con- trol of Enersis of Chile, its main investment target in Latin America, thanks to key support from US institu- tions that are shareholders of the Santiago-based elec- tricity distributor.

An attempt by tbe Spanish group to change Enersis’

bylaws in order to lift its stake in the utility from 32 per cent to 64 per cent was rejected two weeks ago when an extraordinary gen- eral meeting vote fell just one percentage point short of the 75 per cent majority required to change Enersis' statutes.

But in a surprise break- through that has enabled Endesa to renew its takeover strategy. Franklin Resources, a US fund that

owns 1-5 per cent of Enersis’ share capita] in the form of American Depositary Receipts traded on the New York Stock Exchange, dis- closed to regulatory authori- ties **>at its vote in favour of a bylaw change was not properly accounted for in last month's shareholder meeting.

Endesa’s $l.45bn bid for a further 32 per cent of Enersis was backed by eight Chilean pension funds, known as

AFPs. which control nearly 30 per cent of the utility between them. However, it apparently failed to gain suf- ficient support among US funds wbo hold Enersis ADRs.

The Enersis board yester- day approved a call, tabled by two of the AFPs repre- senting 10 per cent of the utility's equity, for a vote on the issue again at a second shareholder meeting for March 29.

Endesa believes, on the basis of tbe Franklin Resources disclosure and on evidence of the voting inten- tions of other funds holding Enersis ADRs. that it now has sufficient backing to clinch a statutory change and implement its equity acquisition. Shareholder endorsement for Endesa tak- ing a controlling stake wil] put Enersis at the centre of an ambitious investment drive by the Spanish group

in Latin .America. An imme- diate consequence will be to block plans by Enersis to seii its 25 per cent stake in the biggest domestic genera- te:-. which is called Endesa Chile but which has no rela- tionship with the Spanish group.

Spain’s Endesa sad vigor- ously opposed this disposal. The Spanish group plans to cooperate closely with Duke Energy, tbe US utilities group.

Renault set to buy Romanian carmaker Dacia

By Haig Simonian in Geneva

Renault should next month announce it has reached a milestone in its ambitions to become a more international vehicles group with the acquisition of Dacia, Roman- ia's biggest carmaker.

The deal, expected to be closed on April 13, would give Renault control of the fourth largest vehicles group in central and eastern Europe after Volkswagen’s Skoda subsidiary in the Czech Republic and the Fiat and Daewoo operations in Poland.

Dacia, which used to have a licence agreement with Renault, made more than

100,000 vehicles last year.

Louis Schweitzer. Ren- ault's chairman, said he saw “no major outstanding issues" to prevent the take- over.

However, he was still waiting for the Romanian parliament to pass new laws granting big foreign inves- tors significant tax and regu- latory concessions.

Mr Schweitzer has enthu- siastically backed tbe idea of Renault developing a cheaper, second brand to spearhead expansion in new markets.

The idea that high qual- ity cars can only be manu- factured in western Europe is dead." he said.

However, be would not say how much Renault would be paying for Dacia, which is modestly profitable. Ana- lysts have speculated on a price of about $30m.

Mr Schweitzer confirmed that Renault remained inter- ested in buying into Nissan Motor, the embattled Japa- nese carmaker, despite grow- ing signs that DaimlerChrys- Ier may be about to strike a deal

He declined to give any indication of tbe state of Renault's negotiations, or whether he thought Renault could beat the much more established negotiating posi- tion held by the German-US group.

'*1400

Alcan shares fall after ^ warning over low prices

Shares in Alcan fed 4 per cent yesterday after the - r- 1 Canadian aluminium producer warned that its fret-quarter. profits would be tower than expected due to prevailing low 7. prices of primary metal, weak European markets for fobri; i . cated products and the recession in Brazil. ;

The company said its first-quarter net income would be > 50-60 per cent below the 30 US cents per share - before special gains - recorded in. foe final quarter of 1398; Anari; r-- iysts had expected earnings of 31 US cents. Net fncdrhe ; was USS1 17m. or 50 cents per share, in foe first quarter- .> of 1998.

The company was foe second aluminium producer ter.; ' issue a profit warning for the first quarter. Reynolds Akh/ ' " . minium said last week it would break even in the first 'Svee-T . months of 1999, blaming low prices and thQjjevafuarfion.of - Brazil’s currency. Alcan said total shipments for fabricated -■ products during the quarter were In line with the first quar- ter last year. Alcan shares were down C$1 .70 at C$36 to - morning trading yesterday. Scott Morrison, TorontoV..

■> •* '

FOOD .. -

Heinz is ‘on target’ ; ; t

HJ Heinz said yesterday It was on track to meet expecta- tions for foe y ear. despite an anticipated reduction to -i fourth-quarter operating income. The company reported v f third-quarter earnings per share of 60 cents before, excep- ^ ttonai items, against 55 cents last time.

Heinz said earnings excluded a restructuring charge for ' and costs related to the consolidation of its Ore-tda Foods * and Weight Watchers Gourmet Foods units. Inducfing :

these charges, third -quarter earnings were 33 cents @0 « cents). Sales in the third quarter rose from $2.24bn to ' •• . - i ' S228bn. AFX, Pittsburgh \ ’*

Sporting chance: Bentley unveita its 16-cyOnder ‘Hunaudieres' model at the motor show m Geneva *= energy

GM reveals expansion plan Fiat to issue €lbn loan

By Hafg Simonian in Geneva

General Motors yesterday announced ambitious plans to expand its European sales and- market share 'While rec- ognising demand and pricing in most countries would deteriorate this year.

Michael Bums, president of GM Europe, said be expec- ted European car registra- tions to drop by between 500.000 and 600.000 compared with 1998.

However. GM was confi-

dent that Opel/Vauxhall and Saab, its European brands, would improve their shares through new models and improved quality and reli- ability.

Mr Bums admitted that Opel had suffered from image problems, caused partly by inconsistencies in GM’s European strategy.

However, he said new models, such as the Zafira people carrier due in May and the latest Astra small family car, would attract

new and previous owners.

Audi, the executive cars subsidiary of tbe Volkswa- gen group, confirmed the gloomier outlook among many carmakers for Europe this year.

However, it said it hoped new models would allow it to raise sales despite more difficult circumstances in many countries. Audi said its European market share in the first two months of this year had fallen slightly compared with 1998.

By Paid Betts in MBan

Fiat, the Italian motor manufacturer, yesterday said it would issue a €lbn ($91 8m ) five-year loan soon to take advantage of favour- able market conditions.

But Paolo Fresco, chair- man. did not disclose how the group intended to use the new funds, except to say “we have many ways of using them".

The company’s Fiat Finance and Trade arm has

given the mandate for the loan to Mediobanca. Deut- sche Bank and Morgan Stan- ley Dean Witter.

Mr Fresco, speaking at the company’s centenary cele- brations. would not discuss Fiat's merger.

Asked if it was interested in Volvo’s truck operations or Scania - the Scandina- vian truck manufacturer - Mr Fresco said "never say never*.

Giovanni Agneli). Fiat patriarch and honorary’

Bayer, BASF show resilience

Roche chairman to retire

By Uta Handschfeger in Frankfurt

Bayer and BASF, the German chemical and phar- maceutical makers, yester- day defied forecasts of disas- trous 1998 earnings and proved relatively resilient against the negative effects from the crises in Asia and Latin America.

But despite satisfactory earnings, which may cause some revision of analysts’ most pessimistic expecta- tions for 1999, observers said it was too early to give the “all-clear’’ signal for Ger- many's chemicals industry.

BASF, based in Ludwig- shafen, warned of more trou- ble to come. “The chemical industry and BASF are expecting 1999 to be a more difficult year, as a result of sustained pressure on prices," it said.

But despite falling 1998 sales - BASF sales were down 3.1 per cent to DM54.07bn from DM55.78bn <€27-6bn, SSO.lbn from €28Sbn. $31bn) and Bayer’s sales fell 0.2 per cent to DM54.9bn from DM55bn - both companies increased their profits. BASF's net profit rose 2.7 per cent to DM3.32bn from DM3 .24 bn. and Bayer’s net profit was up 7 S per cent at DM3-2bn from DM2.9bn in 1997. Both companies’ sales were below analysts' expectations, while profits exceeded estimates.

Compared with Bayer, whose activities are almost evenly divided between chemicals and pharmaceuti- cals. BASF earns far more money from chemicals and related products. As a result it is more sensitive to pres- sure on selling prices as well as lower petrochemical mar- gins. which have been foil- ing along with oil prices.

“Both results are signs that the chemical industry as a whole was seen in too bad a light.” said JQrgen Trojan, at Deutsche Ge&os- senschaftszentrale in Frank- furt Last week, the chemical employers association reported that 1998 industry sales fell 1.6 per cent to DM227.4bn, due particularly to lower exports. For the first three months of 1999 the association forecast fur- ther falls.

Bayer, based in Lever- kusen, sent a clear signal to investors that It perceived its stock as undervalued. It said it would ask sharehold- ers to approve a share buy- l back of up to 10 per cent of its shares. “It wants to [show] that its shares are too cheap and that buying its own stock is the best invest- ment it can make," said Mr Trojan. Bayer plans to issue convertible bonds and bond warrants to pay for this.

BASF shares closed down 40 pfennigs at DM31.40, while Bayer closed down 20 pfennigs at DM32.8Q.

By WBfisn Hafl in Zixich

Fritz Gerber, probably Switzerland’s most success- fill business leader of his generation, plans to step down as chairman of Roche in 2001 after more than 20 years and hand over the chairmanship to Franz Humer, Roche's chief execu- tive.

Mr Gerber’s decision to announce his retirement ends months of speculation about the succession at Roche, which is still con- trolled by the same families that founded the business in 1896. Mr Gerber. 69, a law- yer, is credited with reviving the fortunes of Roche, which

was struggling in the 1970s after foiling to find a replace- ment for Valium, the world's first block-buster drug.

Roche yesterday- announced a 3 per cent rise in 1998 net income, to SFT4.39tm (S3bn). and plans to increase its dividend by 5 per cent to SFr87 a share. Operating profit rose 21 per cent to SFr4J5bn on a 31 per cent rise in sales to SFr24.7bn. Growth in net income was held back by a 31 per cent drop in non-oper- ating income to SFrl.OBbn.

Mr Gerber, unlike most of Roche's previous chairmen, did not come from the phar- maceutical industry. He arrived at Roche in 1978

after 20 years at the Zurich Insurance company. He con- tinued to combine the role of chairman of Zurich, as well as chairman and chief execu- tive of Roche, until 1995.

Under Mr Gerber. Roche cut costs, cancelled ill- prepared diversification moves, and refocused its research effort.

Over the past decade, its earnings have grown at a compound annual growth rate of 25 per cent and it bas built one of tbe best new drug pipelines in the indus- try. Analysts are particu- larly excited by the pros- pects of Xenical. Roche's new anti-obesity pill, and its anti-influenza drug.

chairman, said that the group was “still too small" in the current global market and that it was "keeping its eyes open to all opportunities".

Investor, the Swedish investment group, said yes- terday ii was still ready to discuss the future of Scania, the truck and bus maker, with potential buyers, send- ing Scania shares to a high of SKrt!i?.5 a 2 per cent gain. The shares settled at Skr215.5.

Merger doubts follow Lycos rift

By Richard Waters in New York

Buffett warns on margins

By Tracy Corrigan in New York

Berkshire Hathaway, the investment vehicle run by the legendary investor War- ren Buffett, yesterday reported continued growth last year, in its direct insur- ance operation Getco, but warned that margins will “almost certainly decrease" in 1999. However, investors and Buffett watchers keen to discover whether Mr Buffett has beaten the performance of Standard & Poor’s 500 index for the 18th consecu- tive year will have to wait until Saturday, when the company's annual report will be posted on the inter- net

Yesterday, Berkshire reported net earnings of $2.8bn in 1998, up from $1.9bn. The earnings were made up of $l.28bn in earn- ings from operations and $1.55bn in realised invest- ment gains. But the year-end net asset value, which is the most closely watched indica- tor of tbe investment group's performance, will be dis- closed in the annual report However, at the end of the third quarter, the net asset value was 2.6 per cent down on tbe year, while the S&P 500 was up 5 per cent lead- ing analysts to speculate that the company might end its strong run of beating the Index. However, the Decem-

ber acquisition of General Re, the US Insurance group which is now Berkshire's largest operating company, is expected to have boosted net asset value.

Geico’s underwriting profit margin of 6.7 per cent last year was “well above" tar- get Berkshire said. General Re was included in Berk- shire’s earnings for only 10 days of last year.

In addition to the revela- tions of the annual report, shareholders can look for- ward to hearing Mr Buffett's words of wisdom when they gather for the ritualistic fes- tivities of the annual meet- ing in Omaha. Nebraska, starting an May 1.

Telecom Italia bolsters defences

By Paul Betts in MBan

Telecom Italia yesterday was further sharpening its defen- sive strategy against Oli- vetti's €53bn (S57.7bn) hos- tile bid expected to be unveiled today after the boards of Telecom Italia and its 60 per cent cellular sub- sidiary Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) meet.

TFM yesterday said its board would not only exam- ine today its 1998 results but also call a shareholders meeting. Financial analysts in Milan said this suggested that Telecom Italia and TIM were likely to announce finally their merger plan as part of the former’s new industrial strategy but also as a defence against its much smaller Italian tele- communications rival.

Carlo Camerana, a board member of Ifil, the Agnelli-

Fiat family holding company and influential Telecom Italia shareholder, did not exclude the possibility or Telecom Italia acquiring directly TIM shares.

Franco Bernabe, Telecom Italia chief executive, had already announced his inten- tion to merge Telecom Italia and TIM. said Mr Camerana. “If it then did not turn out to be a merger but the acquisi- tion of TIM shares, why not," he added.

Other defensive actions under consideration were a possible share buy back, tbe conversion of Telecom Italia non-voting savings shares into ordinary voting shares, and the payment of a special dividend, banking sources said.

These defences, as well as Mr Be mate's new Industrial strategy, would be backed by the €20bn syndicated loan

which three of Telecom Ital- ia’s banking advisers are seeking to put into place. The three advisers are Credit Suisse First Boston. J.P. Morgan and Italy's Imi.

TI was also understood to be seeking a preliminary credit assessment on its jumbo loan that would bet- ter the A- rating given to Olivetti by Standard & Poor’s when It evaluated Oli- vetti's hostile bid.

Bankers yesterday expec- ted Telecom Italia to com- mand a slightly better rating than its rivaL It had about €9bn of debt at tbe end of last June, while TIM was vir- tually debt free. A merger of Telecom Italia and TIM would enhance tbe rating, bankers said.

Innocenzo Cipolletta, director general of Co nf In- dus tria, Italy's employers confederation, noted yester-

day that indebtedness was also a means of accelerating and strengthening corporate restructuring.

Standard Life Investments, the fund management arm of Europe’s largest mutual insurer, yesterday gave a further boost to Telecom Italia by saying Mr Bernabe now had the support of investors holding more than 20 per cent of Telecom Italia shares.

Leon de Jerez, head of European equities at Stan- dard Life, said that 12 per cent of Telecom Italia inves- tors were “definitely com- mitted" adding “hut we have more than 20 per cent who are firmly opposed to the bid".

The role of institutional investors is expected to be critical in the ultimate out- come of tbe takeover battle.

Telecom Italia also con-

firmed yesterday the resig- nation of Luigi Montella. chief executive of its engi- neering subsidiary Slrti. Mr Bernabe bas already indi- cated that Sirtl was one of the assets Telecom Kalia planned to dispose of in its new business strategy.

In a separate development. OP Computers, which took over Olivetti’s former loss- making personal computer business, yesterday asked to be placed in temporary receivership. Olivetti sold the company in 1997 to Pied- mont International con- trolled by Edward Gottes- mann. the UK-based American financier.

Olivetti holds about 20 per cent of Piedmont and said it was ready to cancel L88bn i€45.5ra, $50 m) of credits Owed to U as well as provide financial support to OP Com paters' management.

The rift between Lycos and its biggest shareholder wid- ened yesterday, casting fresh doubt on the internet media company's plan to merge with Barry Diller’s USA Networks.

The last significant inter- net “portal" company to remain independent of a larger media group, Lycos’ shares jumped by 18 per cent on the news, reflecting a belief that it would be forced l to renegotiate tbe merger or seek an alternative partner.

Tbe rift with CMG Infor- mation Services - which owns 18.5 per cent of tbe internet company - came to the fore as David WetherelL chief executive of CMGI. resigned from the Lycos board.

Mr Wetherell was a foun- ding board member of Lycos when it was created in i995. One of the most successful early investors in internet start-ups, be said he had quit to give himself freedom to pursue better terms for the merger.

The dispute over the value the deal placed on Lycos broke out almost as it was announced and has become a focal point for the debate over the high value Wall Street has put on internet stocks recently.

Mr Diller - one or the most successful US network television executives before branching into home shop- ping - has argued that most internet companies are over- valued. He said last week he retained “an abiding, if tem- porarily unfashionable, belief in arithmetic", and predicted that share prices would eventually fall.

However, while supporting the strategy behind the merger with USA Networks. Mr Wetherell bas com- plained that it short-changes Lycos shareholders. As a board member he voted for the deal in February, but then withdrew his support as tbe stock market marked down the value of Lycos' stock.

Before yesterday's rebound. Lycos ’s shares had lost nearly 40 per cent of their value since the merger was announced. They were trading at S99£ midday yes- terday in New York, up S15£ on the day but still below the $137 they reached In early Februarv.

Fortum falls on low prices

Fortum, one of the largest energy groups in the Nordic region, yesterday blamed tower-than-expected full-year profits on a sharp decline in electricity and crude oil prices. Tbe Finnish company, created by last year's merger of Neste and imatran Volma (IVO), saw its maiden 1 2-month profits fall to FM2-21 bn (€371 m, $403m)_from FM4.9bn on reduced sales of FM50.5bn, compared with proforma turnover of FM60bn in 1997.

Heikld Marttinen, chief executive, warned that Fortum's results would be little improved this year it foe market prices for oil and electricity remained at current levels. Th e newly-merged group still saw underlying operating prof- its fall from FM4.41bn to FM3.54bn. Mr Marttinen said foil- ing o<( prices and excess supplies of hydroelectric power . had undermined foe results. The figures were also held back by a FM202m charge for Fortum’s liability for nuclear waste disposal.

Earnings per share fell from FM2.70 to FM1.62. A divi- dend of FM0.75 has been proposed. In Helsinki, Fortum shares fell 10 cents to €4.70. Tkn Burt, Stockholm

ELECTBICAL MACHiNERY , ' ' "

Strong yen hits Omron exports

Omron, foe Japanese electrical machinery maker, yester- day issued a profit warning and announced a restructuring plan- Omron, following in the footsteps of Japan’s elec- tronic giants such as NEC aid Toshiba, said weak globed demand and a strong yen hurt exports of its control com- ponents. The company said it would cut 2,000 jobs to 1. Iowa headcount from 18.800 to 16,800 by March 2002 and reduce foe number of directors from 30 to less "than v - 10 by July.

The group revised down sales forecast from Y570bn . - ($4.7bn) to Y550bn for the year ending March 31 , 1999 . against last yea’s sales of Y611.8bn. Omron lowered esti- mated pre-tax profit before exceptional from Y14bn tor,- Y4.5bn, down 89 per cent The group said it expected to post a net profit of Y2bn against the earlier forecast of -'rM Y6.7bn and last year's profit of Y18.7bn profit The stock dosed down Y12 at Y1288. Alexandra Nusbaum, Tokyo '

MOBILE PHONES

Orange to make Hungary bid J,

Orange Communications, the UK-based mobile phone operator in which Hutchison Whampoa has a large stake, . > is planning to extend its overseas presence with a bid far Hungary’s third mobile licence. It has formed an alliance ' with Callahan Associates International of the US, that wffl - be known as foe Orange Hungaria Consortium, to consider the bid. ' »

The company yesterday refused to indicate the likely value of any bid it might make. There could be substantial - competition for foe third license with British Tetecommuni- - cations, Vodafone/Airtouch and Mannesmann of Germany. - among foe likely contestants. Hungary was the first east European country to license a mobile network.

Alan Cane

BANKING

UBS sells Julius Baer stake

UBS has sold its 6.6 per cent voting stake in Jufiu&Baer, Switzerland’s biggest independent private bank, for SFr123m ($84m). The family-controlled bank has bought back the 139,973 registered shares from UBS which has owned the stake for many years.

UBS had 1 1 per cent of Julius Baer's registered shares . and following foe transaction foe family shareholder pool " will now control all the registered shares which represent over 50 per cent of the voting stock. UBS has been sefflng off its non-core interests since last year’s merger with Swiss Bank Corporation. It raised SFrl .9bn from foe safe of Banca della Svizzera Italians and is expected to raise around SFr2.8bn from foe sale of its 25 per cent stake In Swiss Life. William HafL Zurich

CAR AND TRUCK MAKING

Saab talks confirmed

General Motors, the largest car and truck maker, yesterday* confirmed that it intended to discuss foe acquisition of foe » outstanding 50 per cent interest in Sweden’s Rnah Auto- ! mobile this year. GM bought its existing half-share Irr Saab from Investor, the Swedish Investment group controlled by- the Wallenberg family, for $600m in 1 989. and has man- i agement control.

Under a refinancing deal in 1996, GM received an option : to acquire the other 50 per cent between July 1999 and January 2000. If the two parties do not reach agreement on this. Investor has the right to sell half its remaining 1 1 stake in Saab to GM In the year 2000. -

Confirmation that GM will consider raising its stake, given at the Geneva Motor Show, by Robert Hendry, tha . . GM executive who heads Saab. Nikki TaR, Chicago L

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financial times

Wednesday march id 1999

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COMPANIES & FINANCE: INTERNATIONAL

RIVAL BAISIO TAKEN TO COURT OVER SIMILARITY OF PRODUCT NAMES

Unilever acts on cholesterol reducing spread

Du bihi> «■— A

By John Wffiman,

Consumer Industitas Editor

The race to bring the first cholesterol-reducing spread to European consumers intensified yesterday when one of the two companies involved took the other to court for trademark infringe- ment.

Unilever’s Dutch subsid- iary started summary pro- ceedings in the district court in The Hague against the makers of Benecol, a spread already on sale in Finland, alleging the name was too

similar to its own Becel brand.

The Anglo-Dutcb con- sumer group, which hopes to launch its own "Flora pro-

activ" cholesterol-busting spread in Europe within a few weeks, also says plans to market Benecol as healthy for hearts would damage the positioning of Becel.

Unilever has built Becel into the market leader in Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg over 35 years with a marketing campaign to associate it with heart health.

Benecol is produced by Raisio, the Finnish food and chemicals group, and mar- keted outside Finland by McNeil Consumer Health- care, a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson, the US group.

Both companies are racing to introduce their cholester- ol-busting spreads in Europe and North America (where Unilever's will be called Take Control!.

The two spreads both reduce "bad" cholesterol in the bloodstream, with studies showing the risk of coronary heart disease

reduced by up to a fifth.

Benecol was launched in Finland in 1995, where it sells at six times the price of conventional spreads. It needs no approval to be sold in other EU countries, unlike Unilever's product which has to be approved under novel foods legislation intro- duced by Brussels after Benecol was launched.

The legal case comes as McNeil Is close to launching Benecol in several EU mar- kets and could delay its sale in the Benelux countries. Unilever's Flora pro-activ

has been approved by the Dutch novel foods regulator, but has yet to clear the 60-day period during which

regulators from other EU countries can object.

In the US, Unilever’s Take Control is believed to he

ahead of Benecol in being approved by the Food and Drug Administration. The two products are being investigated under a new procedure that requires them to demonstrate they are "generally recognised as safe" (GRAS).

Both companies were

invited to submit to the GRAS procedure, which should take no more than 90 days to complete, at the end of last year. Approval under this procedure would not allow the spreads to be pro- moted as healthy without submitting to the much lon- ger process for vetting health claims.

McNeil believes Benecol will find a ready market despite such restrictions, with widespread awareness among consumers and physi- cians of the benefits of reducing cholesterol.

Japan wakes up late to potential of the internet

Sony's surprise revamp is an attempt to scale down manufacturing and join the multimedia age, says Michiyo Nakamoto

Norio.Ohga, Sony chairman (toft), and Nobuyuki Idd, announcing that the group vriH cut 17,000 jobs AP

De Beers earnings halve to $617m

By Victor MaHet In Johannesburg

De Beers, the South African group that controls most of the world diamond market, yesterday announced a halv- ing of its total net profit last year to $617m from S1.23bn in 1997, but said there had been tentative signs of improvement in the market since the start of this year.

Nicky Oppenheimer. chair- man, described 1998 as “a very difficult year" in which sales by the De Beers- controlled Central Selling Organisation fell 28 per cent to $3.34bn.

The final combined divi- dend was 52.3 cents, and total dividends per linked unit fell 22 per cent in 1998 to 80.2 cents from 102.8 cents. The figures combine the results of Johannesburg- based De Beers Consolidated Mines and De Beets Cente- nary AG of Switzerland.

Mr Oppenheimer called it “a prudent dividend’ given the harsh trading conditions, but said dividend cover had fallen anyway.

The results were at the lower end of analysts’ pre- dictions, and De Beers shares in Johannesburg fell R6 or 5.6 per cent to R100.

Diamond stocks were $A82bn at December 31. up 8 per cent from the previous year, but Faddy Kell, finance director, said this and other figures had been affected by the consolidation of C SO companies. De Beers, part of the Anglo American con- glomerate, has been simpli- fying its cross-holdings with other members of the group as Anglo prepares to move its headquarters and pri- mary stock exchange listing to London in May.

The diamond market dete- riorated in the second half of last year but the mood had improved in 1999 after a strong Christmas in the US. De Beers said. Stocks of rough diamonds in cutting centres had been run down as a result of De Beers’ sales restriction over the past 18 months and because of reduced supplies from war- torn Angola and the Demo- cratic Republic of Congo.

De Beers, however is main- taining a cautious stance and says it will be hard to boost overall sales signifi- cantly this year unless retail markets in Japan and south- east Asia improve.

Sony's surprise announcement is a wake-up call for Japan, which has let the explosive growth in internet -based computer services largely pass it by.

The plan Sony presented to reduce its manufacturing j capacity and consolidate its electronics businesses to focus on networks aims to fundamentally change the way the group operates.

"It is a fundamental restructuring.” emphasises Nobuyuki Idei, president and joint chief executive. “We have to restructure while we can. while we still have prof- its,” he says.

There is a hint of urgency in Mr Idei's tone. That is not surprising, given that Sony is expected to report a loss in the fourth quarter for the first time in four years. In the year to March, consoli- dated pre-tax income is fore- cast to fall 21 per cent The company's electronics business, its biggest revenue earner, has suffered a plunge in -profitability due to weak demand in key markets and falling prices.

But more importantly, Mr Idei is in a hurry to trans- form Sony into a company that is squarely at the fore- front of the multimedia age.

In spite of its vast techno- logical wealth, its software assets, superior marketing expertise and unparalleled

By Jim Kefly

Andersen Consulting shrugged off any effects of Us protracted separation pro- ceedings with its sister firm Arthur Andersen to report a 35 per cent surge in global revenues in 1998 to $&3bn.

Andersen Consulting, which became a stand-alone business in 1989, has recorded three years of growth of 25 per cent or more. It will see this success as vindication of its policy of separate development

-In Europe we have enjoyed our most successful

brand recognition, Sony has not been a big beneficiary of the internet age and of net- working businesses that are driving the US economy.

"Japan is way behind in the internet and the gap is widening," he warns. There are no businesses compara- ble to those in the US that are thriving as a result of the internet

“People like Steve Case at AOL are like rock stars and they make Sony look like part of the establishment" he says somewhat forlornly.

If Sony Is to break out of that establishment mould and join the new “stars" of the multimedia age, it can- not remain a conventional electronics manufacturer, content to simply manufac- ture hardware, no matter how advanced the technol- ogy.

Through his latest reor- ganisation, Mr Idei is trying to transform Sony into a company that is more In tune with the new age in which software and the dis- tribution of contents pro- rides the added value that is critical to the success of the hardware.

As such, manufacturing is no longer the critical activ- ity it used to be for Japanese electronics manafacrurers. If Mr Idei could have his way, he would get rid of more manufacturing facilities that stand in the way of success

year yet with revenues exceeding S3bn for the first time.” said Vernon Ellis, managing director for Europe. Middle East, Africa and India.

Andersen Consulting invested heavily in brand building in 1998 with the first redesign of its logotype and an aggressive sponsor- ship campaign of special events: “A powerful brand name is critical if Andersen Consulting is to differentiate itself from competitors in a converging market,” said Mr Ellis.

Meanwhile the two sister

because they destroy, rather than create, value.

“Sony should not do OEM business. We don't want to be a sub-contractor to com- puter manufacturers. There are areas (which we don't need), like the manufactur- ing of CD-ROM drives. It is difficult to quit but it will be done within one or two years," he says.

PlayStation. Sony's phe- nomenally successful video games machine, succeeded in part because Sony Computer Entertain- ment - the company that makes it - was able to use Sony's manufacturing facili- ties rather than build its own. Mr Idei points out.

The added value that Sony needs to offer will come from the synergies of hardware, software and distribution that are increasingly real- ised in network businesses. Yesterday’s reorganisation lays the organisational foun- dations for that shift.

While the changes in Sony's market environment

firms are appearing before a Paris court of arbitration over their long-running turf war in which both have clashed in the consulting market. Observers expect the court to break their remaining ties - but at a price. Both firms have made substantial claims.

Andersen Consulting's results - at least comparable with leading competitors - will be put forward as evi- dence that the dispute has not sapped energies or blurred the firm's focus on providing high-level strate- gic advice for multi-national

are forcing it to transform itself, the pressures the com- pany faces to raise share- holder value are equally strong.

“About 40 per cent of Sony's shareholders are for- eigners so we need to be con- cerned about shareholder value. If our share price is so low, we might be taken over." he warns.

But there are no business models Mr Idei can turn to. Much as he seems to admire AOL and Yahoo!, these com- panies “are virtual portable companies. They are con- tents aggregators, but we have manufacturing facili- ties so we are a little differ- ent. In that respect. Dell is somewhat more similar to what Sony sees as a model." he says.

Somewhat surprisingly. Mr Idei points out that Soft- bank comes closest to pro- viding Sony with a business model. Softbank, founded by Masayoshi Son. its contro- versial president, has grown at a phenomenal pace through acquisitions of and

companies. Arthur Ander- sen's results have also remained robust.

Arthur Andersen's UK rev- enues touched £545di ($872m) - up 23 per cent - with more than £50m of last year's reve- nues coming from overseas placements of UK staff.

“We increased our reve- nues by nearly a quarter and recruited over 400 top gradu- ates." said Janies Hall. UK managing partner.

The firm’s revenues grew at 24 per cent In the Ameri- cas, 33 per cent in Europe. Middle East, Africa and India, and 1 per cent in Asia

investments in internet busi- nesses. It is a shareholder in in Yahoo!.

“I am very dose in think- ing to Son. He always teases me that even though Sony is a big company, we are doing the same thing." Mr Idei laughs.

Like Softbank, which is almost like a holding com- pany, the reorganisation announced yesterday will make Sony headquarters an “active investor”, less involved in the day-to-day operations of each of the businesses and more focused on overseeing the group.

Like Mr Son, Mr Idei has dearly been converted to the pursuit of value in the opportunities opened up by the internet. The same can not be said of Japan as a whole. “There is so much potential in Japan. Unless action is taken quickly (to meet the challenge of the internet!, it will be a tremen- dous waste," he says.

Sony's latest move is no doubt calculated to avoid that fate.

Pacific. It has 65,000 staff compared to 21.000 a decade ago.

Its largest industry prac- tices grew strongly in 1998 - financial services jumping 33 per cent to S2-5bn, com- munications 30 per cent to $lJ2bn, and energy up 41 per cent to $614m. Chemicals and health services, both jumped 42 per cent, the larg- est increases.

The firm invested J585m in internal training - up 38 per cent over the previous year - and $5S8m in research and development - up by 29 per cent.

Branding buoys Andersen Consulting

Zurich adds $lbn charge to lift reserves

By William HaB in Zurich

ami Andrew Bofger In London

Zurich Financial Services, formed from last year's merger of Zurich Insurance and BAT Industries financial services arm. is adding an extra Slbn to its already announced $1.4 bn restructur- ing charge, mainly to strengthen its reserves after the acquisition of Eagle Star’s underperforming on- life insurance business.

Rolf Hiippi. ZFS’s chief executive, said the need for the additional increase in reserves was the main rea- son the terms of the merger bad been renegotiated and Zurich Insurance's stake bad risen from 55 per cent to 57 per cent of the combined entity. However, at the time of the merger there had not been enough evidence to prove that BATs Eagle Star insurance business was not adequately reserved.

Mr Hiippi said that the integration of BAT's finan- cial services businesses would inevitably lead to additional job losses and office closures in the UK. To date, the group has announced 1,600 job losses, most of them in the UK. ZPS is also taking an additional $200m of restructuring charges and writedowns, which now total $800m.

However, Mr Hiippi insisted the need to boost reserves had not shaken his enthusiasm for the merger. The integration was “mov-

ing faster and proving to be more extensive” than planned, and be expected annual costs savings would increase from the already announced $4 00m to SSOOm by 2001.

Zurich's decision to boost its restructuring charge by 70 per cent led to a sharp drop in the shares of Allied Zurich and Zurich Allied, the two quoted holding com- panies of Zurich Financial Services (ZFS). Lewis Phillips of Fox-Pitt. Kelton in London, said the news was "disappointing" but it would not alter his estimate that the group would earn $2.8bn in 1999 and $3.3bn in 2000.

When the merger was announced more than a year ago Zurich disclosed a one- time $1.4bn restructuring charge for 1998. The figure was reconfirmed at last Sep- tember's half year results and Zurich indicated that $700m-$800m. or more than half, would be used to increase underwriting reserves consistent with the existing standards of the Zurich Group, the Swiss partner.

However, the group now plans to double the $80Gm it had earmarked for the strengthening of non-life technical reserves to $1.6bn after a review of all non-life insurance liabilities and recent claims experience. It primarily reflects US and UK asbestos and pollution haz- ard exposures.

Gucci chief agrees to reopen

LVMH

By Ian Bicfcerton in Amsterdam and Alice Rawsthom in London

Domenico De Sole, president of Gucci, the embattled Ital- ian fashion company, has agreed to reopen negotia- tions with LVMH, the French luxury goods group, in an attempt to resolve the legal battle between them.

However. Mr De Sole did not appear to have softened his attitude towards LVMH's proposals to forge a trading relationship with Gucci. “We have done a tremendous job of running this company and don't need any help from anyone,” he said-

Tbe two groups have been at loggerheads since LVMH. which owns the Givenchy and Louis Vuitton luxury brands, revealed earlier this year that it had stealthily acquired a 34.4 per cent stake in Gucci.

Bernard Arnault. LVMH’s chairman, has since striven to persuade Gucci to collabo- rate with his group. He and Mr De Sole started discuss- ing a standstill agreement on LVMH's rights as a share- holder last month, but failed to agree terms.

The conflict flared up when LVMH proposed appointing a nominee direc- tor to Gucci’s board. Gucci, advised by Morgan Stanley,

talks

opposed the request and announced it was issuing 20m new shares (the same number as LVMH owns) to a newly created employee share option plan (Esopi.

LVMH. advised by Gold- man Sachs, asked a Dutch court (Gucci is quoted in Amsterdam) to declare the Esop unlawful. Last week, the court froze the voting rights on both the Esop shares and those of LVMH in a preliminary ruling pending a final hearing due to start on April 22.

Ii also ordered the two groups to try to resolve their differences by negotiation. LVMH immediately offered to reopen discussions in a letter to Mr De Sole, who accepted that offer in a letter sent yesterday.

So far. neither side show's any sign of moving from its original position. LVMH pro- posed recommencing negoti- ations on the basis of a standstill agreement, which was rejected by the Gucci board last month.

Nor is there any sign of compromise by Mr De Sole, who has maintained that LVMH should make a full bid for Gucci, which it would be obliged to do If the com- pany was quoted in London or New York, rather than Amsterdam.

•n «. N.;

PDVSA’s oil dream evaporates

Raymond Colrtt examines the critical situation for Venezuelan producers and workers

The mood at PetrOleos de Venezuela, the state oil com- pany, has been gloomy in recent weeks. The grand expansion plans to double its output and secure Venezue- la’s position as one of the world’s top three ofi produc- ers have all but evaporated.

The collapse to global oil prices has triggered a series of draconian budget cuts that have plunged the econ- omy into deep recession, while increased intervention by President Hugo ChAvez's ministers threatens to down- size the company further.

Like other oil companies, PDVSA has seen its reve- nues plummet over the past 18 months as a result of declining oil prices. But in addition, PDVSA has had to bear the brunt of a 525.0® barrel per day production cut that Venezuela agreed last year with other leading oil producing countries in an attempt to stem dwindling prices. Crude oil exports could reap as little as J9-5bn thte year, down from more than SISbn in 1997-

While the ofl sector was roaring ahead at a cent growth rate m i®7. it contracted by 1 per cent last year and is expected to fen by another 1-2 per cent this

year. Hundreds of service and supply companies, which had been gearing up to meet the needs of an oil sector - set to expand in the next decade - are now oper- ating at 30 to 50 per cent of their capacity and have fired some 30,0® workers.

“The situation is critical and there appears no imme- diate hope for a recovery of the public oil sector." says Luis Eduardo Paul, head of Venezuela's association of petroleum companies.

PDVSA is having to cut spending by more than 36 per cent of its 1999 bud- get, already the smallest in 10 years. Even so, it still has an estimated financing requirement of $2.4bn.

Earlier this week. Roberto f^anriini- PDVSA's new pres- ident, sought to placate employee concerns, saying there would be no immediate salary reductions- Yet lie also announced austerity measures across the hoard and hinted at personnel reductions. “We will reduce or eliminate all aspects of our administration that do not directly generate

results,” he said.

Following a big corporate restructuring that began early in 1999 a*d merged

subsidiaries along functional rather than regional lines, about 14,000 of the 42,000 employees are estimated to be surplus. According to internal company proposals, most are to be laid off over the next 10 years.

Yet analysts say it is not only falling oil prices that are behind the most recent cost-cutting measures - it is aien the intent of the new government to shrink PDVSA so as to free resources for non-oil eco- nomic activities as well as increased social spending.

Mr Chdvez has repeatedly accused PDVSA of being a state within a state and lashed out against allegedly lavish spending by its execu- tives. He heightened fears of increased government inter- vention in PDVSA when he appointed two military offi- cers to run the company’s

finance /personnel and plan- ning departments. To help plug its growing budget defi- cit the government is now said to be demanding increased dividend payments from PDVSA.

“It is being run down. The government is decapitalising' the company," says Andres Sosa Pietri, former PDVSA president. “If things con-

tinue at this rate, the com- pany is going to lose its competitiveness.”

Critics say excessive aus- terity at PDVSA will not only diminish its production capacity and hence its future fiscal contribution, but could also provoke a flight of human capital

Yet the government's plans are already facing opposition from business and labour alike. They have warned it not to extend or deepen production cuts at the meeting of the Organisa- tion of Petroleum Exporting Countries later this month. Unemployed oil workers in the port city of Barcelona went on hunger strike last week demanding jobs.

Many Venezuelans acknowledge the country's over-dependence on oil. Yet few see an immediate alter- native to it “The problem is that nous of the govern- ment's proposed alternatives - tourism, agriculture, gas or petrochemicals - will pro- duce significant returns in the short term,” claims Mazhar Al-Shereidah, a critic of PDVSA’s former expansion plans.

See Capital Markets See Commodities

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Global Agency are Tost Santas. CUbsnh. NA London Mata ift 1899

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Notice of Redenomination to Bondholders of

BANQUE NATIONALE DE PARIS

ITL 150,000,000,000 Floating Rale Perpetual Step-Up Subordinated Notes

ISIN : XS008 6000667

issued under the programme for the issuance of debt instruments

Banque National* ds Parts, has decided ID redenominate 'he above r«fc:*es in accordance with feragrapb l uRedenotmrw'wft-i ot the Schedule to the FVIong Supplemenl dated Apnl 14, 19W

RedenananaBon Date

V11 ,7- 1999

Renonanatintion

New minimum denomination will be t own.

^denomination Method

CJtwrt* position will be lettenomtruiixi in boolc - entry loim. there will be no physical exchange oi wcurmes.

Redenomination Basis

Hie nominal ffL amount for each Neie shall be converted inio eurt* by using the Fixed Conversion Rate and rounding ihe figure to the neanoi cent, with 0.005 euro befog rounded upwards.

Cash Gonpenadion

There will be no cash condensation

Reeanventhming

With effect rrom the Redenomination Dale, iheday-coiart ir.iaion rdened to in paragraoh 51 or the Prion® Supplement will cease (a he M-T360. and shall be on the basis of the actual numba of dap elapsed divided by the actual number of days in the penod from and including the immediately preceding interest payment datetobue\clidinglh.-neiitschfduled mieresl payment dale tAdual/AduaJj-

Any reference lo business days In the p> long siflilement shat! be dc-oned to refer to a day on which the Trans-European Automated RwHunc- Gioss .settlement Express Transfer sw/em Taiga >/ is open.

ISIN Code

The ISIN Cede of the rodencioinaied Nolo shall be XS00954Et3-'6. Doled March 10. 1999

Banque Nadonale de Fkns iIuxL-nfootug) S.A.

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FINANCIAL TIMES WEDNESDAY MARQH VP1999 ]

RESULTS

Dhridemds -

Current

ok or

GOTKWraflnB

Total for

Total test

TUmomr (Em)

pnm pm#

EPS (p)

Papuan sA

payment

it Met*

year

IB*

BBA

Yr id Dec 31

1211

h.193 1

164

(156.7 )

23.7

(243)

6.15

May 21

5.6

83

B

BAT

Yr to Dec 31

17,376

117334J

7384

(8754)

22.17

(2639 )

16§

July 1

16*

24

26**

Cabs

Yr to Dec 31

212

1204 )

3.49

(332V)

1633f

(20.03 }

2325

June 25

1,75

43

3

Cantab PkmB

Yt to Dec 31

3.95

(7.65 J

733L

(335L)

173L

(8L)

-

-

-

-

-

Caradon

_ Yr to Dec 31

1.545

H.717 )

134.1L*

(1294 }

39.114

(133)

63

June 1

6.6

9.5

93

Yr to Dec 31

2JK3

(2359 1

3534

(3334 1

33L

(nH )

1.5

July 23

1

3

4.7

Coantry Ganfeos . _

Yr to Dec 31

54.1

(48.5 |

432

(3.51 )

1036t

(13.46)

1.45

July 1

135

215

135

Crests Care

. Yr to Dec 31

56.1

150.9)

5.084

(5.43 )

2.1

(21 )

0.73

May 4

039

1.06

1

Criterion Props 9 mtfts to Dec 31 *

2JSJ

(5.73 J

0.77

(1.37)

736

(13.68 }

5

Apr 21

33

5

6

DBS Data

Yr Id Dec 31

6.78

(6.77)

0.026L

(0.B26L}

013L

(Z02L )

-

-

-

-

ffl

EzpameS Inti

Yr to Dec 31

1195

AIM )

113

(9.74)

1335

(10.41 )

2.£>

Apr 30

2.15

43

335

Fife

Yr to Dec 31

402

139.3 )

43514

(13)

29.70.

(835 )

nH

-

26

13

3.7

6E0 Inferactlva S

Yr to Dec 31

0364

13.06 1

17SL

(930.)

16Lt

OOL)

-

-

-

-

-

Hampden

Yr to Jan 2

43.2

(453 1

14

(2334 )

433

(831 )

23

May 14

23

2.9

23

Honflngrion Life

Yr id Dec 31

5£6

(637|

25.44

17.164 )

14.4Lt

(4.71 )

nfl

-

nfl

nfl

nil

HnritngluaB Props

. 6 mshs to Nm 30

sa

(523 )

5*L¥

H33)

035L

(038 )

-

-

-

-

1

Indept Insurance

_Yrto0ec3i *

457 93

(55230 1

91.6

(823)

28.9

(25.7)

23

2.05

4

33

Kerry £

Yr a Dae 31

7,733

(1.344 )

933

(783 )

43.7t

(39.4 )

3.5

Apr 1

234

5.18

4.4

Lambert llmwlli

Yr to Dec 31

104 .B

(1093 )

4.07*

(4394 1

183

(21 )

9.2S

May 14

5.75

123

83

Metal Bulletin

Yr a Dec 31

26.3

(24.6)

63

(538 )

39.8

(39.7 )

183

Apr 30

163

26

23

Noristi A

Yr to Dec 31

935

19 .ES )

234

(237V)

193

(25.1 )

3

Mar 31

3

4

4

Partco

- Yr to Dec 31

435.6

(386 )

21.74

(21.3)

21 2\

(21.1 )

7

May 26

6.1

ID

8.7

Pennant Inti 4>

Yr to Dec 31

437

(4 36 )

0.641

10653 )

7.41

(7.95)

2.4

Apr 17

-

33

-

Pocbln’S 6 mtfts to Nov 30 *

193

(31.6 1

133

(1.42 |

4.4

(43)

1

fV 19

1

-

33

Potyppe

6 mae to Dec 31

1223

1119.6 )

123

(12 )

439

143)

1 2

Apr Z3

1.03

-

333

Ramadan's (Harry)

Yr to Sepl 27

J0.1

(633 |

1.97L4

(132V)

213L

(12.1 1

nfl

-

4

1

5

Yr to Dec 3!

1576

(1423 )

18.4

(16 )

14.46

(12.43 J

286

Mar 30

238

335

337

Hyland

_ Yr to Dec 31 *

611.4

(499.6 )

5.384

16.08V)

12.4

(153)

33

May 5

2 S

4.7

4.4

Senior EngmeerHig .

Yr to Dec 31

509-6

(4793 1

493

(43.1 )

1131

(1048 }

232

June 3

234

439

434

Waterford W*wood A„

Yr to Dec 31

575.3

(4173 )

1434

(1234 1

1.74

(0.08 |

1.4

Mar 31

135

13

1.6

Wilson CormoBy

Yr a Dec 31

3803

(312 1

443

(38 )

153

(13.1 >

4.45

June 1

4

635

538

Wyndham Motor

Yr to Dec 31

1023

(81.5 1

131

(133)

24.33

(33.08 )

5

Apr?

5

83

5

Tide Catto

Yr to Dec 31

5323

(367.2 )

41.34

(38.1 )

173

(24.4)

6.6

Jitfy 5

6

11

10

AtMbntaUi

Qcrent

Date of

Corresponding

Total tor

Tool last

Investment Trusts

HAH (Pl

EsntaSt (Em)

EPS (ft)

payment <w

payment

dMdend

year

year

Aberdeen Conv toe

6 mflis to Dec 31

107.59

(111.181

1.63

(0873 )

4.5

(334 )

3.2

Apr 1

33

.

78

Edinburgh Income ~ 9 mtfts to Jan 31 S

663

1763 )

0.318

(0534)

2.12

(336 j

0.9**

Apr 2

D.9

-

33

Edinburgh US Track

Yr to Jan 31

634.15

(486.64)

362

(4.05)

434

(4.86 t

285

May 25

285

435

485

Hand TR Pacific

Yr to Dec 31

60.9

[68.1 1

235

(136 1

1339

(0389 )

035

Apr 16

0.25

Oisn

0258

Mghcreft

-Yr to Dec 31 *

507

1451 )

0385V

(0.958V)

23.7

(21.1 )

4.6

June 4

435

7.1

63

COMPANIES & FINANCE: UK

BUILDING MATERIALS GROUP E134M IN LOSS AFTER EXCEPTIONALS

Earnings storm basic. Dividends shown net- Figures in bracket; are for conaspaitUng period. 4AHer exceptional charge. V«ter exceptKXBl ere®, specie) of 4p afso declared. ^Foreign income dnridend. **!nckates FlO element tOti increased capita {On reduced capital. * Comparatives lor 12 months to March 31 1998. SUS currency. * Comparawes restated. !_■ Grass premiums written. tjwtan stock. Ibtsh curacy. Hubs. {{Excludes special. #Comparatwes tor 12 montbs to April 30 1998.

Caradon starts cost cutting

By Charles PrettBc

Caradon. the building products group, yesterday accelerated its rehabilitation with investors with plans to increase sales and protect profits by cutting both prices and costs.

Jurgen Hintz, who took over as chief executive last May. said: '"Too many Cara- don businesses have been uncompetitive, losing mar- ket share and volume year after year. We aim to rebuild our market shares by offer- ing superior value to cus- tomers, underpinned by cost leadership."

Caradon ’s shares have

sharply underperformed the sector since their peak of ■J39p five years ago. since when they have fallen steadily. So far this year, though, they have outper- formed the market by more than 40 per cent as the group made progress with dispos- als.

Christopher Grant, an ana- lyst at BT Alex Brown, said Mr Hintz had “done a very good job. Caradon has had a woeful track record in terms of shareholder value since 1993 - it's been destroying value. Hintz is beginning to put things right but it will be long drawn out process. In his initial year he's done

all that can be expected of him".

Caradon yesterday reported a £1 34.1m pre-tax loss for 1338 against profits of nwm The loss was after £243 Jim of exceptional charges mostly related to riicprwgtc where previously written-off goodwill had to be written back. Turnover fell 4 per cent to £l£9bn.

The shares fell 9p to 149p.

Since September, the group has - sold six busi- nesses for £80m. including its Everest windows opera- tion. and it is in talks to sell another four.

The disposal programme will leave Caradon with 24

businesses -in four, divisions compared with more- than® . in seven, divisions % 1994.

Operating profit fettf'per cent to £U9j3m. The Euro- pean plumbing andeleetrical ; businesses suffered 'from strong competition, the Ids? . of a main customer and- the- Asian economic crisis.

Profits from plumbing fdl a third to £32. lm and profits ; from the electrical dlvfidon fell 4 per rent. to. £343% - r.:

Mr Hintz saW tiKse di vi- sions had suffered; from unrealistically high prating; Margins would suffer in the short term but they would- be restored by heavy dost- cutting. . i-r

Rhodia may bid for Albright

By Lucy Smy in London and Tracy Corrigan hi New York

Rhodia, the French chemicals group, yesterday confirmed market suspicious that it was interested in bid- ding for Albright & Wilson, just a day after Albemarle, a US rival, bid £40Sm (S656m) for the UK chemicals com- pany.

Shares in Albright rose S per cent to 140p on the

expectation that any offer would have to be at least lOp higher than Albemarle’s offer of !30p a share. Rhodia said it had been in prelimi- nary discussions with Albright.

Analysts said a merger with Rhodia, which is 68 per cent owned by Rhine Poul- enc. the life sciences com- pany. would have more obvi- ous product overlaps and potential for cost savings

Resilient

performance in

difficult trading

environment

Preliminary results for the year to 3 1 December

1998

OPERATING PROFIT PRE-EXCEPTIONALS £1,550111 PRE-TAX PROFIT £738m

EARNINGS PER SHARE 22.2p

ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE 46.1p

DIVIDENDS PER SHARE 24.0p

1997

£1,591171

£875m

26. 6p

49.1 p

Operating profit, at £1,550 million, was 1 per cent higher in local currency before US tobacco settlements costs and a sales tax recovery in Brazil.

The decline in pre-tax profit and earnings per share was principally due to the initial costs of the US tobacco settlements of £61 3 million (1 997: £258 million).

Against a global cigarette market which is estimated to have declined. Group volumes for the year were slightly ahead with the growth rate moderated by reduced volumes in the US and Asia-Pacific. There were good performances in Latin America, Europe, Amesca and Canada.

The Board is recommending a final dividend of 1 6p, which will be paid on 1 July. At the time the proposed merger with Rothmans was announced; a special interim dividend of 4p for 1 999 was also declared, which will be paid on the same date.

"The focus of our attention in 1 999 will be on managing the business in line with our long term strategy in a difficult trading environment. We will also be ensuring that the integration of the Rothmans business, once the necessary shareholder and regulatory approvals have been received, goes as smoothly as possible."

Martin Broughton, Chairman

FuS financial suttmencs tor the year ended 31/1 2/93 ml be delivered u the Reguuar of Campania and cany an unquaified audit njpjit The 1998 Annual Report r. bong jxmed lo ihatrtnkfen at the end oi Math. Copies eC the prdanrw? annountemer* mm be eftjutned hem ttw Compaq Secretary. Sntah Amwfcan Tobacco pj.c , GM* House, 4 Ten** Place London WC2P 2PC.

than with Albemarle.

Albright's main products are surfactants, used in detergents, and phosphate- based chemicals. Rhodia also specialises in these, while Albemarle mostly makes bromide-based chemicals.

Most analysts said they did not expect Rhodia to make an offer before it was dear whether Albright had succeeded in purchasing the phosphates arm of Sohitia of

the US. Albright has made it joint bid with PCS, fe “U5-': partner, for the Solutia bust- . nesses which are valued; at more than SZOOm.

. Rhodia said-it -was-espe- . cially interested- In Albright's phosphates tafisi-. □ess. but declined to; com- ment on whether it was also looking at Solatia's :.pbosr phates arm. . , .

Albright is. advised by Xaz- ard Brothers. . ; "

NEWS DIGEST

ENGINEERING

BBA moves towards high-margin products

BBA Group, the engineer, yesterday unveiled plans to increase its revenues from services and high technology ... . materials. Roberto Quarts, chief executive, suggested the group would shift Its emphasis away from its automotive division, which is seen as vulnerable to a downturn in world car markets.

Mr Quarta's plans reflect industry worries that engineer- ing groups will find tt hard to prosper if they remain suppfi- ' ere of low-margin commodity products. Last week Cook- son, the industrial materials group, said it would focus more on engineering services in an attempt to overcome increased competition.

Mr Quarts said BBA would concentrate on developing two divisions that together account for aknost 80 per cent of group sales: aviation, which offers a range of services for corporate jets; and nonwovens, which makes absor- bent materials used in products from timber cladding to nappies. “The key tor BBA is to become a provider of val- ue-added solutions for our customers,” he said.

He said services accounted for 36 per cent of sales, against 15 per cent in 1993. Over the same period the group had increased the proportion of turnover derived from consumer items from 10 to 36 per cent \

His comments came as BBA revealed pre-tax profits for 1998 ahead from El 56.7m to £164m on sales up 1.5 per cent at £1.21 bn. Michael Peel

#

Senior hints at non-core sell-off

Senior Engineering Group yesterday hinted that it might - sell one of its divisions as part of its plan to become a specialist manufacturer of flexible metal tubes and bettows.

The group said it was focusing on developing its core flexonics businesses, which makes materials capable of- withstanding extremes of temperature and ackfrty. "ft fol- lows that anything else is non-core", said Andrew Parrish, chief executive.

His comments raised the prospect that Senior might sen its engineered products and services division, which accounts for 29 per cent of group sales. Mr Parrish decribed the division as “very much the rump of the old Senior" . The engineered products division is growing more slowly and achieving lower profit margins than the group’s other businesses. Engineered products made operating profits of £7.4 m last year on sales of £151m.

Senior yesterday unveiled 1998 pre-tax profits £6.4m '• ' higher at £49.5m, after a goodwill write-off of £1.1m. Sales rose 6.3 per cent to £509.6m. Michael Peel

TRW extends LucasVarity bid

TRW, the US steering systems and spacecraft equipment manufacturer, has extended to March 25 the acceptance period for its £4 bn cash offer for LucasVarity, the UK-listed automotive components supplier. TRW said it had control - of 44.8 per cent of LucasVarity after receiving acceptances representing 37.41 per cent of the group.

HOUSEHOLD GOODS

Japan hits Waterford Wedgwood

Waterford Wedgwood, the Irish luxury goods company chaired by Torty O’Reilly, yesterday said sluggish demand ' from Japanese tourists had undermined an otherwise credit able" annual performance.

Richard Barnes, finance director, said: “The slowdown in Japan has hit our domestic business there. Japanese tour- ists have also cut down their travel to other Asian markets, as well as to Europe and the US."

The company said sales in its Wedgwood china and ceramics division had fallen 5 per cent and operating prof- its 35 per cent as the Asian crisis continued and the strong pound hit exports to continental Europe. However, strong demand in the US helped lift sales In the Waterford crystal business by more than 15 per cent and operating profits by 40 per cent. In 1998 pre-tax profits rose 22 per cent to l£14.9m ($20.4m). Part of this increase was the result of a reduced restructuring charge of l£24.6m, down from last year’s I £27. 8m. Group turnover grew 38 per cent to i£57S.3m fi£A1 7 -2m). of which more than one-fifth came from Rosenthal, the German porcelain business acquired last year. Dan Bilefsky

Coats rejects merger talk

Coats Viyella, the textiles group, has rejected speculation that it might participate in further consolidation in the industry. Michael Ost, chief executive, said: “We have looked in some depth [at the benefits of a deal with another UK clothing manufacturer] and cannot see how it would create shareholder value."

The comments accompanied an 18 per cent fall. In 1998 operating profits from continuing operations to £117m. Profits were hardest hit in the UK, where Jaeger, the fash- ion retail brand, and the home furnishings side were affected by the retail slowdown and price pressures.

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FINANCIAL TIMES WEDNESDAY MARCH ,0 ,99,

19

EURO PRICES

equities

German jobs figures encourage bourses

CURRENCIES & MONEY

EURO SPOT FORWARD AGAINST THE EURO

On*

EUROPEAN OVERVIEW

By Fbrian Glnibet

euro-

European shares moved higher yesterday encouraged by lower-than -expected Ger- man unemployment as well as record French consumer confidence.

All eyes were on the US as markets expected the recent rally on Wall Street to come to an end.

FTSE EMoc 100

Index

°pened eener- limited damage to the ally weaker, but rebounded zone, later on higher productivity “The total holdings of Jap- . anese and other Asian stocks

marirl#1^0?6, k°”ever* ^he by European investors only markets faced lacklustre amounts to S150bn. com- sentiment and dwindling pared with a European-wide bqmdity for most of the trad- market capitalisation of S6 ^ B5me testers Sa.OOObn." said Richard mvertea funds to newly Davidson at Morgan Stanley upbeat Asian markets. Dean Witter.

*J «!“? analysts a^reed Shares in leisure and tnat the drain of European entertainment companies capital was to cause only put in some of the strongest

Range

WAftr

Dirt ntd If* tow

Dm B#a

ftoto WA

0n> iht

feta ffflt

performances yesterday. They were responding to continuously high consumer spending.

Telecoms also ended higher on the back of ongo- ing merger talk in Italian telecom sector.

Shares in Telecom Italia Mobile closed 4.58 per cent higher at €6.39. due to specu- lation over a possible merger with Telecom Italia.

On a more general Dote,

1100.

800.

Nov

1998

Jan

Feb 99

Mar

FTSE

m THREE MONTH EUH1BOB FUTURES flJFB Elm 100-rate

Open

Sen price

Orange

w

Lora

Mar

96020

96020

-

96030

96.920

Jin

67.070

07055

-0010

97.085

97040

Sep

97080

97065

-0010

97.100

97.00

Dec

96830

06025

*0005

96045

96.785

THHH toOHTh EURO LBKW FUTOBSS ttJFT?)

Oro 100-rale

E st vti 14434 40078 4741 B 12895

Open Int 141075 157378 121793 B7B85

Open

SeU price Change Hgh

la*

Eat ita

Open «.

Mar

96025

96020

+0 9602S

90920

1300

118537

Jun

97.075

97.055

-001 D 97075

97050

1078

107361

Sep

97090

97065

-0010 97090

97.070

536

93855

Dec

96035

96025

+0.005 96035

06000

2079

66106

THREE Mfflmi BfflO U80R 0PTRMS 00% Cm 100 -rate

SMB

■IIP .

PUIS

Price

Mb

Jen

Sep Dec Ma

Jim

Sep

Dec

98875

97000

O.OSB

0.180

0.130 0210 0030

0.115

0305

0255

97125

97256

0.020

0.075

0.070 0.110 0215

026u

0495

0405

EsL ML Ml. Cafc S2S Pta Q. PltaM *y* H»n H.. Ctta 279247 Puta tana FTSE EUBOTOP 100 HDQK FUTURES (LJFFQ C20 per hit index KM

Open

Sett price

Orange

rtf*

Low

EsL w4

Open W.

ter

2S650

28500

+50

28650

2845.0

12SS

ran

Jun

28760

28500

+60

28760

2876.0

1

328

BIRO 5ITLE FTSE EUROTOP 100 MDEX OPTION (AEX) €10 pei indax point

2000 K50 2700 2750 2800 2BS0 2000 2050

CPGPCPCPCPCPCPCP Itar 254 E2B79 102 14 12B 22 83 36 B5431 8517 12

Hr 2B6352IB4420755T798BI37861BB)97 82]32E1 162

ES vo tel Pm dq/i apM need tout B.752 . pmum non m Und si —■ a pttm

OTHER INDICES

Mar

9

Mar

B

Mv

5.

1898/99

Mg* low

Stee compfcdfcai HU Law

DJ Sob 50 3509L96 349628 3S2705 387182 243307 387082 243307

DJ EOT Sh 50 349154 3495.43 3S36.64 3B8&3B 241923 388036 341923

MSdEOTJ* 84 1212.47 121355 T31&5B 90359 ISOS m78

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LV.For 'realtime FTSE Eurofop 300 index quotes cal/ FT Cfty/tne on- 090& 843 5920. Calls are charged at 60p per minute at all times.

1 /TSE Actuaries Share Indices , ‘European series

Mar 09

tetata 6 Regtaral Markets

Euro

hda

Day's

«

change

potto

YWa Toss %

xd ad Ytd

IdW ram (Enrol £

FTSE Euro top 300

123935

+005

*084

2.16

314

1279.44

FTSE Euro top 100

2B59.44

+0 84

+23.70

214

807

1028.19

FJSf&torJOO

1009.77

+0.10

+ 105

200

074

10SS.75

FTSEEteUd

120601

+027

+309

278

206

125107

FTSEEteBd Ebloc

1165.74

-031

-307

234

105

121249

FIS EuraWfl Ex UK

123202

+009

+7.16

217

1.14

125651

FTSE Bmrtop 300 Regbau

EmUH

126152

*0.19

+205

1.96

iia

1288.73

UK

1212.15

*1.09

+13.11

233

7.13

128046

Europe Ex-EuuUdc

122702

+093

+11.32

208

5.10

127636

Eunpe Ex -UK

1255.85

+0.27

+134

137

0.91

128028

FTSE Etautop toduHy Sectors

RESOURCES

91808

*064

+501

317

309

964.15

Mining

90701

+1.13

+10.10

4.01

2107

949.1 B

08 6 Sat

88307

+062

+5.41

113

202

908.49

BASK WDUSms

107200

+0.08

+088

277

255

109807

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811.75

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+108

277

247

828.60

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1030.00

+012

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205

1.13

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94106

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227

328

1142 70

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79909

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215

289

81149

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2.15

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102176

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1025.40

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125508

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1260.19

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104

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127430

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inflows to equity mutual funds, which invest in euro- zone stocks, has been disap- pointing. according to a recent report by Salomon Smith Barney.

December's inflows were at a low of £2bn, compared with a $6.7bn monthly aver- age in 1998.

January's figure was weaker than expected at $3.6bru with the outlook for February's inflows being equally subdued.

The report highlighted a possible supply imbalance in this year’s second quarter,

as ¥34bn new issues were expected to meet with little demand.

The FTSE Eurotop 300 index advanced 6.84 points to 1.239.35. while the FTSE Eurotop 100 Increased 23.70 to 2.859.44.

The FTSE Ebloc index of leading stocks in the euro- zone settled 1.95 points higher at 1,009.77.

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tam-f tod As

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BM AM

Star

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USS

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1 yoai

3.11

314

542

545

100

104

133

506

021

024

2year

3.18

122

5.43

546

100

1.88

506

5J9

006

009

3 year

304

308

5.46

500

203

211

508

671

009

002

* year

154

308

546

500

222

200

5.76

5.79

008

0.89

5 year

173

177

144

548

240

248

502

505

1.14

1.17

8 year

191

305

143

5.47

20B

264

507

500

140

143

/year

408

4.12

5.44

548

2.72

200

502

695

103

106

a year

403

427

545

5.49

208

296

506

509

101

104

9 year

406

440

546

500

103

111

640

603

106

109

10 year

4.45

4.49

548

500

117

325

603

606

209

212

12 year

400

404

5.47

502

108

149

6.11

614

230

224

15 year

400

404 '

148

503

164

174

618

621

255

260

20 year

5.02

506

5.49

504

190

400

625

628

273

278

25 year

115

5.19

5.48

504

4.00

4.10

80S

628

202

207

30 year

121

525

5.47

504

4.08

4.19

625

628

245

291

BM am ufc rata as at Eton of London Mateo. US E b qutod annual monay actiaVXO tests a^toa 3 morta luor. £ and van quatad on a taM-anata acata/385 baato agate B moan ita. (MM ftw «m <w amta Mntf DM teto state B rara* Eutafttoor atti Ut KMfdu oi w 1 1Bs raa mm M wnM zguM 3 raanm BrtwAiuti SiuwHaagUMmiiO.

Euro band yfefd cunre

Euro aganst tta doflar

Atfra*

1053

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31

12

70

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1306

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12

47

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15

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1154

-1

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54

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50

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50

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45

1.14

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1 3 57 10 15 20 30

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1999

Mar

Mta 09

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data

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BM

price

Bid

ytad

tay-i

diga

yid

Mtffe

Chge

YW

Sprt

«

Sorts

sovaefins

UK

017QT

4050

AAA

101007

304

+009

+0.10

+0.13

Denmark

01/02

4.750

AA+

103069

306

+004

+0.10

+0.15

Sweden

02/01

5000

AA+

103.154

126

+602

+0.10

+615

Greece

11/08

6750

BBS

111745

408

+0.03

+618

+683

w sunuMmuiLS

ATS 1M17

5500

AAA

106051

402

+604

+002

+004

BB-

04AM

6000

AAA

105085

407

+604

+005

+626

Euroftra

12/09

502S

AAA

107042

4.71

+605

+009

+008

Wgrid Bank

044)5

7.125

AAA

117.038

192

+003

♦611

+631

m unures

EOF

10/03

3.750

nft

100057

152

+004

+005

♦0.19

TffCO

tram

4.750

AA

101391

181

-606

+601

+648

Oitarac Hydro

03/08

6375

A+

104030

401

+004

+624

+000

Honk Hydro

nun

7050

A

101055

300

-0.03

+606

♦658

HWMCIALS

Bad Wirtl

02/10

6375

AAA

106093

4.67

+607

+0.32

+047

0KB

09*17

6750

AAA

110004

401

+0.03

+000

+0.43

Credit Load

044)8

6250

AA+

104046

409

*604

+623

+658

Abbey Nta

01 AH

5000

AA-

100.476

404

+605

+008

+001

MDUSTRULS

UMfewr

iani

5125

AAA

103039

149

+002

+009

+638

McDntads

03/06

5125

AA

104.134

406

+604

+625

+655

Rife Morris

06/08

5625

A

103061

5.13

+0.04

+000

+1.12

BAT H Rn

07/06

5376

A-

102164

501

+003

+604

+106

PHHDBR0E Rhein Hype

12/01

65m

n/a

106540

303

-003

+604

+002

Eunhypo AG

01/04

6000

n/e

106719

169

-001

+0.16

+002

Bayer VErcftra

0106

6000

n/a

111.460

405

+000

+0 27

*020

Depta

07/08

4.750

n/a

102.802

407

+001

+009

+006

KOH TB00

Sedan

M07

10.125

B+

1T50H)

622

-O0I

-214

+204

CdtTdean

11/07

8075

n/a

106233

707

+005

+003

+199

bnpress Mettl

D5OT

9.575

B

116750

743

+008

-105

+155

Rainy Cowreau

07JO5

IQ 000

B+

97000

1804

+611

-671

+603

StalM Start rate

Sara; knsacta DntaT Mtnmarai

These securities have not been and will not bo registered under the US Securities Act of 1933. All o /these securities having been sold, this announcement appears as a matter of record only

The Global Offering ot shares In Benca NaiiorudB del Lavoro has been promoted by the Italian Government through the Italian Treasury

January 1999

2,655,553,875

j£)BNL

Banca Nazionale del Lavoro

1,115,135,192 Ordinary Shares

JOINT GLOBAL COORDINATORS

Banca Nazionale del Lavoro S.pJL

MEDIOBANCA Banca di Credfto Finanziario S.pJL

Schraders

Italian Public Offering

661 ,774,000 Shares

Banca Nazionale del Lavoro S.pJV, MEDIOBANCA

Banca di Credito Finanziario S.pA.

Banca Commerciale ttaliana S.pA

Banca di Roma S.pA

Caboto Sim S.pA (Gruppo Intosa)

UniCredito Italiano

San Paolo-1 Ml S.pA

Banca Fideuram S.pA

Banca Monte del Paschi di Siena S.pA

Banca Mediolanum S.pA

Italian Institutional Offering

174,936,192 Shares

MEDIOBANCA

Banca di Credito Finanziario S.pA.

Banca Nazionale def Lavoro S.pA Schraders

J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.

Albertini & Co. SIM

Banca Commerciale ttaliana S.pA

Banca di Roma S.pA

Caboto Sim S.pA (Gruppo Intesa)

Euromobiiiare S.I.M.

AFV-Milla & Co. SIM Rasfin SIM S.pA.

UniCredito Italiano

International Institutional Offering 225,525,000 Shares

Schraders

Warburg Dillon Read

J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.

BBV Interactivos

BT Alex. Brown International

Cazenove & Co.

Fox-Pitt, Kelton

ABN AMRO Rothschild

CAJB Investment Bank

Dresdner Kleinwort Benson

MEDIOBANCA - Banca df Credito Finanziario S.p A

U.S. Institutional Offering 52,900,000 Shares Schraders Lehman Brothers

J.P. Morgan & Co.

BT Alex Brown Salomon Smith Barney

3le

ate. Since '6s been 3f which

e profes. her shift

Is going Vovotny, does not or a pro- present next io

initially :*out 400 eactioti

bng a

mil. By itribute in.

rts are armed ubstan- time or

et was 1.9 per : prod- and is it next

:his is ;I and ere is ocure- s the ed to omes- light next

20

FINANCIAL times

•V' -.V: .■'fV''

WHDKESDAY MARCH:lCf i9^9 .J*

PDVSA issue faces difficult market

INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS

Greenspan comments buoy Treasuries

fhi»e'

BENCHMARK BONDS

By Arkady Ostrovsky and Khozon Merchant in London and John Latoate In New York

By Raymond Colilt ki Caracas

Petrbleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). tbe state oil com- pany that is seeking to raise $lbn in tbe international capital markets aver the □ext few weeks, is expected to face tough market condi- tions due to Venezuela’s sov- ereign risk and the depressed oil price.

"I'm sure PDVSA can place the paper but it will be at a higher cost than it did last year." says Franklin San tare Hi. senior analyst with Duff and Phelps, the credit rating firm.

PDVSA's new board of directors, appointed at the beginning of last month, approved a Si bn bond issue, but officials say the amount is only half its total borrow- ing requirements, and are hoping a second issue will be scheduled if the first is well received by the market

PDV Finance, an offshore investment vehicle, last May issued a total of Si.Sbn in five tranches priced between 88 and 163 basis points over US Treasuries with maturi- , ties between five and 30 1 years. These were backed by PDVSA's expected payments 1 from clients. j

DCR last December down- graded PDV Finance's notes from A to A-. after also downgrading the country's long-term foreign currency debt rating from BB- to B-*-.

It argued that "tbe struc- ture of the PDVSA Finance transaction mitigated but did not completely eliminate sovereign risk.”

As the country faced a severe shortage of foreign currency, the likelihood of sovereign interference with these types of transactions would increase, it said.

Soothing comments made by Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, prompted the US bond mar- ket to edge higher yesterday, as European bond markets continued to sell off.

Mr Greenspan said that despite strong US economic growth and low unemploy- ment "there have been no obvious signs of emerging inflationary pressures”.

Traders interpreted his words as a sign that the Fed might be less keen to cut interest rates than feared.

Mr Greenspan also said productivity gains were expected to continue. His comments came as new fig- ures on productivity were released, showing that in the fourth quarter of 1998 pro- ductivity was revised to a 4.6 per cent rise from the previ- ously reported 3.7 per cent

The tight labour market could prompt companies to spend more on technology and less on labour, analysts said.

US Treasuries edged higher at midday. The 30- year benchmark band had gained & to 953 in early afternoon trading, sending the yield to 5J5S2 per cent Tbe 10-year note was up 3 at 96§. yielding 5-227 per cent and the two-year note was £ higher at 99g, yielding 5X84 per cent

European bond markets however ended lower yester- day, lacking encouragement from the European Central Bank. The spread between German bunds and US Trea- suries narrowed to 115 basis points during the day, hav-

ing peaked at 140 basis points few weeks ago.

The UK gilt market weak- ened in response to the Bud- get, which, analysts say, reduces chances of an inter- est rate cut

Kevin Adams of Barclays Capital, said: “Gordon Brown spent most of the budget giving away money, which means consumer spending is likely to be resil- ient and business confidence could go up." He said the monetary policy committee would fmd it harder to cut rates in this environment

This and the reduction in

borrowing requirement which could translate into the reduction of debt issu- ance prompted investors to sell off the short and long end of the gQt market The benchmark 10-year gOt June, future fell 0.74 to 115.63.

Japanese government bonds continued to weaken after their recent rally, evi- dence of nervousness ahead of a crucial Rank of Japan's monetary policy committee meeting cm Friday.

Ten-year JGB futures weakened 51 basis points in Tokyo and marginally less in London.

Rate v sparks JGB v

rise in

By Gasan Tfftt and Naoko Kakamae in Tokyo

Tepco launches €750m five-year bond

NEW ISSUES

By Khazem Merchant

Tokyo Electric Power, the world's largest privately owned electric power com- pany. yesterday became the first Japanese corporate to launch a euro-denominated bond. Tepco's offering con- tinues the recent rehabilita- tion of Japanese credits.

Investor concerns over the Japanese economy, which is in recession, have largely shut out domestic corporates from the debt markets. But sentiment towards Japan has improved, with the government tackling the troubled banking sector and addressing an anaemic economy.

In the past two weeks, sev- eral government agencies, such as Japan Export Import Bank, have successfully tapped tbe debt market.

Tbe five-year €750m issue, which was priced to yield 56 basis points over the 2004 OAT and tightened by 3 basis points, is the largest ever issue by Tepco in a European currency.

Paribas, joint lead man- ager with Industrial Bank of

BENCHMARK GOVERNMENT BONDS

Hrf an EJj; thg '.'A 05 Mown Yen to 9 ate CCU3J1 toe rad ■,*’£ y--J3 cag yM cftfi

512

5 £9 *0i5

3.19 *004

424 -0XU

3.23 *008

433 -006

524 *001

532 -001

350 -004

453 *OB4

306

435 *006

306 -0 02 382 *004

423 *007

5.12 -005

310 *003

393 *006

4 II *007 510 *005

036 -000

539 -004

-050 -5.18

-0.17 -435

324 *001

428 *005

*000 -140

♦025 -039

321 *002

3S8 *003

4 JO *004 527 +005

+012 -1J0

+0.16 -1.15

*027 —0.97

*034 -0.48

026 *006 032 *005

1.71 +007

262 *008 312 *004

422 «0jQ4

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-0.54 -025

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300 *001

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302 -002

459 *007

-006 -108 *028 -002 *003 -106

*059 -050

316 *0.02

449 *007

♦004 -134

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147 *006

2.19 -OCO

*005 -0-11

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4 79 *006

485 +006

4.54 *007

5.11 -flJE 5.78 -004

524 -005

509 -001

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London ctafa) * Mmr Tort n)U-<liy SmHi

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10 YEAR BENCHMARK SPREADS

Spread Spread

tofi

BU

VMd

as

Etna

w

T-amfc

ad

yield

*3

Etna

«

T-amds

tohaBa

5.70

♦107

*046

MeCWrtan*

406

*013

-008

Austria

4.41

+028

-0.83

New Zealand

505

+ 102

♦071

Batgkmi

4.32

♦0.19

-002

Norway

505

*002

-019

Canada

533

+■130

*009

Portugal

4.37

+004

-087

Deranarti

400

+0.37

-0.74

Span

4.42

*009

-082

FWand

434

+001

-0.90

Swafai

4.52

*039

-0.72

Franco

4.18

*005

-106

Sfatzariand

2.37

-1.76

-207

Germany

4.13

-

-1.11

UK

4.75

+062

-049

aeeee

8.12

+109

*0.68

US

504

+1.11

Inland

433

*020

-001

Oxsw. nuacm faadFT iteuujaai

Oil

431

+018

-093

Lendon cfatoig. * new Vote ctasM

Jip»

1.76

-237

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junolnd ytte l»rfc

EMERGING MARKET BONDS

Mar9 EUROPE

| ffa

CneBa

02AJ2

7000

888-

MR

1 r

2 r

Prtmfl

07/04

7 12S

BB8-

Russia

06/07

10000

n/a

3r

LATH AMBflCA

sa

Aigertta

09/77

9.750

BB

Sol

Bram

05/27

10.135

B+

SKl

1 Heda

05/28

11300

88

1 n

-

2 R

ASIA

3n

CMn

078E

7.750

888*

Gel

MfapMK

10/16

6750

BB*-

Kru

TlBfertd

04/07

7750

B8B-

to

AFMCA/MDDI0 EAST

Lebanon

07/00

9.125

ffi-

SnATi AMca

10AJ6

B375

BB*

Tiefay

09417

10000

B

BRADY BOMBS

Argentina

03/23

5.750

BB

Brad

M714

5.000

B*>

Mexico

12719

6050

B8

Venezuela

03/20

6750

B*

tottn etostag. toah USt 9x01 tPHTMto

BU

BM

Days

ChQB

Mai's

digs

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»

price

new

fal

riri

US

93 64 50

643

*657

+001

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1053071

692

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230300

47 84

-0.19

♦7.11

+4203

820600

1107

-0.02

+0.14

+B41

66.0000

15 45

-030

-on

+909

107 3000

1067

-an

-042

+613

990500

7.78

*001

*004

+259

920481

970

-0.05

+0.12

+4.34

961000

700

*604

-0.16

+2G9

1015211

633

-0.18

♦0.19

+109

5B.5573

-007

-0.70

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900380

11 71

-0.08

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+800

567500

908

-004

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+3.77

59 3750

>4 09

-003

-008

+8.78

765000

671

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+330

643750

11.18

-004

-0.17

+675

Simk xxmdfa OBtoTT tofaniJkn

Japan and WestLB. said the borrower was able to make cost savings over compara- ble domestically generated funding.

The Asian theme contin- ued with Hutchison Ports issuing a 15-year £3 25m bond, just a week after a successful debut euro-de- nominated issue by its par- ent. the Hong Kong-based conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa.

Hutchison Ports' key asset is the port of Felixstowe, the largest container port in the UK and the fourth largest in Europe. Its ports, which include Thamesport and Harwich, handle some 46 per cent of the UK's container traffic.

Bankers said Hutchison Ports opted for a sterling issue - instead of a euro issue like its parent - because it was a UK-based business with sterling fund- ing requirements.

The borrower was also keen to issue a longer-dated bond and accordingly pro- voked strong responses from its target investors - pension funds and insurance houses.

The bond was priced to

New international bond issues

us dollars

KIW international Franca

EUROSW

Ford Motor Credit Co(T) Lander No Six Tokyo Bactrtc Power Coffl Gtebaldrtve. Sn B. Snfftt Parmalat Finance Com Suncorp Metway*

PlreB and C Luwfl intasa Preferred IlfaJ HypoVaramabankJhJ Aak-CgerQ

Rep ol the PWBpptneaOq

STERLING Hutchison Pwta pic Abbey NaH Trey Swvreesfm)

SWISS FRANCS BNG

Amount

Coupon

m.

%

TOO

zero

Ibn

Gis)

750

405

750

4.00

490.75

toll

250

530

200

(Wri

150

6125

125

640(q)

100

4025

TOO

7375

50

BUOts)

325

0.75W

50

5375

150

200

zero 95.073 Mar 2000 005

Haaxa fnfemad&nal

lap 99/402 9B0B7R 10000 983 7 R 09 071 R 9S5GR 100.00 67.7DR 102430 100JJ75R

Jul 2004 Mar 2009 Mar 2004 Jun 2008 Mar 2009 Now 2001 Apr 2009 undated Feb 2009 Apr 20C5 Sep 2004

/afflVdiSf!

+27SJ*JanCS;

•tSyariS?

+e$&UonC3! i TpSfury^

CSFB00hfH2T4M«iffl ABM'Cmmrz/TIG/VVeaiLB Q3JVPar2uB/WestUB Deutsche Sank Meni3 Lynch

CnawflUartaurg DR MbrSa/RasftaXMCredltt Goldman Sachs 8GL

Asa-Cger

Deu3che/JPM/Warbuig

REG OS Gfcfaai Markets

2.00 10120 Dec 2003 2430

tYarturg QEan Read

Final tern®. non-calaWe unless stated. YtaW spread (ever relevant government bend) as Scinch suppled Sy teas manager. 5 Floating -rate note, ft fixed re-ofler price; fees shown at re-effer level, of Pnoea away 47-Mtn arer She STAN, b) Secured on German retaS auto loans originated by Cologne branch at FCE Bank PU. a eubsesmy ct Fc n Meter Cred! Co. A* fila 69 yre. blj 1-mth Eifftoor +2-ibp. b2) Junior class: £2tL5m. 5.1 yrS, 1-ME *0Gbp, per. e) 3-nnh Sirtbcr +3Qbp. d) CaSabte from 7/10*00 a higher of par of formula, e) Spread refcnes to German govt bends irSsss steted. f) Spread re French gevr bonds, g) caBabie rei coupon dates from 30/3/04 at par. h) Fungs** wtth CAOOn. Plus 21 days accrued 'j Rederepwn finked to any JaJMn DJ Euro Sloxx 50 index, k) €300m launched 4/3/99 was increased to CSSCtr. !} Lncsg is! couscn. ra) Pjrsfcte «Ab 5300m. Pius 79 days accrued. re Fungible with SFrSOCm. Plus 140 days accrued. sp Cuaswty. si Shcn us coupon.

yield 193 basis points over the relevant gilt, tightening from a level of 200 basis points indicated during a roadshow in Scotland and London- The bond narrowed by 2 basis points.

Ford, the US carmaker launched its debut euro bond, with a €lbn offering maturing over 5‘: years.

Bankers say the Ford issue, wbich is expected to be priced today at 47-46 basis points over the French BTAN, could signal a small rally in euro-denomi- nated issuance by US borrowers.

For US borrowers, the euro market has been rela- tively expensive to access.

But the situation has eased in recent days as euro swap spreads - the rate at which ftrari rate money is swapped for floating rate money - have widened while dollar spreads have remained sta- ble, correcting an imbalance that has dissuaded US bor- rowers from issuing in euros.

Yields oh long-term Japanese government bonds yesterday rose sharply after a warning from tbe Bank , of Japan governor that he expected long-term interest rates to rise again soon.

Government suggestions of an imminent tightening of bond trading regulations also damped the bond mar- ket, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year govern- ment bond climbed 8 basis points to 1-7 per cent.

Comments made in parlia- ment by Masaru Hayami. Rank of Japan governor, were interpreted as a sign that be did not expect the Rani; to take further radical steps to ease monetary pol- icy when its policy board meets on Friday.

However. economists pointed out that the Bank, was still Holding intensive internal discussions about policy ahead of Friday's meeting. And although Mr Hayami has ruled out any direct underwriting of JGB&, some officials expect that some less drastic measures may still be adopted in the coining weeks.

In particular, Friday’s meeting is likely to consider introducing interest rate tar- gets for three-month money or relaxing rules on bank reserve requirements.

Yoshito Sakakibara, econo- mist at Goldman Sachs, said; “I think Mr Hayami is sig- nalling that the Bank remains against underwrit- ing JGBs.”

But the recent surge in long-term interest rates has been welcomed fay some life insurance companies, which

as a sector, control some YiSO.OQObn of assefer.;

“We have teen increasing our duration in Japanese: bonds since longterm yfcSds have gone up,” said Takashl Kawashima, manager feittce investment planning deport meat at Dai-ichi Mutual. Japan's second laxg^t lSg^ insurer.

“As a life insurance ccan-"‘ pany with fixed liabilities, higher long-term interest, rates are beneficial “to usin/ the medium- to long-run. As. ; a result, we have teen .hay- ing more 10-year government bonds. And we wilL to 'cohr' tinue to do so, if loog-term rates continue ' to trend' upwards.” . .j?'"1

Bond yields were yester- day also dented as tradterif warned that the Japan Secu- rities Dealers Association,- : the industry watchdog, appeared poised to mmpose a rule requiring ail trades td be conducted within 2 per cent of the market price.

The JSDA, which abol- ished the rule hr December,- . said that nothing ted tieen- deddeti. However, in recent weeks the JSDA has come, under pressure to reimpose the rule since there ted been a dramatic increase in the . practice of “price adjust- ment". or conducting bond trades at artificial prices to conceal losses.

This prompted foreign ait-, icism that the JSDA was in effect encouraging trading practices that did not meet global compliance standards. _• And senior Finance Ministry •" officials have consequently teen pressing the JSDA to reimpose some form of con- trols to boost Tokyo's repu- tation as a global financial centre.

BOND FUTURES AND OPTIONS

Ranee

US CORPORATE BONDS

INTERNATIONAL BONDS

Davs Mtfts Serf

DqfE to-4 Spread

wonauu. euro bow Rimes wtti ci 00,000

open Seflpra QBnge tflgti Lot* Est Wl Open ml Mar 11005 109.77 -028 11036 10141 37206 71539

LONG 1HW EURO BOMB OFITOHS (MATT)

Strike

CALLS -

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puts

Price

to

Jai

Sep

to

Jun

Sep

97

D02

.

(LIB

338

.

333

»

-

-

009

437

-

4.43

99

-

0.04

637

-

537

100

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687

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637

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Gemrany

NOTOUIL GBWAN Bum Rnuns (Dm 01B50500 100BIS Of100%

Open

Sett price

Dongs

Ufa

EaL ml

Open wl

11339

11303

-007

11304

11207

806083

607,450

.GERMAN BUND (B0BL) HJTOHB

(DIB) DM250000 100thaoMDO%

Open

Sea price

Ctrange

High

Low

ESL id

Open ML

10649

10640

-0.02

10800

10622

202009

220,520

Mar 8

Bed

(MB

CU*D

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07.02

735

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1043391

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+500

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08/25

700

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9651B2

7.12

-007

+0.18

+153

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0508

600

888

1115498

632

-003

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♦104

TKMNUIX

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05/07

675

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117.1781

605

-004

+027

+677

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0802

735

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1019436

5J4

-0X8

+032

♦504

CNARa

01/18

695

A-

320926

706

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+207

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0409

635

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1001229

557

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♦100

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0502

675

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103.4827

653

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08/21

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A-

1315260

690

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+131

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10634C3

683

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102.1038

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1367880

616

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1181603

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613

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US INTEREST RATES

Latest Ttasur Bffls as) Bond Wate

One nena - Tm tear

Rtmaiata 1\ Trie menu - Wreejear

BmbrkaanM 6h Dnenofli 481 ntajear

FwUnb^. 44» a rarfh 470 10-jra

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Change

■029

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11271

6100000

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11109

Open

Sett (Mas

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Hfltt

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to

11555

11619

-038

11684

116®

Jun

9731

9686

-

9731

9731

UK BONDS

FTSE Actuaries Government Securities

UK indices

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Mar 10705 -019

Jim 10705 -019

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to 11554 115.08 -008 115SB 11010

Jun 11650 11503 -a74 11608 115A0

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1267S

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1.79

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27307

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149103 4230

22551

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309

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406

675

16300

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249

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43428 73380

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4.88

401

619

479

4.73

602

4.78

471

508

478

4.71

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3.16

629

616

352

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115

2.14

958

214

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204

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137 300 206 . 7.73

108 1309 108

108 072 107 209

108 17.10 108 206

100 11.85 100 204 -

Strike

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- CAUS - Sep

Jm

Sep

11500

109

253

136

1.®

1TS0

150

227

147

2.14

116®

135

203

1.72

240

11650

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NOTIONAL UMG THU) JAPANESE GOVT. BOND FUTURES (LBTQ nlttn lOOto* ct 100%

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FINANCIAL TIMES

WEDNESDAY MARCH 10 1999

21

CURRENCIES & MONEY

Chinese whispers warn of

MARKETS REPORT

By ftVefanie Carroll and Alan Beattie

China raised interest rates yesterday for local accounts held in US and Hong Kong dollars, sparking rumours that the renminbi might be devalued.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOCl raised the interest rate for one-year US dollar deposits from 3.75 per cent to 4.4875 per cent.

But the PBOC denied reports that it has pulled together an informal team to look at a possible renminbi devaluation.

One analyst from a hank in London said markets had quickly come to the conclu- sion that the rumours were without substance, and bad behaved calmly.

He said the interest rate rise was not a surprise move, and showed confi- dence in the local currency more than a fear of currency

flight by investors.

Gene Frieda, analyst at the economics consultancy 4Cast, said he believed the devaluation rumour had started partly because the PBOC has held back crucial information.

Of particular interest are last year’s unreleased bal- ance of payments data, and the bank's foreign exchange reserves, he said.

Mr Frieda added that the PBOC has a very strong aversion to losing any of its reserves despite its large currency stockpDe.

The yen strengthened against the dollar yesterday as comments from the Rank of Japan diminished the chances of another Japanese monetary policy loosening in

POUND IN HEW YORK

Mar8

-■Latete—

-Pm. dose-

tape*

13185

130BS

i mm

13178

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3mth

13170

13070

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13179

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the very near term.

Masaru Hayami. the Bod's governor, said yesterday that he expected interest rates to rise over time. JGB yields rose sharply on the comments, made during the Asian trading session, and the yen climbed against the dollar.

At one point the dollar fell to Y12Q.6, its lowest level for around a week. But it recov- ered later on the fears of an impending Chinese devalua- tion. and for the rest of the London session traded above Y121 against the yen.

Mr Hayami’s comments confirmed for many that thin Friday's BoJ board meeting was unlikely to see any fur- ther radical moves to pump more money into the Japa- nese economy.

But Joe Prendergast, bead of global foreign exchange research for Credit Suisse First Boston, said it was careful to distinguish between comments made for financial markets’ consump-

DoUar

A^ratfteyanflfjwS)

124

Lion and those aimed at domestic consumers.

“With an ageing popula- tion dependent on interest income, the Bank or Japan has to strike a balance between saying that the monetary easing Is signifi- cant and saying it is tempo- rary,” he said.

Cameron Crise, currency strategist at Warburg Dillon Read in London, said the

devaluation

market was disappointed with Hayami's comments, which seem to indicate that he is still worried about inflation. "But the opacity of Japanese policy-making pre- vents any dear conclusion being drawn," he added.

Mr Crise said that that the policy uncertainty meant fewer investors were willing to take long-term positions in the yen.

"This is making the yen a very shortterm flow-driven currency,” he added.

Sterling trod water yester- day despite the potentially important effects of the UK Budget

The pound remained fixed

OTHER CURRENCIES

*fcrs e s

Cadi fe 560*09 - 56028? 34 JS70 - 34X780

»om an .215 - 371*1 zjsmo - 220240 tan 4345J0 - 4802030004? - 300040 taeft 0.4925 0.4329 03051 - 03052 Pern 5.4908 5.4994 34010 -34050 POM 63333 - 63457 3.3230 - 3.3290 tell 37*40 37.7287 23X300 - 2X3600 UAE 53292 - 5S32B 33777 - 15732

just below $1.61 for most of the day ahead of the annual UK Budget, delivered towards the end of the Lon- don session. Traders expec- ted few surprises in the Bud- get Only a downgrading of the government’s growth forecast or an announce- ment on European monetary union were expected to move sterling significantly.

In the event neither hap- pened and the pound moved little on the day.

The Thai central hank yes- terday tried to tighten restrictions on dollar/baht swaps to prevent speculators from taking advantage of tbe large difference between on- and off-shore forward swap premiums.

Tbe Thai central bank asked traders to stop selling tomorrow/nert day swaps to overseas customers to restrict the amount of baht in offshore markets. This will make it harder for inves- tors to sell the currency.

POUND SPOT FORWARD AGAINST THE POUND

DOLLAR SPOT FORWARD AGAINST THE DOLLAR

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31345

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802060

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60.4748

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372850

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373000

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1 lam M Mr i BWOta apna* »«• nws»a am riaa m tariSm ritemmm maq tarn emamar sb amriaatei ma oosa

TOO US

f SOI cm xr Jftr ttr t tdftMmaitrlteamignwnaa TteMUlatef rte tarn teaen date* am a 343 MMfiO a team ri Xte gals tern m BMtar amdk aa Ootv cam am a* m tas m ad m item. ik. mm a On m pate IS cmat it *tate nfete tea Iter B Bm mp tel rite, m «ri tete aat mi n ta tat m m n m Mte n dated tarn he ■MmunOlS CUSM snr m Rm»c RUE onto ten am n mM M » FT * BAJ book fe eteteM ms pd«M n H ten mt ten utekite M larte s tmtomiTxm

1 WORLD INTEREST RATES |

MONEY RATES

■arS

Onr

Ore

few

Sh

Ore

LonO

Dh

flwo

man

FTI#tt

rites

jmr

HB.

iW

rat

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3

3;

H

3i

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100

3.00

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tS

1M

n

1H

T5

1.00

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US

<s

4S

48

s;

S14

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450

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&

H

M

Vi

i

-

050

-

$ UBQR BBA London

5%

-

4J

5

-

-

-

os DMMr CDs

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4.72

4.77

433

5.01

-

-

-

Earn Urikod Da

-

«

34

-

-

-

SDR Itfod Ds

-

3Vi

(4

-

-

B8A Euro Ubor

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H

H

31

34

-

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-

Eva Eninr

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1M5

mi

3364

-

-

-

HJWA

3.03

-

-

-

-

-

amomA

30232

-

-

-

-

~

fe tee BfiA Limdon ate. tad ri um

ten Mite »

te ante tamj mb. USB as. on s ton um npem w

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY RATES

Mar 9

Shat

7

On

Raw

Sh

Ore

Ksnn

nrife*

matt

mirths

manha

new

Euo

3i -

34-25

34-34

3K-34

34-23

34-3

Osi* Krone

34 -

3i-34

3H-34

34-33

31-38

3 S - 33

StofioQ

Bi-SM

55-55

55-58

S-5i

5S-5M

53

Saris Fm

W-1

1H- It

14-U

1H- W

14 -li

Itt - 13

Qretoi Defer

4fl -4g

5i-4H

Si-4g

Si-43

5ft -43

54 - 5ft

USDofer

48-48

4JS-4B

- 4J

5J -5

54 - S5

Japreese Yn

Ji-i

4-4

a-i

4-4

1 - a

i ' *

Asbajang

H - h

- 1H

T* 1^

2% - ift

214-2

H4 - 2ft

Shot tann iriaaaa

CM III M 16 Bfer tari Yrii. 0BBS tte a*r nedca

TUBS MWHH EOWMOB FUTURES [MATT)PaB Marta* ritejg «B

Open

Soi price

Chanpe

fete

Lew

Ed. w*

Open It

Mar

9602

96 B2

-

9092

9601

7,798

38026

jun

97X6

97.06

-

9706

9604

10,776

27030

M TTM3E MOHIM EDRB0R FUTURES (LBTE) Elm 100-ram

Open

Sefi price

□range

fete

Uw

Ed. vte

Open U.

Mar

96020

96020

-

96030

96020

14434

141075

07X770

177055

-0X770

97085

S7X740

49078

157378

Sep

97X60

97065

-0010

97.100

97050

47416

121793

Ore

98030

98025

+0.005

960*5

96.785

12895

97895

THREE M0HTH EUH0 UBOR RflNRES (UFQ €1m 100-rate

Open

San price

Orange

fete

Low

Ed. *oi

Dpan ML

Mar

96025

98.907

+0

96025

96020

1300

118537

97.075

97.055

-0010

97075

97050

1078

107381

97090

97065

-0010

97090

97.070

536

93655

Dec

96035

9602S

+OX7Q5

96095

96000

2079

86108

a embor orraas aJ+D eua ioo-im

SOUra CALLS PUTS

ana mi

Price

Mar

Jtil

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jon

Sep

Dec

96875

9700D

0056

0006

tt.125

aiao

0.130

0X710

0085

0070

0.115

0006

an 25 97258

0

0

0035

0X775

0X770

pHVi

0030

0080

0495

at at nat cm jasjo

Mo ttfa 4m re. cafc areas Pm 11SM2

mag MOUTH BOBO jfeCB OWatB gJTE) Cite 100 -rata

6trta CALLS PHIS

Price

Mar

Joi

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sap

D9C

90875

97000

0085

0.180

0.130

0210

0030

0.115

0205

OWS

97125

87250

0020

0X775

O07O

0.110

021$

0260

0495

0.405

to. ml bal can 523 res a nnkw &f* w, cm 27SW7 pub iroieb

TWEE HOKIH EURO SWISS FRANC fOlURB JLPFEJ SFnm 100 -rate

Open

Sdl price

Change

Mar

9B0OO

98000

-

Jim

91510

98000

+0X710

Sep

96290

98400

-

Dae

91130

98.130

+0010

fete

Low

EsL Mi

Opea Bfl-

98020

98080

0986

s van

98520

98470

13504

73964

98420

98380

3247

41008

98140

98110

1124

I56Z5

ims MONTH EUROYEN FUTURES JJFFE) YlOOtn 100 -trie

Opai Sett pits C&anp Ntfi Low BL mV 0pm ML Iter 99.78 0 0

kf] 99.78 -031 0 0

Sep 90.76 -0.02 0 0

UHE teun ai» awed an APT

EURO SWISS FRANC OPTIOWS flJEFE) SFtlm 100-rate

ante calls purs

Price Iter an Sep tear Jin Sep

98750 0010 0375 0.100 0.160 0325 0.450

98S75 0 0275

to. «L am cm o Pm is» pib*m mts wen n. can ana Pm jtis

CROSS RATES AND DERIVATIVES

EXCHANGE CROSS RATES

Mar B

BFr

DKr

F ft

DM

K

L

fi

m

Es

Pti

SKr

Sft

£

a

S

r

C

(B R)

100

1842

1626

4048

1052

4800

5.463

2120

4970

4120

22.13

3054

1.672

4092

2099

3270

2479

(DKi)

5427

10

8025

2031

1.060

2805

2-965

1101

®.7

mg

i2xn

2.146

0007

2221

1.486

1770

1245

(FFf)

6120

11.33

10

2082

1201

2952

3260

1304

3050

253.7

1301

2.431

1.028

2517

1.660

201.4

1.525

pm

30.63

3000

3254

1

0.403

9900

1.127

4273

1020

6507

4065

0015

6345

6844

0057

6708

0011

ro

5122

9.437

8329

2.483

1

2459

2.798

1008

254.6

2112

1124

1025

0066

2096

1283

1670

1270

feiy'

(L)

2.083

0284

0239

0.101

QXJ41

100

0.114

0442

1025

6093

6461

6082

6035

6085

0X156

6025

0.052

PMdW lands*

1821

3273

2077

0.828

0257

BULB

1

3081

9657

7500

4X62

6724

0206

6749

6494

59.96

0.454

(NK»

<7.17

8091

7070

2287

0^1

2264

2077

10

234.4

1940

1644

10®

6788

1030

1273

1540

2.189

(Es)

20.12

1707

3272

0076

0293

9650

1XJ99

42B6

100

po oq

4.454

6798

6336

0023

0043

6501

6499

Spain'

(Piaj

3424

4.467

3043

1.175

0.473

1164

1.324

5.140

1200

100

5266

6959

6405

0092

0054

79.42

6601

(SKr)

45.18

8224

7247

2.190

0882

210

2.468

9078

2240

1862

10

1.786

6755

1049

1219

1460

1.120

2529

4060

4.113

1226

0494

1214

1282

5262

1257

1042

5098

1

6423

1.035

6683

8205

0027

(E)

59.82

11.02

9.728

2901

1.188

2872

8268

12B8

2972

2460

1324

2286

1

2449

1015

1960

1.483

(CS)

24.44

4.502

3073

1.185

0477

1173

1235

5.180

121.4

1000

5.409

6966

6408

1

6660

8604

6606

37.05

8027

6.02S

1.796

0.723

1778

2024

7055

184.1

1520

620T

1.4®

0019

1.51B

1

121.4

0018

(ff

30-53

5025

4964

1.480

0.596

1465

1068

6.472

1517

12S0

6757

1207

0510

1249

0024

100

6757

Euo

1*}

4034

7.433

6260

1056

0.788

1936

2204

agg

2000

1664

8029

1095

6674

1051

1089

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FINANCIAL. TIMES WEDNESDAY MARCH 10 1 W

COMMODITIES & AGRICULTURE

Increase in demand seen for platinum

China urged to boost gold reserves

By Gillian O'Connor Mining Correspondent

Platinum group metals are providing one of the few glimmers of light in other- wise depressed metals markets.

Platinum itself bad a run-up last month, but the real action has been in two important associated metals, palladium and rhodium, both of which have trebled in price (in US dollar terms) since the start of 1997.

The buoyant markets have also helped share prices of platinum producers. The platinum group metals' strength, stems from its use for cleaning up vehicle exhaust emissions in autoca- talysts. More stringent stan- dards. particularly in the US, mean demand is set to rise.

Shares of South African platinum producers, whose profitability has been helped by a weaker rand, have been especially buoyant. Impala Platinum, for instance, has risen by about 140 per cent since the start of 1997. Mer- cury Asset Management now has over 13 per cent of its £74 m tSilymi Gold & Gen- eral unit trust invested in South African platinum shares.

Supply of the metals is already tight, particularly in palladium, where Russia is the largest producer. Exports from .Norilsk, in Arctic Rus- sia. are plagued by physical and bureaucratic delays, although a new long-term export licence for palladium was last week said to have been agreed.

Worldwide demand for pal- ladium was 3.2m ounces in iy98. about 3m more than new production, according to Johnson Mat they, and sup- ply deficits are expected to continue into *J»0. Analysts disagree whether Russia can or will plug the gap.

BASE METALS

LONDON METAL EXCHANGE

iPrtces from flnuiganaJcd Meal Tradngl AlHMUSUM, 99l7 PURITY IS per Tunnel

“Since 1994. Russia has sold about 10m ounces from its stocks to balance increas- ing demand. However, the size and availability of the remaining stocks remain a stale secret and leaves the market in uncertainty." says the latest strategic report from Canadian researchers Metals Economics Group.

Expectations of strong demand have already prompted leading palladium producers to expand produc- tion. both through new mines and expansion at existing mines. MEG esti- mates how these expansion plans will add to supply as follows:

The 14 major palladium producing mines could increase their capacity from 5.2m ounces in 1999 to 5.6m ounces in 2001. This estimate | assumes no increase at Nor- ilsk, whose capacity is left I unchanged at 2.5m ounces. Capacity is expected to remain unchanged at Inco's Ontario division and Gold Fields' Northam mine. AH others are expected to rise, with notably large capacity increases at North American Palladium's Lac Des Isles Mine (up 120,000 ounces to 2QO.OOQ ounces) and BHP/ Zimplats' Hartley mine (up 80.000 ounces to 110.000 ounces).

Six potential new mines, most with start-up dates of 2001 or earlier, could add another 800,000 ounces to annual palladium production capacity. The three largest are: Stillwater’s East Boul- der (384.000 ounces); Zim- plats' Ngezi (134,000); Amplats’ Bafokeng-Rasi- mone (100.000).

Another five projects are at an early stage of explora- tion.

Strategic Report from Metals Economics Group. PO Box 2206. Halifax. Nova Scotia, Canada B3J 3C4

By James Kanflng fat DeQbig

China should triple the ratio of gold in the foreign exchange reserves, which have become over-invested In US dollars, according to a recommendation by a senior official at the national gold bureau.

The allocation of China’s $l45bn foreign exchange reserves, the second largest in the world, has the power to sway currency markets.

The proposal to boost Chi- na's gold reserves bucks the recent trend of disposals of gold holdings by central banks particularly in Europe, but if Beijing takes up the recommendation, it could offer support for flag- ging international gold prices.

But the suggestion from a gold industry official also underlines how gold has lost some of its shine in China, where public consumption

has slumped over the past five years and government demand stagnated.

Liu Shanen, deputy direc- tor of the gold economic development research centre at the ministry of metallurgi- cal industry, warned that . excessive US weighting of the foreign exchange reserves could “mean bold- ing national security hostage to the US dollar”.

The real extent of Chinese gold holdings is a state

secret. According to the pub- lished figures, China's hold- ings in gold have been steady at around 337 tonnes for more than a decade.

That represents a ratio of 29 per cent of the foreign exchange reserves, signifi- cantly lower than countries such as the US (71 per cent) and France (4? per cent) according to World Gold Council figures.

The published figures are treated with great scepticism

by- the industry, which esti- mates the central bank bolds perhaps as much as 1,000 tonnes of gold.

Mr Liu, who has submitted his proposal to the managers of China's exchange reserves but has no influence over' their decision, says there are doubts over the possible "overvaluation of the US dol- lar", the volatility of the Jap- anese yen and the "uncer- tainties*’ that surround the infant euro.

Venezuelan coffee industry perks up

The Caribbean country has renewed its focus on the crop, says Raymond Colitt

As Venezuela’s oil Indus- launched a technical assi: try, the principal source tance programme aimed a of foreign exchange, is increasing productivity b

As Venezuela’s oil indus- try, the principal source of foreign exchange, is hit by record low petrol prices and production cuts, the Caribbean nation is rediscovering what was once Its leading cash crop - coffee.

For decades, the country's coffee industry had been overshadowed by oiL Farm- ers abandoned their coffee plantations for more lucra- tive jobs in the cities, and coffee production plummeted as oil output soared.

But today, a coffee renais- sance is under way, as coffee growers are boosting produc- tivity and quality and stag- ing a gradual comeback an international markets.

According to Gustavo Mendoza Sanchez, managing director of Foncafe. the state coffee fund, production for the harvest ending this Sep- tember is to reach a 50-year high of 19m quintals (198m 60kg bags). That is up from only 19m quintals last year.

The industry's tumround began in 1992, when Foncafe relinquished Us monopoly on distributing coffee and fixing prices. The deregu- lated sector attracted fresh Investment capital.

In addition, Foncafe

launched a technical assis- tance programme aimed at increasing productivity by replacing old coffee bushes and applying new produc- tion techniques.

"We are now beginning to see the results of those efforts," says Mr Mendoza.

Unlike other coffee export- ers, Venezuela traditionally consumed much of its best coffee domestically. At 780,000 bags a year for a pop- ulation of 22m. per capita coffee consumption has been among the. highest in the world.

Yet; a prolonged economic crisis and slumping con- sumer demand has forced producers to look for over seas markets.

For example. Antonio Ruiz, a farmer in the west- ern state of M6rida. has become a model for the rest of the industry. Production yields at his Los Canales plantation reach a record 94 bags a hectare because of high density planting and the frequent pruning of trees.

“1 was tired of the local buyers, who paid little and late. Now I have a better income." he says, though he admits Venezuelan coffee producers still have some

way to go in convincing for- eign buyers of quality and reliability in their delivery.

“Without the intermedia- tion of Foncafe, we can deal directly with traders and get better deals." says Jose Yanez. head of an associa- tion of L600 coffee producers in Portuguesa.

The incentive to export is apparent. While a 69kg bag of premium washed coffee sells for 47,000 bolivars (SS1.5) in Caracas, it can fetch 62,000 bolivars (S107.5) in New York with shipping and handling cost of 85. says Javier Dominguez, a Caracas coffee trader.

However, not everyone has been able to overcome the domestic slump in demand.

Dionisio G6mez, a small producer in Merida, says be took out a loan to modernise his coffee plantation when interest rates rose dramatic-

ally and prices fell. “Not only am 1 short of cash to make the improvements that foreign buyers demand, but at -900 bolivars per pound. I'm earning 20 bolivars less than my production cost,” he says.

The biggest challenge for Venezuela’s coffee pro- ducers is accessing the international market and establishing a name for Ven- ezuelan brands, says Mr Dominguez. “We are still at a 10 per cent discount to N'ew York's spot market because our coffee is not known.’' he says.

There is also the continu- ous threat from la Broca, an insect that has affected much of neighbouring Col- ombia's production. It has been brought to Venezuela largely by contraband coffee from Colombia, and Foncafe

Precious Metals continued

SOLD C0MEX (100 Tray ut; S/trajr 0l)

GRAINS AND OIL SEEDS SOFTS

WHEAT UFFE (100 tomes: £ per tonne)

COCOA UFFE (10 tom* fitaMW

MEAT AND LIVESTOCK

UW CATTLE CHS KOJHSfls; CKES&ffl

has launched an Intense awareness campaign to limit its spread.

Still. Mr Mendoza says exports could exceed 600,000 bags for the season ending in September. This is still modest compared with neighbouring Colombia or Brazil but nearly four times the 160,000 bags sold abroad last year.

Indeed, be is confident Venezuela will regain its prestige on the international market.

The future of Venezuela's coffee industry could receive a further boost As part of its plans to diversify the econ- omy. the government is to stimulate agriculture via infrastructure projects and cheap loans.

“The recovery of the coun- try's coffee sector may well depend on these policies.” says Mr Ydnez.

I JOTTER PAD

Prospect of Opec deal lifts oil prices

jVUUFUQETS

By Robert Cacane and GiBian O’Connor

Oil prices finned yesterday, as one of the presumed hex- _ riers to another round of Opec production cuts was reported to have been civer- come in recent talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran. :

The price of Brent Blau), for April delivery was. quoted at $11.83 a barrel in late trading on London's International Petroleum . Exchange, 7 cents rip., bn.. Monday's close. :

Early losses were quickly clawed back after a r^ort suggested that Saadi Arabia^ Opec's dominant member,' had accepted a new basis from which to measure Iran’s production cuts.

Most analysts say another big Opec cut will he needed! to push prices substantially' ; higher. But as Philip Verfe-i ger, a US oil economist, points out in his “latest monthly report, history, sag-, , gests commodity restraint agreements are usually! only effective at raising^ prices when underlying;

. . demand is strong and economic conditions are good. Such a state of affaire does not exist today".

Alcan Aluminium warned yesterday that its first-quar- ter net Income was likely to be 50-60 per cent lower than In the 1996 fourth quarter,' but showed no inclination to . cut production. Similar sto- icism across the industry is the main reason analysts expect the LME price of alu- minium to continue weak. So far this year it is down about 8 per cent on its level at the end of 1996.

At current price levels a number of producers are not covering their operating - costs. But substantial fixed costs mean -that closure could leave them with even higher running losses.

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297.1

+06 2992

296.7 90 7.160

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7675

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Sep

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37i5

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379.0

3757

692 14.027

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3735

-27

375.0

3737

215

3,135

Od

3735

-27

-

-

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1711

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1.118 18177

M PALLADMI NYMEX (100 TiOfBt; Stray KJ

Mar

34700

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35

320

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348B0

-175 347.45 34370

112

2717

Sap

33860

-185

-

-

1

157

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147

3,135

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Mar

-47

5287

SKIP

75

2735

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524 J)

-48

5327

521.0

5853 48748

Jri

524J

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5337

5227

453 15,594

Sqi

5247

-4.7

533.0

5227

22

4200

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524.0

-4.4

5327

5237

160

6788

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523.7

-4.4

-

-

-

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Mar 25550 -5JJ0 2BZ70 2S60G 4553 2570

May 26575 -455 27250 26550 15.426 48.382

M 275.75 -4.00 28250 275.00 14.854 55.429

Sep 28850 -475 29300 28S25 1,735 5713

Ok 30050 -475 30640 30040 1.774 7,742

Mar 31040 -340 31450 31040 103 2574

Total 3R2B21225Z7

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Mo 21545 +145 21750 21340 4531 9785 May 22125 *050 22550 21975 44.1 27 140.488 Jri 22840 +075 23250 226.00 17051104*53 Sep 23475 - 237.00 23250 326 24751

Dec M50 -140 24540 24140 15435 60.305

Mr 25040 -140 25240 24850 830 7424

Total 043130387

N BAHAV UFFE (100 tan* £ per tome)

. COCOA CSCE <10 tame* Starnes)

i LEAH HOGS CUE >40.00015* '

Mar 1231 *3 1239 1220 20 266 Apr

May 1241 +3 1253 1226 1545 34705 Jon

Jri 1263 4-1 1274 1254 539 13721 JU

Sep 1287 - 1297 1283 138 7.665 Aug

Dec 1325 - 1333 1332 45 6424 Ocl

Mar 1360 - 1369 1352 53 6743 Dec

Total 2785 70466 Total

COCOA 8CC0) (SOffa/toroal MK

Mar 8 Price Pm. day Mar

Daly 97042 984.13 May

M GOFFS UFFE (5 tames; S/tonne) M

Aag

Mar 1720 - 1734 1712 282 7496 Total

May 1565 +15 1585 1581 1441 29.499

Jot 1573 +13 1573 1551 1443 9740

Sep 1571 +16 1571 1548 B2S 1050

MCKEL |S per Wnnel

Tetri 8A56 69747

Mar

7470

-

-

18

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4925-35

4930-35

4950-60

4990-5000

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4980-85

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May

S«P

■toe

Jm

Total

7470 -

75.00 -070 7725 -0.50 79.25 -070

-

-

163

35

- 303

20 639

Kerb close □pen nL Total it ay firmer M UN <5 per tomri

Close 5425-35 5350-55

Previous 5375-80 5315-20

Ugh/toW 5360/5310

AM Official 5390-400 5020-25

Kerb dose 5340-50

0pan mt n/a

Tote rfaBy uner n/a

zme, special high pate & pet tame)

Lateft Days Mica clangs Hgp 13.82 +0.19 1443 13 88 +0-15 14.07 1348 +0.12 14.05 1130 +110 1445 13.94 +0.10 14.05 1440 +4.12 1448

Low Vof bd

1136 97.317 109.1k 13.47 45,407 97.083 1150 22.166 68432 1347 8,187 33417 1163 3407 19441 1169 2450 15467 195788 581417

dose

1025-6

10358

Previous

1035-36

1044-45

Ugh/kw

1033/1027

AM Official

1024-5

1032737

hob ekoe

1032-3

Open JnL

Total data tanawr

nfe

COPPER, grade US pet Kernel

Close

13767-77

1404-5

Previous

1362-83

1380-90.5

Hightail

1408/1390

AM Widal

1373-3

1401-2

Kerb dose

1403-4

Open an.

rva

Total data tarmer rva

LME Aft) HflcU E/s raw: 1-60B0

LME ClmtiiH E/S rate 14110

Sort- 14168 3 rate 161 S3 Ernes l£153 9ms 16161

CHIBK 0U. PE (Mranel)

8pm B»f»

price change Mgh Lear Apr 11.82 +048 1149 11.49

May 1145 +046 12.10 1163

Jus 11)0 +044 1125 1140

Jol 1130 +0.13 1137 11.95

Aon 1119 -0.07 1219 1207

Sap 1223 -009 1226 1220

Total

HEATB6 00. HVfigX <42,000 U5 pfa;

Latest Day's

price efingg High I am Apr 36.00 +0.22 3840 35.10 :

May 3630 +0.19 3645 35A0

■tan 3660 +0.14 3640 3000

Jri 3720 +0.14 3730 36J55

Aug 37 90 +0.14 3645 3740

Sep 38.60 +004 3845 3840

VU Jnt

21,555 42584 21574 61740 6.879 41)4+ 1460 17485 211 7463 2045 5,688 ni» ala

oUSptaJ

SOYABEAK8 CBT (SjOOQfo min: tana/BOta l«M)

Mar 46440 +1.75 47040 461.00 5433 4.778

May 47240 +140 47840 47040 Z7042 61,781

Jd 48140 +1.50 48740 47845 6.467 44.122

Aag 48440 +1.75 490.00 48140 230 M.B8S

Sep 43840 +040 49340 464.50 235 5.150

Ho* 494-25 +140 50040 49140 3,751 25,162

Tote 46^86 15^485

SOTABEAH Ott. C6T (60.0006H: rate*)

Mar 1845 +040 1BJ7 1840 1218 2404

May 1841 +055 1944 1828 14.309 51,191

Jol 1948 +047 1942 1841 1329 32420

Aug 1943 +040 19.42 19.00 189 1767

Sep 1942 +047 19.60 1110 545 8.130

Oct 19.47 +0.65 19.70 1940 <4 4.780

Total 22/BI 138/01

SOTAOEAR HEAL GOT (100 tore S/tan)

Mar 1274 -17 1284 126.1 2427 5444

Mar 1720 - 1734 1712 282 7.696

May 1565 +15 1585 1561 1441 29v4»

Jot 1573 +13 1573 1551 1443 9449

Sep 1571 +16 1571 1548 B28 1050

fib* 1566 +16 1559 1558 26 M19

tea 1581 +16 - - - 430

Total on st.152

M COffff V CSCE (37,500fat cartsfltel

Mar 104.40 +140 10500 10345 39 539

Hay 106.15 +245 10740 1044010.762 24.058

Jlrf 10745 +245 10840 105.60 1.091 7.796

Sep 106.75 +140 11045 10740 369 4.660

Dec 11115 +145 11040 10925 147 1169

Mar 111.45 +1.45 112.10 110.50 34 704

Total 12/W2 40423

M COFFEE QCO) (05 cents/pamd)

Mar 8 Ptev. day

Comp, daly 8949 90.78

15 day mage 80.76 91.06

WWTE SQ6AH UFFE (50 tomes; S/fimnei

May 2064 +14 2062 SS44 1,473 43413

Aug 1964 +04 2005 197.1 824 12743

Od 1924 +04 1944 1914 474 10269

Dec 1927 +0.1 1952 1920 387 3495

l«r 1974 +04 200.1 1974 136 1104

Hay 198.4 +0.5 - - - use

Tefal 1294 54,705

suoAR ir csce miooons certs a#

Apr

4275C -0725 42750 42.175 4.107

15.028

Jon

64^0-0.150 55.1 CO 54750 2372

11297

Jri

55825 -0L125 5572 55.150

290

4801

Aag

58775 -0275 56.175 S.775

90

4.061

Oct

55.000-0.075 55700 54800

159

4.763

Dec

55JSO-0JZ5O 55400 55200

43

2702

Total

7087

42220

ram BELLES CUE HOTGOtas cens/lbst

Mar

50.025-0758 50500 49350

411

514

May

51800-0750 528Q0 S1JQ5

861

2832

Jo)

S1250 -0.376 S3 800 52.450

69

958

Aag

52825-0800 51900 52200

19

352

Total

1749

4096

For blue-chip indexes that covhr the 50 most liquid stocks.

e-mail ttouaston.CMi wwwno«.«mi

CROSSWORD

No.’9! 934’ 'Set by DARCY

LONDON TRADED OPTIONS

State prise S tana Calls— PaU

fir Jd fir Ji

High liter M tat 3840 35.10 22435 40,440 3645 35-40 7,373 23400 3640 3840 4.053 17420 3720 36J55 1.714 13212 3845 3740 1.069 10.579 3845 3840 2404 7434 41369158428

12&£

-1J

1310

128.1 12073 45790

May

581

+009

508

5.71 6061 70760

Jri

1300

-1.1

1332

1301

2210 37082

Jri

5.59

+006

5.71

574 4,037 46,321

Aug

1328

-03

1347

131.7

308

11236

Ocl

502

+006

602

580

1.351 27023

Sep

134.1

-1 A

1368

1337

294

9.108

Mar

671

+006

880

6.49

823 18,142

Oct

1353

-17

13EL3

1352

33

4.468

Man

688

+405

685

680

20 2,964

Tatal

18206 127063

Jri

687

+0.04

689

6.63

22 2.156

M POTATOES UFFE CO tomes £ per bam*

Total

i30xnea8BZ

284.0

-10

2870

2840

90

1863

M Conffifi NVCE ua.OOOte cenlaffiM

Apr

*»»

JI50

-80

3150

3150

4

40

Mar

6183

-325

6700

6100

66 1063

Jro

3250

-80

_

_

_

Hay

61.18

-026

6100

6085 8.674 24,767

Km

85.0

+50

_

_

_

_

Jri

60.45

-0.1 B

6000

60.15 3292 15.549

Mar

12S0

+70

-

-

-

-

Oct

59.70

-080

6020

59.70

36 1.774

M AUMMUM

1992%} LME n fa

mS

COPPER (Grade M LME

n/J

nfla

nfe

> COFTSUFFE

7500

1650 .1

1700

COCOA UFFE

900

925

950

a BRENT CRUDE PE

1050

1100

1150

LONDON SPOT MARKETS

CRUDE OIL FOB (per barren +or-

Oubai 51145-120 -022

ten) atari tfawn SU23-1.3I -0265

taBM Btari (Apr) 311-74-142 -0255

W.TJ. Si 3.79- j 41 r -0475

a M. PRODUCTS NWEprorapi oehery OF nane)

tv

Jri

tv

Jri

May

Jri

«>»

Jri

142

«2

i

57

92

24

i

89

43

13

i

12E

May

Jri

May

AS

15

36

47

51

9

25

66

66

5

19

sr

84

Apr

**¥

Apr

May

136

20

63

6

29

18

-

12

»1 1 e: ' .a. ..

, - TJT

,_- =

HBH GRADE IX1PPEH (C0MEX1 Set! D eft price change High * 6230 +040 6100 E

■r 624S +0.40 6320 t

ay 6110 +0.45 6170 i

n 63 55 +045 6345 E

I 6385 +0.45 64.40 (

a 5420 +0.45 64 40 f

Lter Vof Irt

6225 659 2225

62 £5 167 34U

62 55 4.769 38481

6360 22 1.840

63.75 285 9.713

64 A0 36 1.466

5,127 74420

PRECIOUS METALS

LONDON BIHLUQK MARKET WK83 ajptefl by h M Hpaqc/iKfi

OrtdfTrnv aa S price £ e □an 292+0-29270

Opentec 291 70-32.10

■Inning 61 291900 181

Maroon fix 292950 181

Day's Etgtl 293.W-2942D

Bars Low 291 79-39210

ftemaus cite 3930-.'8940 Ljco Lite Mean GaU Lending HaJea (Vs U3S)

1 montti .429 6 morfta .447

3 BjqnBB . 4 27 13 months 3.72

3 manttis 442

Star fix Ortaov ac. US ds equtv

Spcl 330.741 532.00

Star LereMnO taes I morfli . - -fc.DO 0 months

z maltha -2 00 12 monfli

3 rsonOo . ...- ..-2.00

Sprice 29120 -2K70 291 70-32.10

£ eqotv

Era equfir

291000

181609

268.414

291050 29l8D-2Ma> 291 79-39110 SSJO-OTJO

181886

269.107

M GAS EH. B»E (S/temta

Self Day's Open

price rawer H|p tar W U

Mar 11140 -040 11240 10725 10468 15419

Apr 10625 - 10940 104.75 11,735 28,978

May 10825 +025 10850 104.75 4.400 18.776

Jon 10940 - 10940 10640 3223 15,307

M 111 DO -1114010825 668 B20D

Aag (13.00 -040 11340 11140 120 5451

Total 35400134,123

B AATOBAL GAS K (1J3H1 tem panee pg wrap

Apr 9.480+0120 9500 9*10 975 3,935

Mey 9350+0490 9480 0290 180 Z1X

Total 24BS 23200

M RATURAL SAS WTfiEC (10400 BWflu.: S/meflfiU

Ufiart Day"* Open

price dar«e Mga Low HI ini

Apr 1495 +003B 1310 1.835 49223 57431

May 1-910 +0.035 1425 1455 15.334 23.175

-tan 1.925+0428 1440 1485 5237 20.181

Jrt 1550+0430 1455 1415 3.134 16,437

Awg 1480+0419 1470 1435 2421 14,098

Sep 1475+0413 1.985 1.945 242016491

Total 98457281241

a i— reign sasquK

HYlgX (42400 US pate; PUS gafcl)

GaM Cotas fCragarram New SowW

•2.00 0 monrhs -2JM

•2 M 12 morths -240

200

S urtca L squn.

179-181 68-72 42-44

Latest Day1*

prior dange Mgh

4270 +0.09 4335 4345 +0.08 44.15 4420 +0.13 4440 4480 +023 4440 44.70 -047 4440 44,75 +043 44.75

Low Vd M

4140 20236 34477 4240 8482 21.723 4150 3,188 20.D42 4345 838 1E447

44.30 382 4.144

44.75 212 34M

33464108463

a FREIGHT EHFFSQ UFFE (SiO/Wm piteiQ

Mar 1000 -10 1010 995 44 217

Apr 1015 -15 1015 1010 30 606

•H 885 -5 885 885 2 563

Ocl 985 -5 - - - 370

Jan 1015 -5 - - 39

Total W 2,105

Chsse Pres OH 964 958

PULP AND PAPER

Plug OMLX 1USS; 24 air ay tan}

Sett Day* Open

take eheute Ms* Low Vs) Ini Mar 40825 +240 - 284

Jun 43140 +2.00 43140 43140 10 413

Total IP 7Bi

FUTURES DATA

M fiteres dab anOatbr CHS.

Tea from the Tea Broken' Assooatwn Mombasa Thera was a strong and improved demand. Prices for the best BPis not maintained but crirer brighter and mediums were Irregular Exit on balance, firm. Neuter lower mediums aid plainer sorts were about 5 to IS cents dearer but poor leaWlbrous types tended in be netfecmO. Brighter PFIs tended dearer by about 3 fio 7 cents. Cokxay medians were dearer by S to 10 cants with fighter and brighter sorts up to IB cents dearer. Lower maefiunta and plain* aorta were a strong feature a**1 by S to 15 cents and- Gomennws more. Srightw nquoring p dusts

Doc 5943 -0.72 9020 59.70 911 16.53!

Mar 6145 +040 61.05 6040 181 2.175

Total 134W 83^29

M 0RAM6E J«CE Wffi p54«ag caBBteg

Mar 8340 -045 83.65 8340 129 375

May 6240 -145 8345 8140 450 16478

JM 8240 -035 8290 81.75 153 5488

Sep 8245 +040 8340 8340 51 2450

Mov 8340 +045 8345 82.70 50 1439

Jan 64 45 +0.70 8440 6440 71 1050

TOM 904 27416

VOLUME DATA

Open sneran and WMne rua dvren tar coronas traced on COMEX. NVIB. COT. MfC £ Off, CSCE end K Crate 01 an ore an In areas. VgUM & Open Merest totals ae hr afl traded monte.

INDICES

Renan (Base; 18/931 = 10Q

Mar 9

Marl rearfh

ago

yaw ago

13928

13587 1447.4

1690.0

CRB Mares (Base 1967 » 1QQ

Mar >

Mar fi aaate

aj»

18784

18673

-

M BSCI&prtiBess 1970 = 10W

MarS

MarS RMrih

jear *00

13907

13702 . 133.10

16002

LME WARQfOttSE STOOPS )mo|

AtenMin

+S7S

B

814725

Aknrinksn rita

-280

B

85700

Cfltoer

-1750

to

697050

Lead

-1.175

to

105050

Mrirri

+18

to

60766

at

-1.075

n

308 7S0

ita

-20

u

1005

Premean GBscfine X

5176-128

Gas 01

S1 13-1 1 5

Hfavy fad 01

S56-57

-07

Hartitha

5109-111

Jet (ini

SI 23- 124

-2

Dtesai

S116-1I8

NATURAL GAS Perce/hem)

Barton rip 0

970-9.60

+0.13

retaem mvb. 7U laxsn /otrti jsb are?

EURSI

GoM |per buy oa*

S292.45

+200

SM<« tper bvi

5320Ot

+7.50

Raaman iper tray ccj

S375.00

-170

PaBadhitn (per troy «.)

5346.00

-100

CUpper

67.0C

Lad QJS pnxLi

4500c

Tin (Kuaria Lurnpur)

1980r

Tai (New Yota

2S57

+10

Carte (tew wHgno

n Jap

+1 35"

Sheep Hie weignn

95S5p

+7 42*

nos Dhe MgtiOt

6409p

+3.43-

ton. day sugar mi

5151.10

-080

ton. day sugar Mai

321700

-170

Barter (Eng. few8

Una

Mata (US No! TaSow)

El 09 00

mad |US Dark Nwflu

Una

Rriftr (Maof

4570p

Brito riptlf

46.00P

Brito IKUISSNoH

25470m

•170

« iriMira ,'Lvu

Paftn 0s iMatey.£ 40- ^

Copra (Pwof *i50z

Soyteeans (0S»

COHm ftriooL'A' iroei E645 |fl

#orifiips i644 Superj 2S2p

i_IP wt Wtc* c Ccwse JIIK i lOT&af : hbs.6 r 1**1™ - tar-ag IMS <4r VUteMtawa

SCf itoao. -Sgoainaiterdar ■Xam

ot .utean uateend nmu P-tnpa t* ibs i£tt ; re?

ww d tup Ud

ACROSS

1 King captures knight, pos- sibly an islander (7)

5 Pop out and search round for something like the Dandy (7)

9 Lord missing a Roman poet? (5)

10 Almost regret one state's disaster (9)

11, 12 Where this puzzle offers a challenge? L9+5>

13 Space traveller found me in bed (5)

15 Stop filming after old-fash- ioned shot of a striker? (6,3)

18 What property-owners did with devilish tenant (9)

19 Nearly have a memory- lapse in the workshop (5)

21, 23 Cashing in, when group's on drugs (5-9)

25 Swan about during a dance she was involved in? (9)

26 Ctty has agreement for Ger- man and Spanish wine (5)

27 Get zany antics in oriental river (7)

28 When figure finally goes, destined to develop bulge? C7)

DOWN

1 Fellow interrupts man in charge, appearing baleful (7)

2 Are they found in the cop- shop or in ju£? (9)

3, 14 15 he waiting for a bus to Clapham? (3,2-3.$)

4 The flower of Greek youth

(9) ~.

5 Gathered material from cockney’s account of excis- ing experience (5)

6, 24 Material for models of exhibits in the Louvre?

0X5)

7 Language is the same where l across lives (5)

8 Means of communication picked up by crew an SF movie (7)

14 See3 . -

16 Crafty subordinate -worker 19)

17 Possibly bear ' being restricted in diet (9)

18 Pleasure-seeker - a sort of

Peter Pan? (7) '

20 Area over the border - is Wales or Scotland? (7)

22 Hairdresser's loams sorted out (5)

23 Nick is hard hit (5)

24 See 6 '

Solution 9333

aanaaBEis boohes 00B s 0 ci n HnoDHElHS E3HEHQC3

0 fi r.t Gi a o q s saaarsnaas dBase

El 0 q a B B □□□a aaasBBd

s dbs dnaastna bdcjq

B 13 DDE 0 E gaaaa aaBBincirans b s B B □0BQ0E] □OHHDraQB ana ei q b d aiaaBa ansanaBB

f . *+«

v- - ::

^ L

feC'- < '

For solutions to today's crossword call 0906 843 0060. Calls cost 60p a minute.

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28

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FES

ANCIAL TIMES WEDNESDAY MARCH fa;l^g

B

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T

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s

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tl

n

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t

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fif

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Nfev

LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE

Footsie edges higher during chancellor’s speech

FTSEATI-Krare index

29GC

Eqcfly^arts#^' Tunewr by «**£ <ga^ •:

By Steve Thompson,

UK Stock Market Editor

The FTSE 100, delicately poised at 6,219.6 as the chan- cellor of the exchequer rose to deliver his third Budget speech in Parliament, grad- ually edged ahead, gaining in confidence as the speech progressed with only a few hiccups spoiling the party.

The effect of a half-point fell in gilts, which were not pleased by the apparent gen- erosity of the chancellor’s package, was offset by the potential boost to consumer

spending that would result from the tax cuts announced.

With the market closing minutes before Gordon Brown announced next year’s income tax cut, the index ended 28.9 ahead at 6.237.7.

There were few problems for the market’s middle- ranking stocks or the small, caps, both of which ended not far short of their session highs. The FTSE 250 closed 16.5 firmer at 5.375.7 after a day's high of 5,378.3. while the FTSE SmallCap was finally 7.0 up at 2,322.9.

The market leaders had

made rapid progress at the start of the day, with the FTSE 100 racing up almost 80 points and getting to within 32 points of its previ- ous intra-day high - 6,319.8 - as dealers reacted to Wall Street’s overnight strength.

'Die Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 8 points, but the S&P 500 fait a record high. And the two leading Asian markets. Tokyo and Hong Kong, also made rapid progress.

Wall Street set an uncer- tain tone at the start of trad- ing yesterday, only to rally strongly as London closed.

The Initial reaction to the

Budget proposals was that the equity market would probably make progress.

The bead of market mak- ing at one big European investment bank described the Budget as “a bit boring”.

He added: “There were no really big shocks. The mar- ket feels okay as we speak, but it is near its peak and we will depend on Wall Street" Another said be saw the Budget as “neutral, as expec- ted. 1 think we’ll go better simply because the Budget is out of the way.”

David Butler, head of insti- tutional sales at Teather& Greenwood, said: “The only

surprise is that the chancel- lor left the drinks sector alone, which has to be bull- ish. But. truthfully, if Wall Street is down 150 points tonight, then we’ll come in lower. If it’s 200 points bet- ter, well come in higher.”

Bob Semple, UK equity market strategist at BT Alex Brown, said tbe Budget was biased towards the consumer and it looked as if it could boost the equity market.

“But there will be a worry over the likely performance of sterling and gilts.” he warned.

The Budget moves pro- duced plenty of shifts among

the various sectors, with the big drinks companies stabi- lising as tbe market regis- tered surprise that the chan- cellor had left duty on beer, wines and spirits tin touched.

Bat there was a significant sell-off in tbe water stocks and BAA as the chancellor gairf be would introduce a competition review.

Computer, IT stocks and Dixons, the high street retailer, were being chased after the proposed “comput- ers for sir measures.

Turnover in equities fin- ished just short of the Ibn mark, reaching 997.7m shares.

2500 .

Jan SaoK/TJE

incSces and ratios

FTSE

FTSE

FTSE 350 FTSc«-Ss»? FISM-SunsywW

19®

Tepr

£337 1 53757 29595 2861 13 2j67

Mar

Wi-

sest perfonwog sectors

1 UssuelHoteb

Z Support Seroces

3 Prqjeir—

4 PfcaiMcraBsafe

£ .meaner Treses

.283 FT 30 TUBS r«4,g'

*15 5 F15E Nw-ftis p-B MJ8

+129 FTSE lOOftn Mar

*1134 lUyitanrtett V«6

2£3 Long g&'aj at/ jU ratio .1X1 ... n9

Worst performing sectors- » ;

I wSEf - ~ ' r-. "TJ1-

__*20

+i 8

__+1.6

HatscWU Goods &Tgxb . Totracro-.

4 OS EiptonOon ft And

5 wane

Brewer presses its case

COMPANIES REPORT

By Joel KBbzd, Peter John and Martin Brice

Drinks group South African Breweries yesterday surged through the 500p barrier on its way to securing a place in the FTSE 100 index.

Official dealings in SAB started on Monday, and deal- ers were confident that the rise in the stock, up 22L to 507?<p. would see the com- pany join the premier list- ing.

The FTSE equity indices committee will meet today for its quarterly meeting at which the new constituents of the leading index will be named. The changes take effect on March 22.

Telecoms group Energis is also expected to join the FTSE 100 rankings. National Grid reduced its holding in the group from just over 7-1 per cent to 49.5 per cent ear- lier this year.

ABN Amro reiterated its buy stance on Energis and reiterated its £17.50 share price target. However profit- taking left the shares trailing 42* 2 to £15.55.

National Grid recovered from recent lows to close S ahead at 436’. p. Credit Lyon- nais recently upgraded stock to “add” from “reduce".

Supporters of Misys were

also confident the informa- tion technology group would return to the Footsie. Active buying helped the shares firm 8 to 645p.

Hopes of a stay of execu- tion for Tomkins faded and the shares gave up 3% to 206'. Ip. in trade of 6m. Hie stock is expected to fall out of the FTSE 100. as is Wil- liams, which hardened 4 to 364*p.

Tobacco company Gal- laher might also be ejected from the premier listing. The shares fell 15\ to 414V«p.

Dealers reported aggres- sive buying of mining group Billiton amid hopes that it will bold on to its place. The

company has been buying back its own shares through Strand Investment Holdings, but it denied it was the big buyer of stock yesterday. The shares gained 4'A to 141’Ap in trade of 15m.

Albright & Wilson, the phosphates group facing a bid from Albemarle of the US. jumped sharply as the prospect grew that another company would throw its hat into the ring.

The rise of 10 ‘-i to 140p took tbe shares well above Albemarle’s 130p a share offer and reflected a state- ment by Rhodia of France that it was “reviewing its options" with its advisers

Best and worst performing FTSE sectors

UfcHBftHOMS

-woo ;

Water

Uar Dec 1998

99

Mar

1 FT 30 INDEX !

Mar 9

MX e

MB'S

Mar 4

Mb 3

Tr ago

■MBS

low

FT 30

37755

37709

37678

37423

372BJ

3682.1

40043

2790.6

on fry yield

2.74

2.75

2.78

2.78

280

2.98

422

2.72

P* ratio na

2313

2109

23 02

2282

22.63

23.78

S41

1550

P.^ ram

2106

23XC

22*.

22-76

2237

2157

25.19

35.71

n M rn rrrjuixo CijR 4CSJ9 7.3S3; JS4 STO44 0a» l/TTS

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9 10

11

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13

14

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3.*n>9 37941

37792

37692

375*2

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37E5

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3807D

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C FTSE ttETttarji UntoJ 1999 M n0m resow* fa 1SSOS&

1 STOCK MARKET TRAD/NG DATA

liar 9

Mr 8

Mr S

Mar*

Mr 5

Yr ago

SEM Conjars

32.675

86.250

88.415

77.806

75.015

n'a

£S5t( >sbw»« Emit

-

-

3693*

39390

M

EauTf Urgxrst

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61.523

nta

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-

925.7

562.7

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Tea racket taaairst

86.122

85 917

76 W9

73 251

Icta) 0iroo*«r Emit

49672

5675-5

4904 7

48^0

Total stirs traded irp-t

■9977

1133.0

1263.9

11728

11712

Iradtpura lurrmti Emi

25.S

250

293

22.4

209

502

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ia*

106

12.4

104

99

96

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Rises and tattif

i 82«BtkMgtoaMM0WB j

i UFS &plty otfions

Tata fuses

880

> T«af H&K

84

Total ccniracts

33.826

Trial Fans

648

1 Total Lons

52

Crib

14^52

Same

1227

Puis

18.976

Mar 9 Uaa based cn Equity sftns tSKd or He London Share Settee.

following Monday’s recom- mended bid. Rhodia had been seen as a favourite to buy. It said it has bad pre- liminary discussions with A&W, but has not so far put forward any offer proposals.

British American Tobacco shed 15 to 557'/:p on heavy turnover of 12m shares after the group posted a decline in annual profits and warned that tbe current quarter would be unlikely to match last year's.

Martin Broughton, chair- man, said the difficult trad- ing conditions that had such a marked impact at tbe end of last year were persisting in the first quarter of 1999. BAT'S profit fell 16 per cent to £738m though this was largely due to a £61 3m charge related to tbe US legal settlement on claims for smoking-related diseases. Operating profit before exceptional*- was down only 3 per cent to £LS5bn.

Analysts were trimming profit numbers, with one of the most bearish pencilling in £l.l6bn for 1999.

WPP was the best per- former in the FTSE 100 with a rise of 21 L to 5461 5p. WestLB Panmure has been

highlighting the value gap between the stock and its main US competitors.

Barbour Index, the con- struction, health and safety data supplier, lifted 7 to 302'.ip on news of an acquisi- tion battle for the company. United News & Media and Emap are both reported to be in talks with Barbour. Havas of France is also rumoured to be interested.

United, which was earlier downgraded by Goldman Sachs, dipped I'i to 642:5p. Emap. which has an outside chance of joining the Footsie tomorrow, lifted 15 to £14.15.

Budget boosts Dixons

Electrical goods retailer Dixons Group moved strongly ahead after the chancellor of the exchequer unveiled new measures in the Budget to encourage computer use and informa- tion technolog;*' literacy. The shares closed up 50 at £12.62. Turnover reached 5.5m.

The commitment in the Budget to increase spending by schools on IT saw RM achieve a record high. It gained 46 to 625p.

Water stocks fell heavily after the chancellor raised the prospect of increased competition in the sector. Thames fell 47 to 98Sp. United Utilities 33 to 784: .-p and Severn Trent 37 to 552p.

Director share-buying and well-received figures helped Independent Insurance jump 30V- to 2S0p. Chief executive Michael Bright bought just

under 200.000 shares to take his holding to 6 per cent and deputy managing director Philip Condon bought 3SXJ00. The company announced a 22 per cent jump in under- writing profits.

London Forfaiting, the trade finance group whose share price was battered by a profit wanting in January, recovered 13 to 64 'rp foDow- ing speculation of a takeover at l20p a share.

Xycomed Amersbam rose 14 to 474p after an upgrade by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter on well-received fig- ures from tbe health care group on Monday. The US' broker increased its target on the shares from 525p to 60Gp. raised its earnings per share forecast from 2S.6p to 27.6p and reiterated its “strong buy".

Airports operator BAA fell as the Budget included an announcement that John Prescott, the deputy prime minister, would examine competition among UK air- ports.

The shares closed off 10* s at 695?. although one trans- port industry analyst said: “It is obviously a target because it is mostly a monopoly provider, but to break it up would be very difficult and it is already heavily regulated."

News in the Budget that the grvtrtment is to reduce tax os football pools to 17-5 per cent from 2S.5 per cent helped trigger interest in gamins and hotels ccmpany Ladbroke Group 2nd Zetters Group, the football pools and bingo clubs operator. The . former jumped 10L to300J,p with a big buyer said to have been active in the stock early in the day. while the latter added 7: = to 13ip.

Dealers were expecting strong buying today in the drinks sector after the chan- cellor left duty on alcoholic drinks unchanged. Bass rose 13V; to 900= :pr while Scottish &. Newcastle put on ll*a to 705:;p.

FUTURES AND OPTIONS

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289308

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3669

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ft FT Free Annual Reports Ctub You can obtain we currant omual iHports and U evailabJa quarterly raoorts of any companfaw on the US exchanges with a 4 symbol. To orU« mports ring (tntemfltkxid Actswsj 1-B04-3? D-8097 or give the’ names at the compante* whose reports you want and fax your request <0 (Inlematfonal Accessj T-304-3KM13S. Ropore* wO be sent me next work- ing day. subject to avaiisbSty. You can aba order omuls ai Mtpj/ www icttnc ccmf cgi-fcWW.

FINANCIAL TIMES WEDNESDAY MARCH ,0 ,999

31

GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS

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pm

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10356.100

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4.067300

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1315

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HASDAO TRAIUG ACnVTTY

Wage J7B.Ba.nW

ACTIVE STOCKS

BffifiBT HNHtS

jaRan

FRANCE

Mar

9

Itai

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Us

5

1938799 hjh Low

SnCBCMWUH

Mob Lor

9

IBr 199B/99

5 Uk U

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WiW 225 1509670 14773J6 14B9460 T72BU

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13880 389169 BUS

Vokoae : 5SM4UU

CMC 40 41SL30 417X87 418X56 438648 286254

D^S Hft 42H4B. CW* km 413D1G.

pass nwmfi Acnwrr

98451 : 300,186700

ACTIVE STOCKS

EMGGE5T MOTSS

ACTIVE STOCKS

Tuooay

Stocks

bated

Ctasr pin 17779.(110 813 KjEEiUnO 517 11.376400 230 10£&0X 122 6901WD 461

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7*59400 389

7,21 4.800 1000 MiM 630 6514DQ0 1270

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127

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218

270

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cm

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BNP

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1.216443 50J

096053 *X5

038.008 ICES 387/338 106.6

73451! 3752 727532 4154 723J9SO 77.4

707 J(D 118 031507 1155

806600 2312

D^s TumSsj ctage

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-2.7 -4.1

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1240

GERMANY

Mar 5

Fab 26

Feb IS

Year ago

Dow Jones ind. Div. YMd

139

1.B7

1.63

Mar 3

Fab 24

Fab 17

Year ago

S&PM.Dhf. yield

1.17

1.14

1.19

1.39

S & P hd. P/E ratio

3&33

38.67

37.72

2B.76

DdCmp

Otafe

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wan

3Cm

PBramT

MCMfcm

LmOh

Suds Close MM Nice 46551 BOO 45V. 39.642500 231 19516900 301 18506800 lift 13506700 1041 11.488500 ISO >1522500 2S» 10.937.900 17M 16181500 851 6198500 *7W

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Pom

39«a

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-21

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9

Mar

8

liar

5

1908/99

99 m

Stocompfeta, High Lew

Mr

9

iib mb

6 5

1098/99

H# Low

Own compfedOB UgN Low

MX 47514G 478659 483609 BT7153

QVe aeh 4881 IB tort lor 472755

FRA»snnr tbadk wnnrfY

389606 B17L4J 931.18

Wong : (■)

FT5E 100 6237.7 62065 8365

Dirt M0E 6287 A xsefs tar 61965 UNDOM TMHN6 ACTIVITY

63075 46487 08075

Vehne : 907,700500

ACTIVE STOCKS

KGS5T MUVtRS

ACTIVE STOCKS

BUSES! HOVaS

1200

1190

INDEX FUTURES

1 2 3 4 5 8 9 Mar 1999

Tuesday

Sua

Onw

Dam

Tuesttw

□osa

toY*

toy's

ran

pm

ctonge

Ups

MacfcW

Fnseau

FsMC

t*to*

lluu

pm

eanga

ehga %

Bnw

LufDai

SlemB

Dl Td

BASF

380301

3023B5

281.471

226368

220*43

32.6

IBLl

9X3

404

31.4

-02

-aia

+02

-ai

898

IS

58

11.9

+74

+14

+45

+08

+113

+10.1

+84

+72

HTchM

Veto

brand*

DmhCh

HWE

192308

174386

171328

170288

154.553

413

453

253

82.4

373

+4US

-01

-015

+06

UOfiliO

HoBn*

Ur^+AI

SAP

MHV

2*

448

280

1016

-2

-37

-175

-45

-7.7

-78

-63

-86

traded pm 21504510 59* 21.512510 167V. 21,475580 Z7V* 20537530 367W 19,138.130 146+1 BP Mam 175S5590 030 BBM 1557B5B0 1414

Rental MW 15509,790 370V Uadee 13509.490 724* Br AW Tab 12^95,480 557*

Two SIR SW» <M ASM

Day*a

Ttoadar

Qae

tm

DWt

ctwnQB

UPS

Span hst

pm

cnanga

mgs *

115

+2B1)

+293

♦3h

,4U

Ion Fartflng

84 It

+13

+252

+ln

Tenwna

B4»

+19

+253

MtamuR to

405

+66

+181

-I

TnnttaDH

IM

+30H

+187

Cop

88

-25

-22.1

+14¥i

4m

+4H

-183

-W

-IS

Tokw 01

48»

-10

-177

SOP 960

Open

Change

High

Ed. voL

Open (XL

Mar

Sat

128X20

127920

129530

-4.10

128X80

127X80

mfcdzs

Open

SaflfUca

Change

wgb

Low

CAC-40 (200 s MW

Open

dupe

HW

Est wL Open tat

OOB

Open

Change

Mgh

Est. Ml

Open bl

10X416 32,712 Est Ml

281.900 131.419 Open H.

Mb

Jill

MX

4213.0

42325

4172.0

41545

-28.0

-775

42375 4193 0

41365

41385

49585

1,182

143516 Mb 8.465 Apr

EOTEX

73050

72725

72850

727.75

+350

+2.75

73225

73050

72050

72050

17587

1505

118,754

1.427

Jin

Open!

1 4870.0

1 to phvom

15050.0

+3105

+3400

WORLD MARKETS AT A GLANCE

tony

9

151200

150500

1998/99

mi-

lts 7U0 14820.0

37,747

9.627

117.288

117538

Jun

4B35J)

48635

47B8.0

48135

+10

-10

199B09

in

i Yteu iji M Ctutzy mb

Mr

5

48710

48930

1990/99

Mgh

47275

47565

48.768

1646

2402*9 liar 140394 Jm

7221.0

7175.0

72805

7224.0

*880

+875

1996/99

LOW

■J Reu P/E Dounky

Mar

9

7286.0

7224.0

IBGB/Sfl

••OH

72000

71410

19.725

1212

121153

15.861

iaoa/99

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M WaM 28208 29295 29025 2M050 4/2/90 amt an i/hb

AS HMng 5667 5706 5665 713.10 23/4/98 48980 3U8O0

43 117

ZS3 211

tafia BSE Sens. 3784.11 373110 364906 4260198 21/498 ZAK.16 20(1098

1 6 P CMC 500 73071 73681 72756 81582 21/498 55758 2V1098

Banded Is poetJu&t a* MB tagiqp un 1 okctm string on c * tar ween panaw la tw nd

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M AW MB 118BL7B 1181N 117156 162856 2GI598 SB25B V1096 loT MUddrb gatas soar dae ft Bank doatti tame b rescue Sr second auecoam »*■

JUkartS caid 37942 38456 38867 554,10 2/398

a&ed rit tta nfia os Imata tmried striad mad it toe on daritg sear mawteag.

21/9/98

BUL 30 467923 477127 479827 61»59 22M/S8 359908 2/1 MB

PS 20 1079553 1100188 1107652 1429100 23W98 811*51 271098

ri iri B ri id JOtaoe sdtig md redceSoa at gpesm li Futyae trtaM oytawte

B IM fire 7070 w 7267 41LB1 STUB >851 5rtMa

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12.4

aaao

tae at aaahg gains 1

330550 3322.45 3346.17 388132 671/99

; Eunpem trotters troop Anuta) kt tdkmoan taring

2357 JB 1071/98 157 22L9

Bens Gowspa 9638J0 97885 94655 1229950 ISHflB

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47SUX1 1CVM8 m

TSE lOOf 397.44 397.10 39151 47553 2SW9B

MMM Wrist 299954 300X33 308133 438081 10QS8

WESOOCtaitat 651140 650143 6415.11 7B22J0 22/4/96

tT*flnto§§ 348258 3485JB 3449JM 399551 25S98

fMf Ay weak kxteami prated and 9 atm gas oncte.

32491 V10/96 17 T75

250010 31/8738 533570 57TW98 271424 571 OSB

CHa GPA Genf 391476 391252 IStyte taper on no* tot aarittktes k> Boris 1

389756 489155 17/3/98

, to vntB again on Bwtea^

296095 14/9/98 fcatoate

13 124

Ota Shasta B 2138 2164 2267 5B5B 10208 2138 9/309 16

Shenzhen B 4X95 4468 4547 9867 1W20B G65 9009

M lattouterer oatets sapped to new km rih Stasftn B stem taeaUng pnkaa tecon! tier set m February &

283

MowMa B8 92237 93233 92279

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141X48 7/108

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Oadi nsfadficPX 50

3543 340.4

3506

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58X44 56065

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EDI* Can SE Gen

44521 43969

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FMand HnGenata

637300 633461

6237.49

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322043 12/108

173

226

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225 205

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GAC 40 415950 417557 418956 438858 17/7/98 286254 12/108

SU aatM&tsd Bo tbf betav pktem tg> t Us krirtg toomsoa-CSF Od tans

111

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CMXf 475646 478859 483959 6171^3 207798 389650 871*98

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Once ABWns OmeM 344409 333456 325357 340605 15/299 139X13 29/108 1.47 262

FTSEffiSE 20 2127.13 205697 200151 218348 15/209 75618 29/108

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Bong Kong Haig Seng 1053255 1026359 10241 12 1181060 25008 860042 13/603 3£9 119

HSCC (W 0* 75451 72115 72913 177559 27iBW 57557 1096

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EEDOMl

542370

5(1869

538906

547X61 21/408

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118231

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980.11 15/1098

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137996

134858

133645

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Jam

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18414

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51966

51662

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27

151

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Bfiadra

PC

457274

448085

432780

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142

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Pristeris

CBS IWnGea

12856

12327

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149360 20/708

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616

262

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719.4

723 3

84588 27/708

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215580

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540164

539133

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177224

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103703

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174631 3108

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11X7330 90096

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-7

FINANCIAL TIMES WEDNESDAY' -MARCH

STOCK

MARKETS

f

VP*-

***

Equities struggle after sell-off in bonds

WORLD OVERVIEW

A renewed burst of selling in bond markets overshadowed trading in equities yester- day, reversing initial gains in Europe and sparking early profit-taking in the US, writes Jeffrey Broom.

A round of unexpectedly solid European data was the main focus for bond inves- tors, notably the German unemployment figures for February, which tipped lower to confound analysts'

forecasts for the second month running.

Backed by another upbeat French consumer confidence Index, the data allowed ger- minating theories about an end to the downswing for euro-zone interest rates to put down even deeper roots.

The sell-off for bonds lifted 10-year German yields to 4.2 per cent, against the 3.6 per cent of late January. Much of the selling was said to be futures-related, but even so it ruffled sentiment in equi-

ties and most markets ended lower in volatile trading.

Frankfurt gave up 0.2 per cent and similar fails could be traced right across tbe main centres, with the benchmark CAC-40 index in Paris swinging between plus 50 points and minus 16-

Helsinki. buoyed by tech- nology giant Nokia, which consistently accounts for 60 per cent of daily trading vol- ume in Finnish equities, managed to notch up a fur- ther record high. But yester-

day’s broad trend - not helped by a London market on hold ahead of the UK Budget - did nothing to dis- pel the suspicion that inves- tors are still no closer to p Tiding fresh direction.

In a sense, tbe big share price event of the day was in Tokyo, where Sony surged almost 9 per cent after announcing radical restruct- uring. involving the loss of 17,000 Jobs worldwide. In a market made moribund by political and corporate inde-

cision, the news was seen as a landmark.

Tokyo rallied SL2 per cent, a pattern that helped lift Hong Kong, which gained 2.6 per cent in spite of a resur- gence of talk about a Chi- nese devaluation.

The renminbi wobbled and took a number of neighbour- ing currencies with it. nota- bly tbe Filipino peso. The share market came off 1.5 per cent

In recent months, volatil- ity' among emerging markets

has risen to unprecedented levels, keeping many inter- national fund managers firmly at bay. But Morgan Stanley Dean Witters claims to have picked up on an encouraging trend for the sector.

According to Robert Pelosky of Morgan’s emerg- ing market team, volatility shows dear signs of peaking, which could bode well for broad emerging market equity returns over the next 12 months.

emerging market focus

Caracas s

h

amid reforms

Wall Street climbs after sluggish start

Zurich rises as rate fears fade

aiROPE

AMERICAS

A series of new deals sent Wall Street climbing by mid- day, as the overall tone of trading picked up after a sluggish stan, writes John Lahore in New York.

The Dow Jones industrial Average turned sharply higher shortly before noon. gaining 55.78 or 0.57 per cent at midday at 9.783.39.

IBM rose S4£ to S184, but Walt Disney gave up SV« at S35ft after Goldman Sachs lowered its earnings per share estimates for the entertainment company's earnings for 1999 and 2000.

The broader market was higher as well. Tbe Standard & Poor's 500 index climbed 8.91 to 1.291.64. The strongest performer was the Nasdaq composite index, weighted in high-tech shares, which was up 28.52 or 12 per cent to 2.426.14.

In the internet sector, Lycos surged more than 16 per cent or S14 to S97?-. after a battle for control of the online search engine emerged. Lycos board mem- ber David WethereU. who is also head of marketing firm CMGI. resigned and vowed to fight for new terms in the takeover of Lycos by USA Networks. The move sent shares of CMGI up $17# or more than 8 per cent to S217V:.

Other internet stocks were higher, including online bookseller Amazonxom, up 8 per cent to S132 after a report that it had filed a suit against leading retailer Wal- Mart.

Online investing company E*Trade surged 8 per cent or $3ft to S50ft after Volpe Brown started coverage with a “buy" rating.

Other online traders were up as well, with Siebert

Financial up $4% or more than 20 per cent to S27V*.

Shares of RJR Nabisco surged $1% or more than 6.5 per cent to $30'.-i after the sale of its international tobacco business for SSbn to Japan Tobacco. The deal helped send shares of Philip Morris, a Dow member stock and believed to be one of the bidders for the RJR unit, up Sift to tio#-

Alaska Air fell Sft to $51 despite a raised rating by Grunial to “buy" from “bold".

American Home Products gained SI# to S62ft after Merrill Lynch raised its rat- ing to “near-term accumu- late” from “neutral

The Russell 2000 index of small-corapany shares was up 2.09 at 402.15.

TORONTO was little changed in early trading with sentiment held in check by a weak start for energy stocks and a profits warning from metals leader Alcan Aluminium.

Alcan tumbled CS1.40 to CS36.25 after the company announced that its first- quarter earnings would be lower than expected. As a result, the 300 composite Index was up 4.27 at 6.507.70 at noon.

Oils were also dull. Responding to renewed weakness for international oil prices. Imperial Oil lost 75 cents at CS25.70.

In telecoms. Northern Telecom shed 90 cents at CSS8.40.

Colds were a firm feature. Among leaders. Barrick added 80 cents at C$29.45 and Placer Dome put on 75 cents at C$19.40.

Banks were relatively sub- dued . Bank of Montreal eased 10 cents to C$64.10 and Canadian Imperial gave up a similar figure at C$37.

Mexico City adds to gains as peso rallies

Shares in ZURICH put their recent consolidation behind them as receding worries about the outlook for inter- est rates and some technical factors sent the market 1.1 per cent higher. The SMI index put on 81.3 to 7,267.2.

Banks were at the centre of attention with UBS gain- ing SFrl2 to SFr4S7 and CS Group SFrlO to SFr253. Ana- lysts saw a price target of SFr29O-SFr340 after the share broke out of its recent range.

Baer jumped SFtiOI to SFr4,721 after the private bank said it would launch another share buy-back scheme at the end of March.

Insurer Zurich Allied lost SFr25 francs to SFrfl30 after announcing that pre-tax restructuring costs were $lbn higher than expected.

Roche certificates gave up early gains to close SFr7Q lower at SFrl8,370 ahead of 1996 results published after the market dosed. Its 3 per cent rise in net profit proved in line with expectations.

Ares Serono turned back from a high of SFr2.240 and closed SFr60 lower at SFr2.140 in spite of reporting 1998 profits at the upper end of expectations. Ciba slipped SFrl to SFrl09.50 after Mon- day’s rise. ABB rose SFr67 to SFrl .841 after the stock broke through technical resistance at SFrl ,820.

FRANKFURT ended a vol- atile session with the Xetra Dax index off 0.96 at 4,790.47 after touching 4.869.47 in early trading.

A downbeat trading state- ment from Adidas, warning of flat sales in the US and Europe, sent tbe sports shoe group down €5.05 at €79-95. HypoVere ins bank rose €1-15 at €52 after an upgrade from sell to hold by BHF Bank.

Better than expected results from Bayer and plans for a 10 per cent share buy- back. left the stock up 33 cents at €32.68. BASF ended 17 cents ahead at €31.32 in spite of company warnings of a difficult year to come.

AMSTERDAM shed 3225 at 522.27 on tbe AEX index with retailer Ahold leading the way down with a decline of 2.8 per cent. Ahold's results were disappointing to

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Oct 1998 . 59

MEXICO CITY pushed ahead strongly In early trading, adding to the gains of nearly 8 per cent built over the past three sessions.

The IPC index was up 105.80 or 2.4 per cent at 4^66.65 by midsession.

There was strong buying of blue chips as the peso ral- lied in the foreign exchanges and Wall Street reversed ini- tial weakness. Telmex rose 75 centavos to 30.25 pesos

and Televisa 3.40 pesos to 152.40.. Retailer Cifra gained 28 centavos to 13.70 pesos.

SAO PAULO pared early gains to send the Bovespa index down 138 to 9,648 at midsession. Although Mon- day’s accord with the Inter- national Monetary Fund brightened the Real, which jumped 2 per cent against the dollar, sentiment was said by traders to have taken an uncertain turn.

Jo’burg hits 7-month highs

SOUTH AFRICA

Johannesburg closed mod- estly higher, helped by gold- led gains that pushed the broad market to its highest intraday levels for seven months. The overall index closed 11.4 up at 6.286.6, off a high of 6,342.4, a level last hit in August at the height

of the rand and global emerging markets crisis.

Golds put on 27.8 at 992.4 after breaking above tbe 1. 000-point level for the first time in three months. Indus- trials rose 54.3 to 72295.7. De Beers tumbled 600 cents to R100 after it reported a sharper slide than expected in full-year earnings.

Nikkei jumps back above 15,000

ASIA PACIFIC

Shares in TOKYO closed above 15,000 yesterday for the first time in more than three months, buoyed by a surge in high-techs and news of Sony's restructuring. writes Alexandra Nusbaum.

The Nikkei 225 Average gained 317.65 or Z2 per cent to 15,096.70, its session high. The low was 14342.17. The Nikkei 300 climbed 3.46 to 232JB2. and the Topix index of all first-section issues jumped 14.76 to 1,162.51.

Momentum was positive with rising shares outpacing fall ere by 646 to 522.

Sony, the electronics giant, soared 8.9 per cent or Y89Q to Y10340 on news of a restructuring that would cut 17,000 jobs over four years and transform three affili- ates into wholly owned sub- sidiaries by January.

Stocks in Sony's three affiliates surged. Sony Music Entertainment climbed to its maximum daily limit of Y1.000 to Y8.250. Sony Preci- sion Technology was up Y30Q to Y2.030 and Sony Chemicals Y500 to Y5.250.

The electric machinery sector climbed 3.1 per cent, with Hitachi up 5 per cent or

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Y4T at Y808. Toshiba climbed 4.8 per cent or Y39 to Y8I3. NEC rose Y45 to Y1.270.

The yield on Japan’s 10- year government bond rose 7.5 basis points to 1.7 per cent following comments by Masaru Hayaml, governor of the Bank of Japan, that be expected a rise in interest rates.

The interest rate sensitive real estate sector rose 2.6 per cent, with Mitsubishi Estate climbing Y49 or 4 per cent to Y1.23S, Mitsui Fudosan was up Y19 or 2 per cent at Y976.

The banking sector closed up 12! per cent, with Fuji Bank gaining 5.8 per cent or

Y30 to close at Y517. Indus- trial Bank of Japan climbed 3.5 per cent or Y22 to Y630.

In Osaka, the OSE rose 86 to 15.667.

HONG KONG got a boost from Microsoft's planned cooperation with Hongkong Telecom and the govern- ment’s Cyberport project. The Hang Seng index closed 268.96 or 2.6 per cent higher at 10,532.95 in moderate turn- over of KK$5.6bn.

Speculative buying drove Telecom up to a high of HK314.90 before pulling back to close 20 cents easier on the view that while the co-operation agreement was welcome, it was unlikely to have much impact on earn- ings for some years.

MANILA moved lower. A wobble for the peso prompted a partial unwind- ing of the gains built up over the two previous sessions. Brokers said sentiment had been unsettled by the peso breaking back above 39 to the dollar. The composite index closed off 29237 or 1.5 per cent at 1598.41.

Financials were in the fir- ing line. Ayala Land lost 50 centavos at 12 pesos and Metropolitan Bank retreated 5 pesos to 295 pesos.

BANGKOK tumbled 2.1 per cent as investors took profits in a dozen small com- panies that could be delisted as part of a recent move by the stock exchange.

Investors were also con- cerned about a batch of financial reform bills now passing through parliament They feared the adoption of the bills, which are facing opposition in the senate, could be delayed until the end of the session on March 22. undermining the rebound of the Thai economy.

The SET index closed 7.09 lower at 329.59.

KUALA LUMPUR surged 2.1 per cent on index-buying by foreign funds and large , trades by unidentified local buyers that suggested the government was trying to boost sentiment artificially , ahead of elections in the Bor- * neo state of Sabah.

The composite index i gained 10.67 to 530.53. j

Conglomerate Renong and ' its partner UEM contributed to tbe upbeat mood by announcing a substantial debt restructuring plan, but the move hardly reflected on shares. Renong was down 0.5 cents to 80 cents and UEM unchanged at MS2.19.

B'share price 084

the extent that they were right on targe L News of a S1.75bn US takeover also unsettled sentiment spark- ing talk of a share issue to finance the deal. The stock lost 95 cents at €32.55.

Hoogovens dipped to €27.20 before closing all square at €27.60 after an upgrade to neutral at Salo- mon Smith Barney which lifted its target price for the steel leader to €30.

Wolters Kluwer and Elsev- ier. which report tomorrow, moved in opposite direc- tions. Kluwer added €1.55 at €176 but Elsevier shed a cents at €13.95.

Buhrmann slipped 65 cents to €16.25 on concern for the office goods group's 20 per cent stake in South African paper group, Sappi.

PARIS slid throughout the day before picking up strength in the afternoon while upbeat February con- sumer confidence figures provided little support. The CAC-K) ended 16.17 or 0.4 per cent lower to 4,159.80.

Most of the action came from volatile car part pro- ducer Valeo which surged for tbe second day running, adding €3.10 to €78. Analysts said Valeo may be benefiting from the good 1999 sectoral outlook in the US, where it made an acquisition last year. Speculation about a European acquisition were also said to be circulating.

Tbomson-CSF continued its retreat ahead of Its 1998 results published tomorrow. The share lost €1.90 or 6J per cent to €28.40 while Lagardere, which reports today, rose €1.50 to €35.50.

HELSINKI reached an

all-time high for the second day running, with the Hex index up 44.09 to 6,378.90. Pohjola trimmed most of its early gains on profit-taking after Jumping 8 per cent to a record intra-day high of €60.50. Shares in the Insurer closed €1 higher to €57.

MILAN closed higher with a handful of blue chips push- ing the market up and an inflow of funds supporting prices. The Mibtel index put on 319 to 24.644.

Fiat spurted 4.1 per cent to €2.80 after comments from honorary chairman Gianni Agnelli that it was hard to predict the group’s future-

Chairman Paolo Fresco also indicated the group had not ruled out bidding for the bus and truck divisions of Sweden's Scania or pursuing an interest in remaining Volvo divisions.

Tim pared some gains but still closed 4.4 per cent

higher at €6.39 on market speculation over a possible Telecam-Tbn merger-

Olivetti bucked the (rend to close 3.1 per cent lower at €2.79 an news that British fund managw Standard Lite

had the probable support of investors holding as extra 8 per cent of Telecom shares in addition to tbe 12 per cent it says are definitely against Olivetti's bid.

HDP put on 5.3 per cent to 60 cents on a repent that the group's RCS Editori publish- ing business might be inter- ested in buying the Telemon- teczrlo TV network.

MADRID ended off intra- day highs after depressed European markets and a drop in January consumer confidence ended early gains.

The general index closed 4 higher to S53.22, helped by news that the IMF had reached an agreement with Brazil securing future loans.

Companies with big Latin American exposure such as Banco Santander, up 54 cents to €19 and Telefbnica. up 32 cents to €4L92, were the main beneficiaries.

Endesa advanced 0.9 per cent after Chilean pension funds called a new share- holder vote in its subsidiary Enersis. which could allow Endesa to get a majority stake in the company. The stock rose 21 cents to €23.89.

Written and edited by Mfcbaei Morgan, Bertrand Benoit, Peter HaH and Mark Herfihy

Venezuela's stock market, the world’s best performing only three years ago. has all but disappeared from view.

Following a drop of 25 per rent for the year to date in dollar terms, transactions have come to a standstill. Daily volumes, once around S15m-$2Qm, have shrunk to an average $lm and touched $630,000 last week.

The list of investor con- cerns is long. The economic recession is deepening, the price of oil - the country's main source of income - remains depressed, while the government struggles with a widening budget deficit caused by a collapse in ofl revenue. To fop it Off, politi- cal uncertainty promises to linger on the horizon for much of the year.

Emergency tax and budget reform measures would raise only 3 to 4 per cent of gross domestic product, according to BBO, a local brokerage. Even after the measures, “the budget deficit remains at 7 per cent and the govern- ment seems to have no Idea of how to reduce it further," BBO says.

Many investors feel Hugo CMvez. who took office as president in February, is concerned more with his radical political reform ngPTiria than with the coun- try's economic challenges.

His plans for an assembly with powers to rewrite the constitution opens the way for prolonged uncertainty. The assembly is to start this year and could last six to 12 months.

“As long as the political noise over this assembly does not subside and the government does not present a coherent economic plan, there will be no major com- mitments by investors." said Gabriel Osio. president of Econoinvest, a local broker- age. “I think well see this situation continue at least for another six months.”

Meanwhile, the economic recession is deepening. The government last week admit-

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UMVERSTTA COMMBKIAIE UMGIBOCCOM

§ University College Dublin

European Postgraduate Degree in Fund Management

Applications are invited for the first edition of the European postgraduate programme in Fund Management The degree will entail one semester at Bocconi University in Milan, one of the leading Italian institutions for economic education and research, and one semester at University College Dublin, Ireland. The postgraduate programme will enjoy full sponsorship by UniCredrto ftaliano - Europlus Research and Management ana will offer the following courses:

Jufy-December 199 ft University Commerriale Luigi Bocconi Milan

Corporate Finance (Proff. Andrea Buraschi and David Goldreich)

Fixed Income Markets and Instruments (Prof. Mark Br'rtten-Jones)

Portfolio Management and Asset Allocation (Prof. Charles Cuny)

Advanced Corporate Finance (Proff. David Goldreich and Francesca Comelli)

Options & Futures (Prof. Anthony Neuberger)

Basic Mathematics for Finance (Prof. Lorenzo Peccati)

Basic Probability for Finance (Prof. Sandra Fortini)

Advanced Probability for Finance (Prof. Donato M. Cifarelli)

Numerical Methods tor Pricing Derivatives (Prof. Francesco Corielli)

Financial Regulation and Value at Risk (Proff. Harold Rose and Da vide Menini)

Risk Management and Financial Engineering (Prof. Andrea Buraschi)

January-June 2000: University College Dublin - Dublin

Strategic Finance (Prof. Cormac Mac Fhionnlaoich)

Management of Banking Institutions (Prof. Raymond Kinsefla) Portfolio Management (Prof. Simon Stevenson)

Financial Engineering (Proff. Ronan O'Connor and James Golden)

The academic courses will be supplemented by a two-month internship organized by EuroPtus Research and Management Dublin, the asset management company of the UniCredrto Italiano group and by a series of seminars and conferences held by leading experts and authorities on themes including: The Competitive Evolution of the Fund Management Industry - The ECB: Monetary Policy and its Impact on European Capital Markets - The European Commission and Capital Market Re-Regulation - New Trends in European Portfolio Diversification - Financial Crises: macroeconomic fundamentals and market response - Legal Aspects and Cases in Financial Contracts and Litigations - Issues in Organisation, Cross Cultural Management and Human Resources in Fund Management Firms - Investor Relations.

Applications are invited from high-performing individuals with a strong interest in fund management. Postgraduate qualifications and/or work experience are desirable, but not essential. A detailed CV, a state- ment of professional objectives, motivations for application (no more than 500 words) and two recent pas- sport-size photographs should be sent, prior to April 12. 1999. to:

University Bocconi

_ . Professor Franco Bruni - Istituto di Economia

Via Sarfatti. 25 - 20136 Milano - Italy - Tel. 39-02.5836.5329 - Fax 39-02.5836.5314

For detailed information on course contents please visit our internet site at: http://www.credrt.it/universrta/eu-degree

A committee will select applicants for interviews by the students prior to the end of May 1999. Travelling expenses for travelling and accomodation in Dublin will be finance are required to pay a non-reimbursable fee of Euro 2,500.

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UniCredito Italiano

Financial Times Surveys

Tanzania

Friday March 26

For lurtfier inlormalion pk-asu contact:

Mark Carwardi no in London

Tel: -44 171 -8734880 Fax: +44 171 S73 3241 email: mark. car-ward ineS'FT.com - or Rohit Devant in Dar Es Salaam Tel: +255 51 112927 Fax: +255 51 113181 email: prnintnfrica.corri

FINAN Cl AL TL\fES

No FT. nc. comment.

~ ' -■

ted tbe economy would. do well to contract by’hhjy 1 per cent of GDP. Private sec- tor economiste. foresee, nega- tive growth of between.? and 4 per cent of GDP.

Already bit . by high inter- est rates, all bat a few Ven- ezuelan companies now face a dramatic collapse In '.con- sumer demand and struggle to pay loans taken out dur- ing the promising upswing of 1997 and early 1998.

The woes of paper manu- facturer, Venepal, struggling to restructure its $68m for- eign debt, is indicative oT corporate Venezuela. Bad loans now represent nearly 6 per cent of the banking sec- tor’s loan portfolio, up from 3 per cent a year ago.

The book value of many companies for exceeds their capitalisation, and -some ana- lysts believe they can spot value, despite the gloomy economic outlook.

Yet as Gonzalo Alonso, a trader with Activalores bro- kerage. says: “It doesn’t make sense to talk about values. It’s been some time since the market has responded to fundamentals.” Mr Alonso's recommenda- tion to clients is to “go for liquidity". That, he admits, leaves just half a dozen blue chips, such as the telecom- munications _ provider CANTV and the power util- ity Electriddad de Caracas.

■T; !

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